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YouGov poll: Trump still leads GOP field — but Rubio’s now in second
Hotair ^ | 10/02/2015 | AllahPundit

Posted on 10/02/2015 6:44:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Apart from one stray Rasmussen poll in early August that had Rubio tied with Jeb Bush at 10 percent, this is the first poll since the start of Trumpmania in June that’s placed him as high as second. And that Rasmussen one seems to have been an outlier in hindsight: It also had Trump at 17 percent, the only poll taken in the last two months in which he hasn’t cracked 20 percent.

Shake up:

yg1

Rubio’s the only candidate among the top six to have gained more than two points since the debate on September 16th. (Surprisingly, Carly Fiorina’s only improved modestly despite her own universally praised debate performance.) How’s he doing it? Probably through inheriting Scott Walker’s voters, by and large, and possibly picking up some of Trump’s lost support. That’s the only way I can explain how Rubio would be the sole major gainer while Trump is the sole major loser, even though it’s not at all intuitive that people who like the plain-spoken hardline border hawk would migrate over to the polished pro-amnesty candidate. Maybe some of Trump’s early support was soft, consisting mainly of people who preferred him due to simple name recognition and have come to like Rubio after watching him at the debates.

More important to Rubio than being in second here, arguably, is that he’s more than doubled Jeb Bush’s support. Bush’s numbers are almost perfectly static since the last poll taken two weeks ago, and this marks the fourth major poll in a row in which he’s trailed Rubio — although never by this much until now. That’s why Jeb feels he can’t wait any longer to start hitting him. Well, that and the fact that Rubio, almost alone among Republican candidates so far, hasn’t suffered much from Trump attacking him. As Trump likes to say, Bush, Rick Perry, and Rand Paul all seemed to dim in the polls after they started swinging at Trump (or rather, after Trump started swinging at them). Trump’s been calling Rubio a “clown” for two weeks now. How’s that working out?

As for Trump’s own polling, in the last seven major national polls taken, he’s reached 26 percent just once. Here’s what his poll average looks like in September. Remember, the debate happened on the 16th.

rcp

If you’re wondering why RINOs like me have been wondering lately whether he’s hit his ceiling, that’s why. Because … he really might have hit his ceiling, despite the fact that he still leads. If the RCP numbers don’t convince you, have a look at the trend in his favorable rating that YouGov found today. The blue line is “favorable,” the green “unfavorable”:

fav

That’s a 12-point drop in his favorables among Republicans and a 13-point rise in his unfavorables. Who’s driving that? My initial guess was that it was women who were annoyed by his wisecrack about Carly Fiorina’s, and it’s true — if you compare his favorable rating in mid-September with his rating now, you’ll find it’s declined among women. Previously it was 38/55; now it’s 33/62. That’s women generally, though, not Republican women specifically, so there’s no easy conclusion to draw about the drop in his favorables among Republican voters. There is, however, another group more closely associated with the GOP within which Trump has suffered even sharper losses. Ta da — it’s conservatives, who split 57/35 in Trump’s favor before the debate and now split 50/46, a perilously narrow margin for a guy selling himself as the great hope of conservative populists. Maybe those Club for Growth ads attacking him on his fiscal priorities are starting to bite. That would also explain why Trump seems to have hit a ceiling overall: If he’s begun to lose conservatives because of his record as a liberal, realistically there’s no way he’s getting them back. He told CNN last night that if he fell badly behind, i.e. to one or two percent, he’d get out of the race. That’s unlikely to happen, but what if he fell to, say, 15 percent while Rubio and Carson both bounced out to a steady 25-30 percent? Would that be enough of a margin for him to quit?

Lots of good news in this poll for Carson too, needless to say, as he’s still a strong third (with more second-choice voters than Rubio). He just banked an amazing $20 million in his third-quarter fundraising, an astounding haul for a guy who’s relying mainly on small contributions, not truckloads of dough from the wealthy a la Jeb Bush. By comparison, Rand Paul — the one-time great hope of the Ron Paul revolution — pulled in just $2.5 million last quarter. Yeesh. In lieu of an exit question, here’s Trump taking the “Green Lantern theory” of the presidency to its logical conclusion.



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KEYWORDS: gangof8; poll; rubio; trump; yougov
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To: knarf

Cruz is my top choice.

Trump isn’t even on the radar since he is not a conservative and I don’t want a self promoting realityTV star in the White House.

If Trump is the GOP nominee I will vote for him in the general election, however he is way down on the list in the primaries.

