Posted on 12/16/2014 8:35:13 AM PST by LeoMcNeil
Shocking political news this morning! Jeb Bush has announced he is going to “actively explore” running for President. This, no doubt, comes as a huge shock and surprise to everyone. It was only a few days ago that the New York Times got wind of Bush’s super secret meeting with John McCain wherein they discussed how to make irrelevant the conservative base of the Republican Party. Funny how in politics super secret meetings somehow get discovered and splashed all over the New York Times. It’s as if someone planted the story.
After McCain and Mitt Romney, party moderates, got trounced by Obama the Bush’s make their return to offer us the son more like Bush 41. Bush has to know the Republican base wants nothing to do with another moderate, which is why he’s asking McCain of all people how to marginalize conservatives. Bush might as well ask Mitt Romney as well. Both McCain and Romney marginalized conservatives in the GOP primaries by being the only viable moderate candidate running. With 39% of the primary vote, Romney won the nomination. He and McCain can tell Bush how to marginalize the base, what they cannot do is tell him how to win the base back so he can win the White House. If the purpose of running for President is winning the big prize in November, it doesn’t pay to marginalize and outrage your own party’s base.
Nevertheless, that appears to be Jeb Bush’s goal. He’s announcing his candidacy early in order to raise money and convince Mitt Romney and Chris Christie not to run. If he can convince them not to run, all he needs is 39% support and a boatload of money to win the nomination. His problem will come in the general election though. His immediate problem is that the conservative base has already shown that it won’t show up to support a moderate. Around four million conservative Republicans didn’t show up on election day in 2012, costing Mitt Romney the election. I was one of those voters, I did not vote in the Presidential race. (I voted in all races down ticket) Those people aren’t going to show up for Jeb Bush.
Jeb Bush has a bigger problem though, his name. The United States has never had political dynasties. We have had only two sets of father and son elected President. (Adams and Bush) We have a handful of political families that for a generation or two manage to get themselves elected to high office in one state. The Kennedy’s were for one generation a major political family, with Ted’s death though not one remains in the Senate. Generally, the public doesn’t like political dynasties which is why they’re generally rejected. For Jeb Bush this isn’t good for him at all. His dad and brother were President, the latter is still reviled in many circles. Jeb Bush isn’t going to enter a general election with a clean slate as a newly crowned Republican nominee. Instead, he will enter a general election wherein his last name alone will polarize independent voters. By the end of George W’s term, he had lost the trust of the country. Jeb Bush will carry on that torch for better or more likely worse.
For conservatives, Jeb Bush is a complete nightmare. He has the ability to win the nomination if he can fence out Romney and Christie. A lone moderate can pull 39% and with conservatives planning to eat their own with a massive field of conservative choices our votes will be diluted and we’ll be stuck with Bush III. Not only would Jeb Bush be Bush III, he’s arguably the most liberal of the bunch. Ultimately we must make the argument that he’s too liberal and that he cannot win because of his name. The too liberal will fall on deaf ears when it comes to the 39% but after two disastrous elections even the rank and file liberals in the party want to win. Jeb Bush cannot win in November because moderates won’t like his name and conservatives won’t vote for him.
Perhaps. It also seems like Dem pandering to them might be driving more Whites and even some Blacks to vote Republican.
Iirc Romney actually got something like 18% of the young Black male vote. This was offset by Black females voting for Obama at a hair under 100%.
Obamas not going to be on the ballot in 2016, so Black turnout should return to pre-2008 levels. After this year we may see a scramble by the Dems to recapture some White votes, which could cause issues with other portions of their base.
So lots of variables at work.
He’s a church going, life supporting, defense minded, fiscally informed, supporter of big government, amnesty, and open borders.
He will be easy to sell to most social conservatives.
We better meet somewhere and do just that. If we have a replay of 2012 we will get Bush as nominee for sure.
