Posted on 03/12/2012 11:41:55 AM PDT by parksstp
Regardless of how the final votes come out tomorrow, based on delegate allocation rules, little is going to change between now and tomorrow:
Let's start with MS. This is the easiest state to allocate based on the rules. Essentially, if no one gets over 50% and you clear the 15% hurdle, you're going to get delegates.
Let's assume for a moment the current polls are correct, with Gingrich 35%, Romney 30%, and Santorum 25%
Based on this, virutally all are certain to get a 1-1-1 delegate split in all 4 Congressional Deistricts. Of the remaining 25 delegates, Gingrich would get 10, Romney 8, and Santorum 7.
MS Delegate Allocation would be: Gingrich 14, Romney 13 (Romney has Henry Barbour Superdelegate), Santorum 11, and Uncommitted 2(Jeanne Luckey, Joe Nosef)
In Alabama, it's a little bit trickier. Unlike MS and OK, AL has a 2-1 split for first and second across each of the 7 Congressional districts. Third place in a CD gets shut out whether the cross the 20% threshhold or not. As for the 26 Delegates allocated proportionally for crossing the 20% threshhold, it's almost certain be a 9-9-8 distribution depending on the order of finish and rounding rules, assuming 34% Gingrich, 31% Romney, and 27% Santorum. If it's closer, the allocation will still be the same. If the margin is larger, it will change by maybe a delegate or so.
As for the 7 CD's, the best estimates I have based on current polling is that Gingrich would get 4 CD's and Romney 3. For Second place CD's finishes, I have 3 for Santorum, 2 for Gingrich, and 2 for Romney.
This would make the Alabama Delegate Distribution something like: Gingrich 19, Romney 17, Santorum 12 (has 1 Super), and Uncommitted 2 (Bill Armisted and Paul Reynolds).
And as for HI, Santorum sent surrogates to the island to actively take part in the caucuses. Romney is still the favorite here with liberal Republicans, and gets at least 40-45% of the vote. Santorum will get around 25%, Ron Paul 15-20%, and Gingrich the rest. In order to win all 3 delegates assigned to each of the 2 CDs, Romney would have to win 67% of the vote. As long as he is held under 67%, 2nd place will get a 2-1 split in each of the CD's. If Romney is held under 33% of the vote, then the top 3 finishers in each CD will get a delegate a piece.
Romney looks to be above the 33% mark, so it will likely be a 4-2 delegate split with Santorum in the CD's. Of the 11 statewide delegates, at 45%, Romney would get 5 delegates, at Santorum, 3, Ron Paul 2, and Gingrich 1.
So Hawaii's delegate allocation would be: Romney 9, Santorum 5, Paul 2, Gingrich 1, Uncommitted 3 (Hellreich, Chang, Liu)
So After March 13 the Pick-Ups would be as follows:
Romney: 39 (13 + 17 + 9) Gingrich: 34 (14 + 19 + 1) Santorum: 28 (11 + 12+ 5) Paul: 2 (From Hawaii)
Once again the Anti-Romney's split and make no ground on Romney. Santorum has shown he can win anywhere in the country, but as long as Gingrich voters in the south decide to throw their votes away, it won't matter.
If this were a 2 man race in AL/MS, Romney would get virtually no delegates there based on the Anti-Romney getting the majority. However, if the above plays out over AR, KY, WV, NC, LA, and TX, it's over.
If you don't like my calculations and conclusion, show me where the math is wrong.
ping.
Your math makes perfect sense but nobody’s thinking. This is all about emotions now. It’s gotten impossible to have a serious discussion on the primaries anymore.
My guess is that you are going to be adding 9 more delegates to Romney tomorrow for America Samoa as well...so he will likely get in the neighborhood of 48 delegates...14 more than Gingrich in your analysis, and 20 more than Santorum, thus increasing his lead.
Until Santoruma nd newyt combine and unite and quit splitting the vote, the nomination is almost assured for Romney. They can do the math as easy as anyone.
OTOH, if they unite, the can win the nomination too if they agree that the existing delegates go over. In most of the remaining states (outside of some NE states) a combined Rick/Newt vote will win proportionally more than Romney almost every time.
