Nate Silver has been wrong about Donald Trump since June 2015. That's over sixteen months now of him making a fool of himself about Trump's chances.
Link to article: http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/us-election-2016-statistician-nate-silvers-big-donald-trump-mistake-20161030-gseaye.html
Stopped clock. Not even a gold one.
Nate Silver has been wrong about Donald Trump since June 2015. That's over sixteen months now of him making a fool of himself about Trump's chances.
Why bother posting anything by him? He admitted way back that if Trump won the GOP nomination, that all of his polling methods were wrong.
Nate silver is going to be to the Democrats in 2016 what Dick Morris was to the Republicans in 2012. Big difference is dick’s predictions were not until the day of the election. Nate’s predictions have been All year.
Two mistakes, not just one. The first is the one mentioned, introducing his own biases into the mix.
The second, more important one is basing his predictions on technical analysis (in financial terms) rather than fundamentals. Lots of people bet themselves into the poorhouse when they predicted that the financially sound status of the vacuum tube couldn’t possibly be brought down by a tiny little transistor marketed by a lowly Japanese company. The transistor, however, had the fundamentals on its side, as demonstrated by the decades of dominance of Moore’s Law.
In this election, the fundamentals outweigh the technical analysis. People want change, both in policy and in tone. They’ve had enough of the same old promises, the same old results, and the same old lies from the same old liars.
It took a marketing expert by the name of Donald J. Trump to see the time was right for a brand-new — and hugely improved — presidential product, and a brave hero — in the same person — to take it to market.
Nate Silver missed big-time on the 2014 election.
When will he ever learn?
VIDEO OF LIVE TV SCREEN.
Dem Political Analyst Doug Schoen Pulls Support From Clinton: “Deeply Concerned About Constitutional Crisis”
He is more of an old line Democrat, not a progressive, and had worked on Clinton’s 2008 campaign.
Nickarama | October 30, 2016 9:30 pm | 131 Comments
He should know better. He does know better. And he knows how to make the necessary corrections. But, I have to assume that he actually believes that the Dems will outvote the Republicans by 7 or 8 points. Those are the sort of numbers the pollsters are using and some are worse than that.
But I still expect Little Nate to tell us that the race is "growing tighter" and that the latest email scandal is "giving Trump momentum" as he moves the needle back toward a 50/50 chance for Trump and Hillary next Tuesday. That's what the garbage polls will be doing and he will follow.
Great pluck, 2ndDivisionVet.