Of the 1.4 million who contract it along with a 90% fatality rate, 1.26 million will die.
The rate will be more like 60%...I think...which is the norm..
The 90% rate was a one off...but they use it as the “as high as_____” rate for media purposes..
As to the numbers.....they are too high, too fast...IMO
They are calculating it like a nuclear fission reaction. It does not work that way.
Another thing...
When someone gives you a forecast with as big a deviation between the high and low as this one is...they are sheeting in the wind...and really have no idea..
“The Ebola outbreak could skyrocket to between 550,000 cases and 1.4 million cases by 2015”
I would make three observations. African healthcare is marginally effective. I’ve watched the video clips of what they do and offer. Limited IV usage...limited food....limited care....limited drugs. If you kept a guy hydrated, with some liquid food, and pumped up on drugs for a week....I think you could get the survival rate up to around forty-to-fifty percent.
Second, unless something changes...I agree with the 1.4 million cases by January. But why stop with January 2015? We could imagine by January of 2020 that sixty million residents of central Africa will pass away. The marginal infrastructure that exists today? It’ll spiral out of control.
Third, mass hysteria is just a step away. Toss in CNN, Fox News and MSNBC doing live intereviews outside of some hospital in Dallas, and people will start to freak out. They can’t handle panic and stress like this.