See my:
GOP Primary Tracker
http://www.jeffhead.com/GOPTracker.htm
Since Santorum is wanting a brokered convention and since Santorum is Currently in third in MS and AL. Should it not be Santorum that drops out of MS and AL so his voter can vote Newt.
That is exactly what you have advocated in the States where Santorum was leading with Mittens close on his heals.
VOTE NEWT
No, because Newt did not return the favor in MI, OH, AK, WA, and AZ. So why should Santorum bow out when he is in fact in a solid 2nd place in both the HARD and SOFT delegate count?
A vote for Newt is a vote for Romney. Just like Ron Paul has been a stooge for Romney at the debates, Newt is playing stalking horse and spoiler in the South.
Newt told his voters in MI and OH to Vote Santorum.
If Santorum voters in AL and MS vote Newt then Mittens gets no delegates because Newt should breach the 50%.
I thought no delegates for Mittens was the Goal.
BAILEE SAID: Newt told his voters in MI and OH to Vote Santorum.
Got a link for that?
It’s a little more tolerable to on FR today. The pro-Newt hysteria is not quite so rampant. Perhaps good sense is beginning to take hold. We can only hope.
“I thought no delegates for Mittens was the Goal.”
Santorum supporters’ goal is to get their guy in the WH, so he can use the levers of government and the bully pulpit for a moral crusade against evil. They’re not really concerned with big government. They just want to be in control of it.
Newt “STAYED” out of MI and OH. Those states were not on the Call list.
Who do you think Newt was leaving the field open for.
Not exactly:
From Salon.com
Below
____________________________________________________________
Wednesday, Mar 7, 2012
Newt’s billionaire is getting his money’s worth
Super Tuesday marked the triumph of Sheldon Adelson’s plan to help Mitt Romney by bankrolling Gingrich
By Steve Kornacki
In Michigan last week and in Ohio last night, Mitt Romney came within a few points of suffering defeats that the political world would have regarded as catastrophic. In both states, his margin of victory over Rick Santorum was smaller than the share of the vote won by a third candidate, Newt Gingrich. In Ohio, Gingrich’s effect was particularly pronounced: Romney won the state by one point, or about 12,500 votes, and the former speaker took 15 percent, or about 175,000 votes.
As narrow as they were, the Michigan and Ohio outcomes had serious psychological value for Romney. The Michigan vote was the culmination of what amounted to a weeks-long viability test him; losing by even one vote would have plunged his campaign into crisis, sent key Republican opinion-shapers into a panic, and raised the possibility of Santorum actually winning the nomination. In victory, Romney managed to calm the waters, but a surprise loss in Ohio last night would brought all the turmoil back. As it was, Super Tuesday was an unexpectedly shaky night for him, but it could have been far worse.
Is Gingrich the reason Romney averted disaster last night? It’s impossible to say for sure, but a strong case can be built.
In Ohio, Gingrich’s support was more spread out demographically and ideologically than Santorum’s, but he performed particularly well with certain groups that otherwise seemed to prefer Santorum. For instance, nearly a third of the GOP electorate identified as strong Tea Party backers. Santorum beat Romney by nine points (41 to 32 percent) among them, but Gingrich also won 20 percent of them. Santorum needed to run up as big a margin as possible with this group, since he lost to Romney among those who “somewhat” support the Tea Party, have no opinion on it, or are opposed to it, and Gingrich clearly got in his way.
Gingrich also stole a state, Georgia, that almost certainly would have gone for Santorum otherwise. The basic demographic profile of Georgia’s electorate, 39 percent “very conservative” and 64 percent evangelical, was a bad match for Romney, who is struggling (as he did in 2008) mightily in the South and areas that are culturally southern. But because Gingrich ran as a favorite son, the anti-Romney conservative vote — and a bundle of delegates — went to him in the Peach State.
Plus, while Santorum netted positive headlines from his wins in Tennessee and Oklahoma, Gingrich’s strength in both states (24 percent of the vote and 28 percent, respectively) denied Santorum more impressive-seeming margins and extra delegates.
