Posted on 10/11/2012 1:44:34 PM PDT by cotton1706
2012 may turn out to be the fourth wave election in a row. And based just on the open seats this election, 53 new senators will have been elected in only six years. That's 53 out of 100, or 53%.
This is a great trend. The policies will change or the people who make them will!
Sorry, those last eleven are the senators that will be replaced one way or the other this year.
Now, if you tell me that January 2013 will produce a workable Republican majority, that's a great trend.
| 10/11/12 Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
State |
Republican Candidate | Democrat/IND Candidate | Hold OR Gain |
| NE* | Debra Fischer | Bob Kerrey | GAIN |
| AZ* | Jeff Flake | Richard Carmona | HOLD |
| IN* | Richard Mourdock | Joe Donnelly | HOLD |
| WI* | Tommy Thompson | Tammy Baldwin | GAIN |
| NV | Dean Heller+ | Shelley Berkley | HOLD |
| ND* | Rick Berg | Heidi Heitcamp | GAIN |
| MT | Denny Rehberg | Jon Tester* | GAIN |
| MA | Scott Brown+ | Elizabeth Warren | HOLD |
| VA* | George Allen | Tim Kaine | GAIN |
| OH | Josh Mandel | Sherrod Brown+ | GAIN |
| FL | Connie Mack | Bill Nelson+ | GAIN |
| MO | Todd Akin | Claire McCaskill+ | GAIN |
| MI | Pete Hoekstra | Debbie Stabenow+ | GAIN |
| CT* | Linda McMahon | Chris Murphy | GAIN |
| PA | Tom Smith | Bob Casey+ | GAIN |
| NM* | Heather Wilson | Martin Heinrich | GAIN |
| NJ | Joe Kyrillos | Bob Menendez+ | GAIN |
| HI* | Linda Lingle | Mazie Hirono | GAIN |
| ME* | Charles Summers | Angus King (Ind.) | HOLD |
| WV | John Raese | Joe Manchin+ | GAIN |
| WA | Michael Baumgartner | Maria Cantwell+ | GAIN |
| *Open Seat +Incumbent | |||
It is a good trend. We can’t allow any more Ted Kennedys or Robert Byrds staying in there for half a century building up little fiefdoms.
I’m sorry to see Todd Akin so far down the list, but I guess MO people don’t want the rest of the country laughing at them if they elect Akin.
Bob Kerrey will be remembered for coining the expression, “Bill Clinton is an unusually good liar.” I wonder why the Cornhuskers have turned against Kerrey. At one time he was idolized there.
My point is that fresh blood in the congress is always a good thing. It’s very healthy. Big picture, the people are not being beholden to their incumbents, and the incumbents will be nervous in their seats. Do a crappy job, you’re out in six or twelve years.
This is why people like Olympia Snowe are retiring, because the old ways are doing things are being forgotten with all the new blood and the senate has become a combative body once again, not the comfortable coffee clatch that they loved so much!
We lost the war decades ago and yet we still win a battle every now and again after the fact, which reinforces an irrational desire to think that we (strict-constructionists) still have a chance of a resurrection at the voting booth. We’re being played with and strung along again...I’ll be damned if I’m not actually planning to vote for Romney...my already diminished self esteem is now totally exposed as a fraud. So now Romney wins big...and, of course, the inevitable collapse occurs, it will then be portrayed as being at the feet of the tea party. Like I said, we lost the war decades ago.
Akin was in the top three until his foible.
This is just my list, with some input from some other Freepers. Not scientific or based on current polls.
Missouri “elected” a dead Democrat to the Senate 12 years ago, and that’s a laughable stupid hard to top. Electing an excellent Conservative like Akin over the flatulent-brained McCaskill is pretty smart.
Because Nebraskans wised up they were being used by him. As soon as his term was up in ‘01, he had no more need for them and went off to NYC to run a Communist-training college. They ain’t gonna be fooled again.
Void the bowels of Washington this November!
Yeah - they wouldnt want to be seen as a 'laughingstock' by the rest of the country.
Better to re-elect ultra-libera-democrap-ass-kissing-Obamacare-voting McCaskill, then to be thought os as a 'laughingstock'
Unless we retire rusty clowns with a R behind
their name like McCain, Linseed Graham and
McConnell the B.S. will continue.
Interesting list, Randita. I think you rank VA and FL a bit too highly, though. Here’s how I see it, from most to least likely:
NE - Fischer v Kerrey (GAIN)
AZ - Flake v Carmona (HOLD)
MT - Rehberg v Tester (GAIN)
NV - Heller v Berkley (HOLD)
IN - Mourdock v Donnelly (HOLD)
ND - Berg v Heitkamp (GAIN)
OH - Mandel v Brown (GAIN)
MO - Akin v McCaskill (GAIN)
WI - Thompson v Baldwin (GAIN)
MA - Brown v Warren (HOLD)
CT - McMahon v Murphy (GAIN)
VA - Allen v Kaine (GAIN)
FL - Mack v Nelson (GAIN)
PA - Smith v Casey (GAIN)
ME - Summers v King (HOLD)
MI - Hoekstra v Stabenow (GAIN)
HI - Lingle v Hirono (GAIN)
NM - Wilson v Heinrich (GAIN)
NJ - Kyrillos v Menendez (GAIN)
I wish we had a stronger candidate in ND. Berg didn’t impress me when I saw him in a debate in 2010, and now he’s letting what should be a pretty easy win turn into a drain on resources.
As dumb as the Akin comment was, he’s still competitive in the polls and McCaskill will be working against anti-Obama sentiment in the state. If she wins, I think it’ll be by a hair.
It’s disappointing to see Tammy Baldwin is actually competitive in WI. I thought Thompson would wrap it up easily.
McMahon is doing extremely well, again, and this time the Dems don’t have a candidate as (inexplicably) popular as Blumenthal. I’m putting Linda ahead of Allen and Mack because of polling, and her personal wealth. Like WI, neither VA or FL have panned out as easily as I thought they would. Especially in the case of Nelson, who should be destroyed at this point over his Obamacare vote alone.
I’m excited at the tightening of PA.
The ME situation is interesting. Oh to be a rich man with a PAC right about now, I’d be doing ads blasting King from the left on the coast, and from the right in the ME interior.
Gotta say polling has been disappointing in MI and NM, here’s to hoping that those turn around.
Thanks for the feedback and your list. Polls in the last week or two have shown the GOP in the lead in VA and FL. Prior to that, polls showed either or a tie or the Dem in the lead.
Since both FL and VA seem to be trending toward Romney, that helps the Senate races there, IMO.
I know the Franklin County, VA GOP Comm. director. He is hopeful of a Romney win in VA and says a major task for them in the next three weeks is to help Allen ride in on Romney’s coattails.
At this stage, I consider CT, MA, VA, and FL all about the same ranking. Hopefully we take all four!
I would move Akin way down in your ranking, all the way below Smith or maybe Summers.
Thanks cotton1706.
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