Posted on 05/06/2014 11:39:10 AM PDT by ken5050
Everyone's focused today on the GOP senatorial primary for the open seat in North Carolina. There are two other primaries today that conservatives aren't expected to win, but it may turn out that the vote still sends a really big message.
This race is therefore a referendum on Boehner; what the base thinks. And if he doesn't run away with it, if he gets around 60%, then this might encourage a challenge for Speaker in the next House.
Rene Ellmers is in a single issue primary: Immigration. Her recent comments, which many took to favor amnesty, have given her an unknown challenger who has made this race about only the one issue.
She might lose this, if the base is riled up enough, but even if she manages to just get by, it's going to send a message to other Republicans: DO NOT GO THERE!!
Also in NC, will the moderate Republican ranks be thinned. long serving Walter Jones is in a tight race against DC insider Taylor Griffin. Jones is vulnerable, but unfortunately, no real Tea Party challenger emerged. Griffin is a long time GOP staffer and aide to McCain. Jones, after 20 years in the House, is trying to depict Griffin as a "DC insider."
Meh! I think Jones loses..people have long wanted to exact some revenge for Jones' opposition to the Iraq war.
And last, and definitely least, will Clay Aiken finish second again. Whoever wins the Dem primary will likely face Ellmers..which just makes it all the more interesting..
So, how do you think Boehner and Ellmers will do?
WHOA WHOA….Griffin a McCain guy? I don’t think so. He worked for GWB, and he worked for Sarah Palin, and he has Palin’s endorsement. I think he does beat Jones - who is the dumbest Republican in the House - and I think Griffin will be a good rep. Yes, he does have some K street history, but he has some good history too.
Jone’s sell by date is long past.
How do you see Tillis v Brannon v Harris?
Why do you think Roche loses to Ellmers? (not doubting it, just wondering).
I want Jones gone...but Griffin's not a solid conservative..he's still a better choice...
There is no requirement for a runoff vote in Ohio, so Boehner’s total, if it’s more than either of the other 2 candidates, will win for him.
Concerning SunTan Johnny’s race, J.D. Winteregg sent out an email yesterday that stated that the Daily Caller was reporting that Boehner was polling below 50%. I didn’t go to the website to see what poll it was and whether it was credible. Even if accurate, Boehner should still win since I believe there are a number running against him. Still, the returns will be very interesting if it shows the House Speaker could not get much more than 50%. Perhaps that would put some spine in some of the Republican caucus to put Boehner on the back row when they choose new leaders in January.
Regarding Amnesty Ellmers—I haven’t seen a poll but suspect Frank Roche (to whom I’ve sent contributions) doesn’t have much of a chance of pulling off an upset. Ellmers has supposedly raised a lot of money while Roche has struggled with fundraising. Still, if Roche did win it would be a huge slap in the face of the Amnesty lobby, since he backs NumbersUSA’s position on reducing the numbers of immigrants, and Ellmers supports continued mass immigration to keep the Chamber of Commerce happy.
I’ll do a spring dance if either Winteregg/Gurr beats SunTan Johnny or Roche beats Amnesty Ellmers.
I know tat, but if Boehner’s held to 60% or less..that sends a message..
“Sends a message”...Not to Boehner. He could give a rip.
LOL. She is a full-throated supporter of amnesty. It is not a matter of interpretation.
I voted Eric Gurr, TEA Party for the 8th Congressional District. There are plenty of "Fire Boehner" signs all over the place.
Hey Thanks!
I think when that Tea Party Leadership Fund came in from Washington it turned the race into a bit of a circus. It was at least a clean primary as I was as different on many of the issues from Winteregg as I was from Boehner. That makes it tougher but no one can say they didn’t have a choice in the Republican primary.
Griffin is pro-amnesty.
Walter Jones will go straight back to work after his victory and help to block the NDAA amnesty amendment.
Mo Brooks, Walter Jones, Fleming and all of Steve King’s men will make moves to block amnesty.
Im more scared of articulate Gowdy pushing amnesty than Ellmers. At least we could get rid of Ellmers with Clay Aiken. Gowdy is safe.
Is there someone who could run third party in November to spoil Boehner?
Ive thinking about people we could try to remove in November like Michael Grimm.
Republicans are going to end up with 230 plus members in the house. The question is which swing districts can we knock out amnesty supporters.
what makes you think Griffin is pro amnesty?
You were saying?
so you’re being a smart ass because I was wrong on a prediction? What’s your problem. (BTW, Jones got only 51% of the vote and had a “remarkable” 69-29 margin in one county - where his people control the polls…….he lost everywhere else.
Yes, Jones is more hardcore on this issue than Griffin, but Griffin is not for any kind of citizenship or voting rights, and is in favor of disallowing any government handouts for illegals.
May not be enough for you, and that’ fine - I respect that - but to say he’s pro amnesty is not accurate either.
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