A Likely Scenario for the Palestinian State

Beyond the Cusp ^ | March 3, 2011 | B. Saunders

[bsaunders]

The world certainly seems overly determined to form a Palestinian State with at least part of Jerusalem as the Capital and borders as close as possible to the 1949 Armistice line, also known as the Green Line. One of the major problems with this concept is that when the Green Line was established, it was stated that it was not to be construed or used as an actual boundary which was to be decided through negotiations. By comparison, all of the other problems other than the claimed Arab “Right of Return” are dwarfed by the tactical vulnerability using the Green Line as the border would impose upon Israel. To illustrate the problem, let’s take a look at how I envision a Palestinian State developing once it has sufficient formal recognition to be established using the Green Line as a border with a few exceptions in Jerusalem, mainly dealing with the Temple Mount and Jewish Quarter of the old city.

Using the actions taken by the Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip after Israel removed their citizens and troops, giving the Palestinian Authority full command and control, we can predict with relative accuracy what will happen when the West Bank has been made into an independent Palestinian State and all the Israelis, both civilian and IDF, have been removed and resettled inside Israel. The initial celebrations will likely include the destruction of every vestige of the previous Jewish presence. Every house, barn, business, community building, Synagogue, and other structures will either be burned to the ground or totally dismantled and destroyed. It is also highly probable that the crops, trees, vineyards, and supporting structures such as irrigation equipment and storage silos will also be put to the torch. No consideration will be given to saving and using anything left behind by the Jews as having been touched, let alone built, by infidels, especially Jewish infidels, makes everything abhorrent thus necessitating its destruction. While this wilding is being carried out for the first couple of weeks, there will also be great celebrations in the streets with the handing out of candies and sweets. Many rounds of bullets will be fired into the air to mark this jubilant declaration of statehood and the total removal of the Jews.

Following the celebrations, within the first six months, the first rockets and mortars will be fired from the hilltops overlooking the narrow nine mile wide middle of Israel. Over time this will escalate. Soon, there will start to be casualties as the attacks increase in numbers and lethality. At some point the use of antiaircraft missiles will be used and either a departing or landing passenger jet will be hit with horrendous results. As such attacks increase, eventually Ben Gurion Airport will, out of necessity to save lives, be shut down and all air traffic will have to go to airports in the Negev. While these terror attacks continue to rise in lethality and frequency, and the victim count increases logarithmically, the UN, EU, European countries individually, Russia, United States, and the whole World in general, will be demanding Israel show restraint and not retaliate or take any martial response to these provocations and rely on negotiations and World bodies such as the UN or the ICC to address and mediate the situation. Israel will be told by friend and foe alike that the Palestinian State must be allowed time to put into place structures of government that will address the lawless attacks being committed by a small number of Palestinians. Israel will receive assurances that the vast majority of Palestinians simply want peace and be allowed to live their lives and raise their children just like everybody else.

I doubt that anything the world may say or whatever pressures they apply will restrain Israel from militarily responding to these attacks. Once it escalates to the point that Israelis can no longer go about their daily lives or the first few planes are shot down while landing or leaving Ben Gurion International Airport, Israel will have no alternative other than retake the hills and ridgelines being used for these attacks as they overlook the Israeli lands in the coastal valley below. No matter world opinion, threats, warnings, offers of sending peacekeepers, or any other posed solution, this time Israel will be taking this area with the full intent of retaining their control and ownership as to do otherwise negates any progress. Once the Israeli government does respond to these attacks, it will be with the support of the vast majority of the Israeli people. Even if the decision is to take back most of Judea and Samaria, the only question will most likely be to which country will those dispossessed of their land be sent and how much restitution, if any, will they receive. This situation will be seen by Israel as an appropriate response to attacks on their people and society that was not only tantamount to a declaration of war, but an actual declaration of war to which Israel is within their rights as a nation to respond, the rest of the world and their opposition and disgust be damned.

Beyond the Cusp

[bsaunders]

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