The Significance of Bill Daley's Withdrawal from the Illinois Gubernatorial Race

Ricochet ^ | 9-23-2013 | Paul Rahe

[ClaytonP]

A week ago, William Daley -- son of one mayor of Chicago, brother of another, chairman of Bill Clinton's presidential campaign, former secretary of commerce, and onetime chief of staff for Barack Obama -- pulled out of the Illinois gubernatorial race.

There has been a fair amount of comment from those inclined to handicap that race -- with most observers following the ChicagoSun-Times in supposing Pat Quinn, the current governor, a very lucky man.

Jason Riley , who writes for The Wall Street Journal, suspects that there is more to the story than meets the eye:

My sources say that Mr. Daley's internal polling likely showed the governor to be a stronger primary candidate than Mr. Daley initially imagined. Partly this has to do with the perception of Mr. Quinn as a populist who operates outside of the Democratic establishment, which will help him with the party faithful in a primary contest notwithstanding his low overall job-approval ratings. Another theory is that businessman Bruce Rauner, a Republican candidate for governor, has proven to be more competitive than expected and was undercutting Mr. Daley's support among centrists.

I think otherwise. Here is what Daley said at the press conference at which he announced his withdrawal:

I had great confidence…that this race was a very doable race for me. [But, after looking at] the enormity of the challenges of fixing [the state's] problems, I concluded that I cannot commit to what the voters might need.

Keep this in mind. Bill Daley spent some of his years in the financial industry at J. P. Morgan Chase. Unlike most Illinois pols, he can add, subtract, divide, and multiply, and he knows a thing or two about compound interest.

Then consider this. Of all the states in the union, Illinois is in the worst shape with regard to its unfunded pension obligations. For some time now, the rating on the Illinois state debt has been the lowest in the nation, and this summer, the rating agencies lowered that rating further. Daley's withdrawal is a straw in the wind, and we should take him at his word. He doubted that he has the capacity to deal with the crisis underway.

It is also striking that Daley refused to endorse Quinn, the only Democrat still in the race. "I made my opinion of Pat Quinn pretty clear over the past few months," he said, and he suggested that the Republicans might very well oust Quinn from his current post.

My view is that Daley does not want to be stuck with cleaning up the mess that the machine so well served by his father and brother created in Illinois. He knows the power of the public-sector unions. He is aware of their propensity for thuggery, and he does not want to be left holding the bag.

His withdrawal is a straw in the wind. It is a sign that things are going to get very, very ugly. Were I a legal resident of Illinois, I would vote in November, 2014 for Quinn and the Democrats. The people of Illinois should make the folks who got them into this mess face the music.

[InMemoriam]

Translation: The villains are jumping out of the school bus with the kids inside right before it goes over the cliff.

[Thebaddog]

Respectfully disagree. All this had to be known going in. I think Daley got out before his business dealings got scrutinized in public. And he’s never been a retail politician. It’s not pretty here and the unions would have been hard on him to protect their boy.

[fortheDeclaration]

He doesn’t want to end up in prison.