Personally I doubt Trump will even make it through Iowa and New Hampshire. I think his shtick will get old and tiresome to all but his most devoted followers.


21 posted on 10/02/2015 7:09:22 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: SeekAndFind
Dump Trump!

The dynamic of the race has changed, Donald Trump is now the problem.

Heretofore, we could agree that Donald Trump had broken ground because he had broken rules and gotten away with it. He opened the fundamental question in this election, immigration, and made it legitimate to actually oppose unrestrained immigration. This is the most important issue of this election, and Donald Trump should be thanked as he exits.

The exit of Donald Trump is only a question of time. Meanwhile his role has changed, he no longer serves as a shock force opening the debate to matters favorable to the conservative base, he now acts as an impediment to nominating a real conservative who can stop the real threat, Rino Marco Rubio.

Of the top candidates presently in this race, Trump, Rubio, Carson, Fiorina and Cruz only Cruz is a conservative. Trump's biography is a conservative nightmare. Fiorina is vulnerable on her tenure at HP, and her indisputable histrionic skills cannot compensate on the presidential level for these deficiencies, although she might make a splendid vice presidential candidate. Carson, as I predicted, will continue to make gaffes and see his boomlet fade away.

That leaves Marco Rubio as the most dangerous candidate in the field after Trump. Rubio is a snake and he must not be permitted to deceive unwary conservatives, he has discredited himself and disqualified himself by virtue of is treachery on amnesty. Rubio is a deceiver who gained office by seducing the tea party and then immediately sold out to the Mitch McConnell establishment. He has slipped between the sheets with the likes of Chuck Schumer. He has failed us on immigration the key issue in this election.

However, Rubio is possessed of matinee idol good looks, he is facile on his feet or in an interview, he has a compelling biography which he tells compellingly. He is a very dangerous candidate. And he is all the more dangerous because Jeb Bush is clearly yesterday's news.

Donald Trump is not our salvation. So long as Donald Trump's lead exists, even as it deteriorates with one gaffe after another, (also as I predicted), conservatives desperate in honest fear for the Republic will cling to him as to a golden calf. He is not the answer to Jeb Bush, he never was, that fear was unfounded and unnecessary. Similarly, he is not the answer to Marco Rubio.

It will take a real conservative to defeat Marco Rubio and will take a real campaigner who can generate respect as well as attention to himself while on his feet. Ted Cruz has never put a foot down wrong. Cruz is not a walking gaffe machine. His body is not a life-support system for his ego. He is an intellectual and forensic match for Marco Rubio. Ted Cruz's and adding establishment fighter who, unlike Trump, has never bribed politicians and, unlike Marco Rubio, has never betrayed the tea party.

The longer we flirt with The Donald the stronger Marco Rubio will be. Dump Trump now!


22 posted on 10/02/2015 7:11:02 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: HarleyLady27; LS; BlackFemaleArmyCaptain; RoosterRedux; SamAdams76

The GOPe is scared $hi$less of Trump’s numbers amongst all adults. His favorables are growing with the general population but declining with the GOP. Again, the GOPe would rather lose the election than have Trump as the nominee. Basically, while Trump has declined somewhat in the RCP average, he has stabilized along with everyone else. Even Amnestio, who they are touting, has stabilized in the last 2 weeks. This race is in a holding pattern for now. Next debate is going to be key for Trump.


23 posted on 10/02/2015 7:11:42 AM PDT by usafa92 (Conservative in Jersey)
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To: rrrod

“Trump hasn’t learned to skip the attacks on the other candidates. The constant attacks will come back to haunt the eventual nominee. ATTACK the RATS!”

The RINOs are the enemy.

They despise the base, but want you to continue on their plantation.

I took the freedom trail and haven’t looked back.

This election - and apparently worldwide - is a reaction to those entrenched in government.

I won’t vote RINO. They left me. Whatever consequence occurs is all on them.


24 posted on 10/02/2015 7:14:16 AM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion ( "Forward lies the crown, and onward is the goal.")
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To: SeekAndFind

Yep Rubio is on his way! He is firmly in....4th place!


25 posted on 10/02/2015 7:15:07 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Longbow1969

“There is a long, long way to go and to assume Trump will be the leader throughout is silly.”

I heard Newt Gingrich cite the stats from the previous 5 - 6 elections concerning the front runner at this particular stage in the election. It is bad news for you; except for two instances, the front runner at this point won the nomination.


26 posted on 10/02/2015 7:16:43 AM PDT by odawg
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To: usafa92

I agree...this next debate is right in Trump’s arena...

How much expertize does Rubio have in business...

