Posted on 12/16/2014 5:02:11 AM PST by HomerBohn
More than two decades after the Berlin Wall fell, it appears that the United States and Russia are engaging in the same sort of proxy wars that were so common during the Cold War. Everywhere that Western and Russian spheres of influence meet there is the potential for conflict, and the two aging superpowers have shown their willingness fight through their neighbors. However, this game of chess has taken on a whole new dimension that is radically different than what we saw during the Cold War.
The whole point of a proxy war is to resist your enemy without actually engaging with him. Once the nuclear arms race began, it became clear that the massive ground battles of World War Two were a thing of the past. If a war starts between Russia and the US, it’s only a matter of time before the conflict escalates into nuclear annihilation. Like the computer says in Wargames, “A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.” That makes America’s current actions in Ukraine all the more puzzling.
The Ukraine Freedom Support Act (UFSA) of 2014 authorizes lethal and non-lethal aid. Besides what’s already being supplied.
Including communications equipment. Body armor. Night vision goggles. Humvees. Radar. Counter-mortar detection units. Binoculars. Small boats. Various other gear.
Sniper and assault rifles. Hand grenade launchers. Mortars and shells. Stingers. Anti-tank missiles. What’s known may be the tip of the iceberg.
UFSA legislation “authoriz(ing) (Obama) to provide defense articles, defense services, and training to the Government of Ukraine for the purpose of countering offensive weapons and reestablishing the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine…”
Gone are the days of quietly supplying the Mujahideen with stinger missiles in Afghanistan. I’m sure Russia knew we were helping their enemies in the 80′s, but our government didn’t really make this fact public, and that’s a crucial strategy with proxy wars.
Remember, the goal is to not fight your enemy directly. But on the global stage, making a public statement to harm your enemy, forces your enemy to take action in a public way. They can’t be seen as weak, so they must swiftly return fire for all the world to see. As you can imagine this has the potential escalate quickly, especially between two nuclear armed superpowers. What starts as a proxy war can quickly turn into a real war with millions of casualties. In the words of Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov “Russia will not be able to leave this without a response.”
But the United States hasn’t just made a public attempt to supply Russia’s enemies. They’ve also directly threatened them in subtle ways.
The Pentagon has threatened Russia with redeploying nuclear cruise missiles to Europe, accusing Moscow of violating two arms control treaties.
“We don’t have ground-launched cruise missiles in Europe now obviously because they’re prohibited by the treaty,” said Brian McKeon, principal deputy undersecretary for policy at the Department of Defense.
“But that would obviously be one option to explore,” he added.
It appears that the United States is playing hardball with Russia, when they’re really in no position to do so. Russia’s nuclear arsenal has recently surpassed America’s, and their ability to deploy these weapons has America’s top brass rather worried. Russia is currently deploying bombers, submarines, and ICBM’s that could be just as advanced and stealthy as our own, if not more so.
It should come as no surprise that Russia’s military may be able to surpass our own in the near future, because they’ve kept their priorities straight. While the United States has spent the past 15 years training and equipping its military to suppress low budget insurgencies all over the world, Russia has never stopped preparing its military to fight our own on a conventional battlefield. While we were busy fighting the War on Terror, they caught up to us.
And now the United States thinks it can bully Russia and arm their neighbors. It’s like they think it’s still 1991, when Russia was in free fall mode. Russia isn’t some second rate backwater we can push around. They’re an advanced nuclear armed superpower that delivers nearly half of Europe’s fuel supply, while all we can deliver is a broken military and an economy that is rapidly circling the drain.
They have all the cards, and yet our government continues to poke the Russian Bear with a stick. It should be perfectly clear by now that our government is hell bent on starting World War Three. There will be no more pussyfooting around like the Cold War. Except this time, I don’t think anyone believes that the US will come out on top. Not only are we desperately trying to start a war, we’re practically begging to lose.
Yes, we don’t need to be shrinking from our national security commitments. We need to be strengthening them, keeping our force strong and encouraging our partners in NATO and SEATO to build/rebuild their military forces to counteract these mutual threats.
“Russia’s nuclear arsenal has recently surpassed America’s, and their ability to deploy these weapons has America’s top brass rather worried. Russia is currently deploying bombers, submarines, and ICBM’s that could be just as advanced and stealthy as our own, if not more so.”
I thought both sides were numerically equal, tied to the latest treaty? Russia’s weapons are newer though.
Where did you find this Blame America First website?
Shootin’ blanks.
Russia a ‘superpower’?
Please. They’re being pummelled by the Saudi’s.
Russia has been threatening NATO partner states for quite a few years now. In Ukraine, Russia has committed ground troops.
