Posted on 11/02/2016 11:02:53 AM PDT by TheRef
If any poll using 2012 modeling is showing Trump up 5... add at least 3-5 to it... this election won’t look ANYTHING like 12... folks have been in denial about that from day one.
Absolutely the disenfranchised are filtered out as non likely voters, because generally speaking if you haven’t voted in the last 2 or 3 cycles pollsters assume you won’t vote this time, no matter how much you tell them you intend to.... this is basically the Monster Vote... and if it exists (and I fully believe it does, particularly in the rust belt).. Trump will get far more than any poll is showing.
The only reason all cycle to question Trump doing well in WI, was the GOPe attempt to stop him during the primaries there... I originally had fear they went so far overboard there, that they may have poisoned the electorate there for Trump during the General... that doesn’t appear to be the case, so I have no reason to question Trump being able to win WI.
CT, don’t know enough about the state to comment. I do think Trump has potential to upset in places no one is remotely thinking about... its hard to imagine if Trump does wind up running the table heavy in places like OH, WI, MI, PA and IA that he will not upset and surprise in other places... My gut, anyplace Hillary is polling less than 5 up, Trump is likely to take... anything she’s up 5-10... surprises could happen.. I don’t care what part of the country or what its historic voting patterns are.
4 yes
The only conceivable ways that the election can be sent to the House are (1) a 269-269 tie in EVs or (2) McMullin wins Utah and neither Trump nor the Witch quite get to 270.
In either case, the weak-kneed Pubbies would probably prefer Trump, but they might try to extract some concessions out of him in return for their support.
It would be better than a 'Rat win but worse than an outright Trump win in the electoral vote. But it's very unlikely to happen.
RCP is obviously dominated by 'Rats and their "averaging" of biased polling results only enhances the bias in their direction. Polling averages are generally meaningless because they lump together various polls using various methods and biases, and taken at different times. Garbage in, garbage out!
Survey Monkey uses website consumers who are searching for online coupons. As a condition of receiving the coupon, they are asked to take a marketing survey. At the conclusion of that survey they are asked if they wish to take a current events survey for additional discounts. It is this second survey that is used.
The trade-off is that it is still self-selected of people looking for product discounts, but the population is very high (their methodology supposedly handles this).
-PJ
did you send to drudge or anyone who could report on it?
Tonight will be interesting for sure.
that was a map mistake. I have MN going blue.
Yep, you’re right. I had MN going blue, it was a map mistake. corrected it. Thanks!
It is certainly manufactured "news" as it can, at best, represent the current situation.
Clairvoyance as to the future would be great, but who really has that?
It is certainly manufactured "news" as it can only, at best, represent the current situation.
Clairvoyance as to the future would be great, but who really has that?
It is certainly manufactured "news" as it can only, at best, represent the current situation.
Clairvoyance as to the future would be great, but who really has that?
thanks, I try to keep it realistic. It’s all poll-based, as you can see from the article. I can definitely see a plausible Trump landslide if MI, WI and PA go red, and it could actually happen. I can’t see a Hillary one though.
trump has no traction in CT
DEM sweep here.
Connecticut, I think is in play for Trump. My uncle lives there and the Rat Governor, Mallory, is unpopular, taxes are being raised and companies are fleeing (GE moved their HQ to Boston, Rogers moved their HQ to Arizona). I hope Nutmeggers will vote for Trump and Dan Carter and I’d love to see John Larson (D for dumbass - 1 CD) defeated. (Dad knows the Larsons)
Damn, Dem will sweep :-(... My uncle is sick of the idiots in Hartford. Dad said the worst thing voters did was letting Weicker win and not electing Tom Scott for Governor.
1)I hope it’s right
2)Don’t know
3)Sure, WI is not out of play, but it would be extra. Senate race now a tossup there, Johnson closed the gab, Feingold hit with scandal
4)CT is one my 12 safe Shillery states.
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