Some in Carson ...Carly failed in both HP and Lucent...

Bush is an idiot, has he ever held a job in his life?


27 posted on 10/02/2015 7:17:34 AM PDT by HarleyLady27 (I have such happy days, and hope you do to!!!)
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To: Dante3
FOX has been pushing Rubio. He keeps popped up again this morning even though he has had nothing insightful to offer...

Has rubio chimed in on the No Fly Zone issue? Perhaps he could join the gang of 3 (Fiorino, Kasich, McCarthy) and make it a gang of 4.

28 posted on 10/02/2015 7:18:57 AM PDT by C210N (When people fear government there is tyranny; when government fears people there is liberty)
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To: SeekAndFind

Is this a Florida poll?


29 posted on 10/02/2015 7:20:33 AM PDT by GOPJ ("The Lives of Others" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPjzfGChGlE)
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To: nathanbedford

“So long as Donald Trump’s lead exists, even as it deteriorates with one gaffe after another, (also as I predicted)...”

It is not deteriorating as of today, and cite the gaffe that has not caused it thus far.


30 posted on 10/02/2015 7:21:39 AM PDT by odawg
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To: Longbow1969

“to assume Trump will be the leader throughout is silly.”

Optimistic, perhaps. Something that few conservatives have felt for decades. If Trump is not elected President, nothing will change. Everyone else, excepting Cruz, are members of the Uniparty.

And if President Trump can’t effect any change at all, then this country is done for real. Only a catastrophe of Biblical proportions would alter this country’s slide into Fabian socialism and worse. In 10 years, this country will be where Europe is: overrun by 3rd world peasants, criminals and gangs of every ethnic and religious stripe conceivable.


31 posted on 10/02/2015 7:23:35 AM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: ObozoMustGo2012
It was how decisions were made and negotiations were conducted in the 50's ....

Outside ....

In front of all the girls ....

And the two negotiators pretty much never had to do it again ... amicably

32 posted on 10/02/2015 7:26:01 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true.)
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To: Dante3

Our “unbiased” media ... still desperately searching for someone Hillary! can beat.


33 posted on 10/02/2015 7:30:43 AM PDT by JennysCool (My hypocrisy goes only so far)
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To: SeekAndFind
Surprisingly, Carly Fiorina’s only improved modestly despite her own universally praised debate performance

Since 1984, the infotainment industry (which runs the "debates" AND the polls) has sworn an oath: "Never another Reagan".

Every once in a while, they tip their hand. On October 3, 2007, Dan Balz wrote in the Washington Post, "But the Republican contest remains unsettled just three months before the first votes will be cast...", implying that the actual casting of votes was somehow in opposition to a script, or predetermined outcome. This very year, the media has kept repeating that the two "inevitable" nominees were the two nobody wanted.

Fiorina has nowhere to go but down (metaphorically speaking).

34 posted on 10/02/2015 7:31:18 AM PDT by Jim Noble (Diseases desperate grown Are by desperate appliance relieved Or not at al)
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To: nathanbedford

Trump is the only one that can get the slugs ( Bush, Rubio) out of the race, because he can out last them.

Trump will drop out after he clears the field for Cruz.


35 posted on 10/02/2015 7:32:34 AM PDT by Beagle8U (jeb! continues to not only step in it, but lie down and roll in it! - freedumb2003)
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To: SeekAndFind

The Cheap Labor Express desperately wants to knock Trump out and elevate one of their amnesty candidates.
Despite the best efforts of The Ministry of Propaganda (including Fox News) to boost their amnesty candidates, the citizens aren’t buying.


36 posted on 10/02/2015 7:48:27 AM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No Peace - No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: CitizenUSA

Enough for me, I would never support him after he schemed with Schumer against the citizens.
He is owned by The Cheap Labor Express and is a liar.


37 posted on 10/02/2015 7:50:53 AM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No Peace - No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: SeekAndFind

Life long Republican here-—

Cannot vote for Rubio under any circumstance.


38 posted on 10/02/2015 7:51:44 AM PDT by ridesthemiles
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To: catnipman

Trump is not a conservative, he is a populist protectionist masquerading as a conservative when it is convenient for him.


39 posted on 10/02/2015 7:56:47 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: SeekAndFind
The manipulated race is really taking shape now. They will fade out RINOs Carly and Jeb.

McConnell butt-boy Marco Rubio will be the one and only establishment candidate against the three anti establishment candidates, Cruz, Trump and Carson.

This is how the establishment thinks that they can win.

40 posted on 10/02/2015 8:03:54 AM PDT by FreeReign
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