Interesting list, Randita. I think you rank VA and FL a bit too highly, though. Here’s how I see it, from most to least likely:
NE - Fischer v Kerrey (GAIN)
AZ - Flake v Carmona (HOLD)
MT - Rehberg v Tester (GAIN)
NV - Heller v Berkley (HOLD)
IN - Mourdock v Donnelly (HOLD)
ND - Berg v Heitkamp (GAIN)
OH - Mandel v Brown (GAIN)
MO - Akin v McCaskill (GAIN)
WI - Thompson v Baldwin (GAIN)
MA - Brown v Warren (HOLD)
CT - McMahon v Murphy (GAIN)
VA - Allen v Kaine (GAIN)
FL - Mack v Nelson (GAIN)
PA - Smith v Casey (GAIN)
ME - Summers v King (HOLD)
MI - Hoekstra v Stabenow (GAIN)
HI - Lingle v Hirono (GAIN)
NM - Wilson v Heinrich (GAIN)
NJ - Kyrillos v Menendez (GAIN)
I wish we had a stronger candidate in ND. Berg didn’t impress me when I saw him in a debate in 2010, and now he’s letting what should be a pretty easy win turn into a drain on resources.
As dumb as the Akin comment was, he’s still competitive in the polls and McCaskill will be working against anti-Obama sentiment in the state. If she wins, I think it’ll be by a hair.
It’s disappointing to see Tammy Baldwin is actually competitive in WI. I thought Thompson would wrap it up easily.
McMahon is doing extremely well, again, and this time the Dems don’t have a candidate as (inexplicably) popular as Blumenthal. I’m putting Linda ahead of Allen and Mack because of polling, and her personal wealth. Like WI, neither VA or FL have panned out as easily as I thought they would. Especially in the case of Nelson, who should be destroyed at this point over his Obamacare vote alone.
I’m excited at the tightening of PA.
The ME situation is interesting. Oh to be a rich man with a PAC right about now, I’d be doing ads blasting King from the left on the coast, and from the right in the ME interior.
Gotta say polling has been disappointing in MI and NM, here’s to hoping that those turn around.
Thanks for the feedback and your list. Polls in the last week or two have shown the GOP in the lead in VA and FL. Prior to that, polls showed either or a tie or the Dem in the lead.
Since both FL and VA seem to be trending toward Romney, that helps the Senate races there, IMO.
I know the Franklin County, VA GOP Comm. director. He is hopeful of a Romney win in VA and says a major task for them in the next three weeks is to help Allen ride in on Romney’s coattails.
At this stage, I consider CT, MA, VA, and FL all about the same ranking. Hopefully we take all four!
I would move Akin way down in your ranking, all the way below Smith or maybe Summers.
It’s hard to rank these, it’s gotten really murky on the Senate side. I could move most of these up or down a couple spots.
Nebraska (Gain): In the bag
Arizona (Hold): “The hill” says it’s a tossup. A new poll has Carmona in front, it also has Obama leading in the state. Break me off a piece of that Kit Kat bar. Basically democrats think they’ll hold everything but NE and gain 5 GOP seats. Yeah ok, that seems plausible.
North Dakota (Gain): There will never be a Senator named Heidi. The hills are alive with the sound of BERG.
Nevada (Hold): Gotta watch it but I’m not very worried. Heller will run ahead of Romney who is 50/50 to win the state.
Indiana (Hold): New polls have Mourdock on the right side of surprisingly close race. Indiana along with Kentucky are the 2 state with the earliest polls closings so we’ll no right off if we’re screwed.
Montana (Gain): Too close for comfort, should be a W but any given Tuesday rules apply.
Wisconsin (Gain): Unfathomable but polls including Rassy continue to have Rosie O’Donnell narrowly ahead. Worried? Note to blue collar men, this lady would not have sex with you save the human race, you really gonna vote for her?
Virginia (Gain): Kaine has been up in some polls but this is a tie.
Massachusetts (Hold): The same polls that everything democrats leading everything grant no exception here. If MA was just a few points more Republican this would not be a race. And yet they continue to pretend Jokeahantus is a future President or something.
Connecticut (Gain): Close, mild surprise.
Pennsylvania (Gain): The big surprise of the cycle (aside from the Akin fart) it will be disappointing if we don’t cash in.
Ohio (Gain): The same polls showing the rat ahead also show Obama ahead by a too large margin. Still I’m not happy with this.
Florida (Gain): Romney will win the state, but by enough if Mack is running more than a couple points behind him? I wouldn’t bank on it.
Missouri (Gain): I’d bet on a heartbreakingly close defeat but don’t count Akin out, someone turn the guns on McCrapskull please, is Akin still cut off? That was a knee jerk mistake. I feel like we caused this be calling McCrapskull “Blanche”. Stupid state has just enough rats in STL and KC to keep us from developing the statewide chokehold we should.
Michigan (Gain): Doesn’t look great but Romney could win the State, Pete shouldn’t be far behind.
New Mexico (Gain): Haven’t been many positive developments in this one.
Maine (Hold): Unpredictable, a surprise hold is possible, so is an easy win for Angus Queen. The irony is he’s barley more liberal than Snowe and if we have the majority he could sit on the GOP side, spiting the democrats who helped him out by not running a real candidate.
Hawaii (Gain): A Lingle upset wouldn’t shock me. It also wouldn’t shock me if she loses by 15 as Osama rolls in the state (hopefully he’s under 70 this time).
New Jersey (Gain): This one doesn’t seemed to have developed. I’ve seen polling with the rat over 50% now.
The others including WV and WA and not competitive, unfortunately.