I do not like third party conservative parties that drive away votes from the GOP ad elect Democrats .But,in this case a threat of such would be very good politics. Whether we actually do is another think but we should be able to stop this nomination if enough people make the pledge to support a third party.
Which is exactly why the media is pushing him. He can't win if nominated, because there is literally nothing like the "Bush" name that will invigorate and motivate the Democrat base. Face it, the Repub's won the mid-terms because they turned out and Dems didn't. The left HATES the Bushes - all of them. The media HATES the Bushes - all of them. They will beat that drum, and beat that drum, and it will motivate and get out the vote.
The other part of the equation will be the media's blind promotion of Hillary. This whole Elizabeth Warren nonsense is just that. She's only there now as a stalking horse, to draw the attention and fire of the right and the "moderate". The ideal is to make Hillary a moderate centrist by comparison - not that Warren has any realistic chance of obtaining the nomination or winning. To pull this off, the Clinton operatives are working to create "bookends" to the left and right of Hillary, so she's the just-right Goldilocks candidate.
I’m a convert. I will no longer vote for moderate republicans. If the candidate is not conservative (truly) I will now vote for the democrat.
I resisted in the past and even admonished some for taking this attitude. I am now on board. And I sent Senator Coats a letter stating the same. His office has called me twice to better understand my concerns. I splained it to them.
We either need to turn things around soon or run it aground ASAP. Half the “conservatives” we have elected have turned on us, even the ones we were excited about. I am changing my party affiliation too. Independent doesn’t sound so bad.
So was Reagan.
If another “moderate” (or more) enters, then there is a chance that this would weaken them...so long as their is a consensus on the right...a single candidate, or between two candidates that could end up being on the same ticket (i.e. not rip each other to shreds in the primaries).
“It would be nice if the primary got down to one conservative vs. one “moderate” as early as possible, while there’s still enough delegates remaining for the conservative to triumph.”
Agree.
Cruz could also be the other side of the ticket.
It’s like a horror movie.
“Perhaps. It also seems like Dem pandering to them might be driving more Whites and even some Blacks to vote Republican.”
I wonder how many times THAT particular fantasy has to be shot down before ‘republicans’ wise up!
Jeb, Mitty, and NJFatboy.
All will have plenty of dough to campaign, but you’re right may offset each other.
He can announce it until he's blue in the face, but he'll be lying through his teeth.
Floor fight: Grass-roots activists battle attempt to rig RNC delegate rules
More lesser evil, eh? So how's that working out so far?
Jeb Bush was meeting with John McCain to get tips on how to run a winning Presidential campaign.
If jeb Bush is the nominee, I’ll be voting for his opponent.
Nevertheless, that appears to be Jeb Bush’s goal. He’s announcing his candidacy early in order to raise money and convince Mitt Romney and Chris Christie not to run. If he can convince them not to run, all he needs is 39% support and a boatload of money to win the nomination.
Other sources have Romney winning 52% of the primary vote. It's not always easy to specify just who is a Republican and who is part of the Republican base. You may be assuming that the Republican base is comprised of people who didn't vote for Romney in the primaries and that everybody who voted against Romney was for "anybody but Romney." One can be skeptical about both of those assumptions.
Around four million conservative Republicans didn’t show up on election day in 2012, costing Mitt Romney the election.
So said the early reports, but I think that number was revised downward. What hurt Romney more in the states where the election was decided was the rich guy factor and his attitude toward the auto bailout, more than general ideological hostility towards him.
Bush will have trouble if he runs because people don't respond well to the Bush name nowadays, because he's not a very inspiring candidate and has little charisma, because he's yesterday's news, and because there isn't enough daylight between him and Hillary for voters to really care.
But the way to deny him the nomination isn't to back a lot of little candidates each claiming to be the most conservative. It's to find somebody who has a broad appeal that goes beyond the narrowest possible definition of the party base. The problem with that is that any such candidate would be accused of not being conservative enough. It's a vicious circle.
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