This is probably the outcome that Sheldon Adelson had in mind when he cut his most recent $10 million check to the pro-Newt super PAC. The Las Vegas casino magnate, a longtime Gingrich benefactor who was drawn to Republican politics mainly because of Israel and Middle East issues, has made it clear that he known Gingrich’s campaign is doomed, that he doesn’t care for Santorum’s cultural conservatism, and that he’s eager to help Romney unseat Barack Obama in the fall.
His most recent super PAC donation came with the expectation that it wouldn’t be used to attack Romney. The calculation was transparent: A viable Gingrich make it much harder for Santorum to corner the market on the most conservative and religious voters in the Republican Party, allowing Romney to …. well, to have the kind of night he had last night.
Santorum’s campaign will apparently step up its efforts to convince Gingrich to leave the race now. Good luck with that. It’s true that Gingrich actually had a pretty awful night last night, but he doesn’t seem to recognize it. In a way, he’s been playing with house money since last fall, when he first surged in polls — something that was never supposed to happen after his epically humiliating spring and summer. Now he’s won two big southern states and controls more than 100 convention delegates. And Santorum is going to tell him to fold his tent — especially when two more southern states, Mississippi and Alabama, are on next week’s docket?
It’s probably too late for Santorum to win the primary season delegate race. NBC is estimating that Santorum would need to win more than 60 percent of the remaining delegates to reach the magic 1,144 mark — and nearly 70 percent if you assume Romney will win the remaining contests in New England and the Northeast. But there’s still enough conservative and evangelical resistance to Romney for Santorum to make some serious trouble.
He barely missed a chance for a breakthrough last night, just like he did in Michigan a week ago, and as long as Gingrich is around, this is the fate Santorum is doomed to keep living out. It’s almost like someone planned it this way.
Continue Reading.
Steve Kornacki writes about politics for Salon. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki
____________________________________________________________
Give me a break. Newt “STAYED” out of MI and OH because (1) He Had no money (2) He had to focus on winning his home state of GA (3) Delegate Allocation meant he had no chance to win delegates there.
But by NO means did Newt EVER tell his supporters to vote for Rick in ANY of those states.
It’s a pretty good analysis, except your not considering the large LDS population in Hawaii as part of the reason Mitt seems to be doing so well there.
And you also left of American Samoa, which has almost a 25 percent Mormon population, and will also vote tomorrow, awarding 9 additional delegates.
Newt barely campaigned in any of the states mentioned. Ohio, Michigan, Arizona or Washington. They also assume all of Newt’s votes would have gone to Rick.
Santorum blew a big lead in Ohio. He wasn’t even on the ballot in places, and didn’t have a full slate of delegates so beating Mitt by a few % points would have been irrelevant.
Santorum blew a big lead in Michigan by blowing the debate (and other missteps). In the end he didn’t get enough Democrat organized votes (see Joe DiSano or Tony Trupiano).
Santorum finished 3rd in Washington behind Romney and Ron Paul. Even if all Newt’s votes went to Rick he would have lost by around 3%.
Santorum would have lost Arizona by about 5% even if every Newt vote went to him.
Don’t waste your time pointing out facts to these people. They keep repeating the same baloney.
Newt didn’t campaign in MI, OH or WA so that pretty much blows you argument. I get real sick of the Santo people demanding that Newt drop out so their boy can win. They didn’t drop out of SC, FL or GA and they are not dropping out of AL or MS, so they can go suck an egg. My guess is that if Newt dropped out Little Ricky would not get as many votes as he thinks and would probably still lose to Romney.
No, no votes for Mitt is only the goal if Little Ricky gets them. If Newt is actively running and has a chance of sweep the table then it’s full speed ahead for the Santo people. They are the biggest bunch of whiners I have ever seen on this site. Just like their candidate.
you’re full of crap. If Newt was out of this, Santorum would easily win all the southern states, which would give him enough momentum to upset Romney in states he’s been compettive in (IL).
Give it up. There is NO WAY, NO WAY (read s-l-o-w-l-y) N-O-W-A-Y that Newt wins anything by staying in this race. The only thing it guarantees is a Romney nomination.
Oh, and if Newt supporters decide to jump on Romney’s bandwagon instead of Rick, I guess that tells us what kind of “conservatives” they really are. After all, I got told this about Rick supporters going to Romney.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.