Iraqi Army Development Status January 2012

The Iraqi Army is the most developed service in the Iraqi Security Forces but, it has major components missing. The absence of sufficient support, anti-tank, logistics, artillery, and especially the total absence of air defense, makes the IA incapable of effectively fighting any of the countries bordering Iraq. Without those components, the IA is just an internal security force – unable to successfully fight a conventional war.

At the moment I doubt most of its neighbors are in any condition to fight an offensive war anyway.

Iran has de-emphasized its regular army due to political risks, and has few operational tanks and aircraft, and those I doubt are particularly effective. I also doubt they would risk a foreign conventional war as it would also increase their domestic political risks. The days they could send in human waves of fanatic conscripts is over. They have to worry in what direction the conscripts will point the guns. They will likely limit themselves to supporting rebels, as they have been doing for years of course.

Syria is in a civil war and is in no shape to conventionally invade anyone.

Saudi Arabia is a paper tiger. Its got lots of equipment but I doubt the Saudi government or Saudi military have the stomach for a fight. At best they would support rebels.

Turkey is the most powerful, readiest and most potentially dangerous of the neighbors and has a beef with the Iraqi Kurds, but I doubt they want to open that can of worms. Their own Kurds are already an expensive problem.

So the Iraqi state is pretty safe from foreign invasion for a while.

I observe and deal with the Iraqi army on a regular basis. They still have their dishka’s and pkm’s. And like most folks in the region of the world, they have absolutely no respect for human life. But a group of trained Boy Scouts would whoop that ass, any day of the week. With one or two exceptions, those being the Iraqi SF units that have been trained and supported by our SF units and the Baghdad SWAT guys. Other than that, they suck.

Yes and No.

You are forgeting that the traditional way for an unstable government to rally support is a foreign war. Use nationalism to rally the population.

7 Iranian heavy Divs to Iraq’s 1. Even if half of Iran’s Tanks are non-op, they still outnumber Iraq’s tanks by 3 or 4 to 1.

Even if half of Iran’s howitzers are non-op, they still outnumber Iraq’s over 10:1.

Even if half of Iran’s Air Force is grounded, they still have jets and they still have an air defense. Iraq doesn’t.

Then there is the infantry - Iran has 48 Divisions in the Army and IRGC of which 41 are infantry. Over 3:1.

My estimate that Iraq would be overrun by a conventional Iranian invasion in 2 weeks is based on Iranian deficiencies and terrain - not on Iraq being able to hold.

Other than the Baghdad/Diyala area and the KRG - the rest of Iraq is effectively undefended against a conventional attack. And all of Iraq is free-range for any jets that do fly...

DJ, you are correct.

Unleash the Peshmerga on pretty much anyone and I’ll take the Pesh all day long. I’ve had the pleasure of being around them. Very friendly, like the US, but will chop a head off in an instant and then serve you some chai in the next breath. They haven’t forgotten being chased into the mountains to die from chemical weapons and the cold winter’s they were forced to endure.

Respectfully disagree on your disagree -

Readiness is more than whether the tanks engines can be started in the garage. Its whether the organization and resources are there to put them in significant numbers, with fuel and ammunition, in working order, over the mountain ranges and rivers between their bases and their areas of operation in Iraq. Thats a degree of organization Iran hasn’t attempted since 1989, and at that time they were failing badly, with only a few dozen tanks in the field and air sorties in the ones and twos a day. Iran really hasn’t attempted to rearm significantly since then.

As for Irans divisions, thats the larger point. Iran sued for peace in 1989 because these divisions at the time were divisions only on paper, demoralized and deserting. The regime today seems even less legitimate to the Iranians, and from online accounts Iranian conscript training is perfunctory in the extreme. To man these paper divisions they will have only the most reluctant of conscripts.

The IRGC could possibly be considered reliable, but there are rather few of them and it would be risky to the Iranian regime to put a significant number of them in a foreign field when this may weaken the regime against internal threats.

Iraq can also count, against a stupidly overt Iranian conventional attack, on US air support within a matter of days, and the aid of Kuwait, the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia, at least in the air.

not so fast. Didn’t the clown in the WH make a statement when pulling the troops out, about Iraq’s destiny being left to Iraq. I don’t remember the actual statement. He used jets in Libya to try and protect the flow of oil to England and France. Payback for their help in Iraq and Afghanistan.

He has nothing to gain here in Iraq. The Iraqi’s are doing everything possible to get the US out of the country completely. They got rid of the military and now they are working on the State Dept. Only a matter of time before the embassy is turned over.

In 1989 Iran had a 1/3rd the armor/artillery it has now.
The 1988 Iraqi offensives did a number on them.

They have upgraded since then and continue to upgrade with Russian assistance.

E.G. The new “indiginious” built tank is the old M60 hulls with new suspension, Russian diesel engine, A T90’s turrent, gun, and fire-control plus reactive armor. Basically, it is a Russian upgrade Kit.

The number of Russian tanks in the Iranian Forces has also gone up.

By comparison Iraq has:
140 M1A1s - however the 120mm ammo bought so far is basic training levels.
~125 T72s
All the above is in Baghdad Province with 9th Div.
~76 T54/55 - however, I’ve never seen the main guns fired and the views of the barrels indicate they are not operational. These are in Basra and Ninawa.

Other than those tanks and RPGs [squad level weapons], none of the ISF have an anti-tank capability...

As to artillery, 9th Div in Baghdad, 5th Div in Diyala, and 3rd Div in Ninawa are the only IA Divisions with Howitzers - and they only got them in the last year - still training on using them. 120 M198s and 30 M109s total.

It does not matter how bad the Iranian Air is if it is unopposed - anything that flies is more than Iraq has.

Why do you think the US would interviene? We have no defense treaty with Iraq. Iraq has no defense treaties with any countries.

And where would we fly from? Need the permission of the GCC to fly from there and a war with Iran would leave the birdfarms outside the Gulf - inside the Gulf is a kill box from the Iranian coast.

You are assuming immeadiate reaction from the US/GCC. I do not see it with the current US administration and I do not see it from the GCC. Iraq is not a US tripwire since we left - the GCC is.

The lack of any Iraqi defense treaties is why the USF-I withdraw was effectively throwing Iraq to the wolves.

If USF-I was still there, then any attack on Iraq would result in automatic US response since they would also be attacking US forces.

As it stands, any attack would have a political delay while the US and GCC politicals debated “do we want a war with Iran”?

Iraq would fall before that political debate was over given the current gaps in force structure, training and equipment.

The US is under no obligation to defend Iraq. Iraq has no treaty allies...

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