The underlying point concerning proxy wars might be legitimate, but the idea that the U.S. is the provocateur is off the mark.
How would supplying weapons to Ukraine be a direct, overt attack on Russian troops, if as Putin states there are no Russian troops in Ukraine?
There are legitimate concerns about supplying weapons to Ukraine to discuss, but that it makes the U.S. the provocateur isn't one of them. Russia is in no condition to fight a land war in Europe. No we could not win such a war quickly or without significant losses in life and treasure, but Russia would be doomed to lose from the beginning. They would likely end it by kicking off a tactical nuke exchange to broker a peace agreement, but there is no way that Russian troops would push through Poland.
Another mystery. Where did the kids come from?
so are we.
Right next to the 'Don't Blame Hillary' site.
America is bankrupt. Our government is morally bankrupt and headed up by an unknown psycho.
Oh look. European Union apologists pointing everywhere but themselves to try to find blame for the mess they are primarily responsible for.
No. The author correctly rates the Euroweinies wimpiness.
If the US won’t save them even current Russia will kick their asses.
Obama rides a red horse.
Not to worry.
We have Dorkbama, the West Wing Clown Show of Felon/Cretins, and our bottom of the IQ barrel marshmallow major State Department, led by Lurch (D student) who just happened to serve in ‘Nam.
Nothing can go wrong.
Nothing can go wrong.
Go wrong, go wrong......
There are other factual errors: a) we all knew we were supporting the Afghans with Stingers in the '80s; b) Russian pilots ('volunteers') fought directly against American pilots in both Korea and Vietnam-- there was no escalation to nuclear war.
The Bear isn't ten feet tall, although its ability to con many in the West that it is seems to be a perennial feature of world politics, reaching back to France's gross overestimation of the Russian army's abilities before WWI, even though the Russians had just been shellacked by Japan in 1905.
“The Russian economy is facing hard times but no one expects Russia to back down even if Putin is gone tomorrow.”
I agree 100 percent with that. That the Russian military is ready for a prolonged military adventure, or that nuclear war is something they’d countenance as an alternative to economic collapse, of that I’m less sure.
What may be more true is that Putin has hard intel that if they did issue a nuclear strike order, especially a limited nuclear strike order, Obola would back down and not counter it, conventionally, financially, or nuclear.
For example, if Russia nuked Riyad and allowed the Iranians to occupy Saudi Arabia, I don’t think we’d do anything. I’m not sure the Europeans would either.
What’s worse, I don’t think anybody is doing any scenario planning that would allow the National Command Authority or the EU’s NCA to quickly respond to something like that.
The news is saying that fracking is what’s causing the drop in oil. That is false - completely false, actually.
All fracking does is POTENTIALLY allow the US to move into the position of being a pure energy exporter. This would allow the US to POTENTIALLY become a market maker in energy.
The ONLY market maker in energy is Saudi Arabia. They have $800B in cash reserves. They make the market in oil - full stop. If they choose to continue to pump, the price will continue to fall.
KSA is doing this because of the political and military alliance that exists between Russia/Iran/Syria and potentially Turkey now. On the other side is KSA/Jordan/Egypt and Israel (if you can believe it).
War has formally begun between these alliances. The world has sanctioned Russia for the Ukraine and the KSA is artificially depressing the price of oil. Add to this the flight of capital from Russia and you have an honest to goodness political and military conflict. Israel destroyed a stockpile of brand new RUSSIAN missiles in Syria last week.
Nobody has declared war, but its on. The ONLY question now is figuring out at which point Russia decides it has no other option than ESCALATION against the KSA.
If the KSA stops pumping, Russia’s problems are solved. Russia CAN and WILL find buyers for its oil, as will Iran, if the KSA stops pumping.
I think the only question for Putin is whether you hop over Israel to come down from the north into the KSA to take their great spoil (cash, oil, access to shipping routes), or they decide they have to take out Israel first.
Israel is a one nuke country. They can nuke Tel Aviv and preserve Jerusalem (attacking Jerusalem would cause a holy civil war in Russia and their axis wouldn’t stand for it).
They won’t nuke Israel, because they don’t want a counterattack from one of Israel’s sea based nuclear deterrents.
The KSA? No worries there.
Putin has to be seriously considering bombing the KSA.
All he has to do is gain military control over it and then tell the world, “Look, do you want the oil or don’t you? We had a problem, we believed that even though the problem was economic, it was being inflicted on us, we perceived it as existential, and we solved it. We have no further military ambitions at this time, and we’ve got enough money to wait you out now. Are you buying?”
This is the only way you can explain the probing the Russians have done of late. If they have to go, what can they reasonably expect? Russian play chess. Obama plays Candy Crush.
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