Skip to comments.Ref's Electoral Projection 11/02/16: Trump 279, Clinton 259 (Analyzing 84 polls from last two week)
Posted on 11/02/2016 11:02:53 AM PDT by TheRef
Ref's Electoral Projection as of 11/2/16 - Analyzing 84 polls in 10 states from the last two weeks
I assume Trump will win Maine-2 and all five Nebraska electoral votes
Polls Only - Clinton 293, Trump 245
Sample Bias - Clinton 272, Trump 266
Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias - Clinton 272, Trump 266
REF'S PROJECTION: Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias + Late breaking voters (FBI + incumbency rule) - Clinton 259, Trump 279
My Twitter account is just getting started. Follow me here!
||Florida||Clinton 44.9, Trump 45.4|
|*Alliance/ESA||10/27-10/31||530LV||Clinton 47, Trump 46||
Polls Only - Trump +0.5
Sample bias - Trump +1.7
Shy Voter Bias - Trump +2.3
Late breaking - Trump +2.5
|SurveyMonkey||10/24-10/31||2809LV||Clinton 46, Trump 45|
|Google Consumer Surveys||10/25-10/31||1286LV||Clinton 37, Trump 44|
|Remington Research||10/30||990LV||Clinton 44, Trump 48|
|UPI/CVoter||10/23-10/29||408LV||Clinton 48, Trump 47|
|*Emerson College||10/26-10/27||500LV||Clinton 46, Trump 45|
|*NYT/Sienna College||10/25-10/27||820LV||Clinton 42, Trump 46|
|*NBC/Marist College||10/25-10/26||780LV||Clinton 45, Trump 44|
|Gravis||10/25-10/26||1301RV||Clinton 48, Trump 47|
|Reuters/Ipsos||10/21-10/27||800LV||Clinton 49, Trump 45|
|*PPP||10/25-10/26||740LV||Clinton 48, Trump 44|
|Dixie Strategies||10/25-10/26||700LV||Clinton 42, Trump 46|
|*Bloomberg||10/21-10/24||810LV||Clinton 43, Trump 45|
|Florida Atlantic Univ||10/21-10/23||500LV||Clinton 46, Trump 43|
|CBS/YouGov||10/21-10/22||1040LV||Clinton 43, Trump 46|
|Ohio||Clinton 44.0, Trump 46.1|
|SurveyMonkey||10/20-10/28||1980LV||Clinton 40, Trump 45||
Polls Only - Trump +2.1
Sample bias - Trump +2.9
Shy Voter Bias - Trump +3.4
Late breaking - Trump +3.5
|Google Consumer Surveys||10/25-10/31||980LV||Clinton 40, Trump 45|
|Remington Research||10/30||1187LV||Clinton 43, Trump 48|
|UPI/CVoter||10/23-10/29||340LV||Clinton 50, Trump 47|
|*Emerson College||10/26-10/27||800LV||Clinton 45, Trump 45|
|Reuters/Ipsos||10/21-10/27||508LV||Clinton 45, Trump 45|
|Trafalger Group||10/24-10/26||1150LV||Clinton 44, Trump 49|
|*Suffolk||10/17-10/19||500LV||Clinton 45, Trump 45|
|North Carolina||Clinton 45.5, Trump 44.9|
|WRAL/Survey USA||10/28-10/31||660LV||Clinton 44, Trump 51||
Polls Only - Clinton +0.6
Sample bias - Trump +0.5
Shy Voter Bias - Trump +1.3
Late breaking - Trump +1.6
|*Alliance/ESA||10/27-10/31||530LV||Clinton 46, Trump 46|
|SurveyMonkey||10/25-10/31||1570LV||Clinton 47, Trump 44|
|Google Consumer Surveys||10/25-10/31||730LV||Clinton 34, Trump 41|
|Remington Research||10/30||1180LV||Clinton 45, Trump 47|
|UPI/CVoter||10/23-10/29||350LV||Clinton 48, Trump 48|
|*Emerson College||10/26-10/27||650LV||Clinton 48, Trump 45|
|*Elon Univ||10/23-10/27||710LV||Clinton 42, Trump 41|
|Reuters/Ipsos||10/14-10/27||640LV||Clinton 48, Trump 44|
|*Marist College||10/25-10/26||780LV||Clinton 47, Trump 41|
|Gravis||10/25-10/26||1270RV||Clinton 49, Trump 47|
|*Quinnipiac||10/20-10/26||700LV||Clinton 47, Trump 43|
|*Monmouth||10/20-10/23||400LV||Clinton 47, Trump 46|
|Wisconsin||Clinton 47.7, Trump 43.3|
|SurveyMonkey||10/25-10/31||1200LV||Clinton 44, Trump 42||
Polls Only - Clinton +4.4
Sample bias - Clinton +3.5
Shy Voter Bias - Clinton +2.1
Late breaking - Clinton +1.0
|Remington Research||10/30||1170LV||Clinton 46, Trump 42|
|UPI/CVoter||10/23-10/29||370LV||Clinton 50,.Trump 46|
|*Emerson College||10/27-10/28||400LV||Clinton 48, Trump 42|
|Reuters/Ipsos||10/14-10/27||520LV||Clinton 47, Trump 42|
|UPI/CVoter||10/16-10/23||360LV||Clinton 51, Trump 46|
|*Let America Work||10/18-10/20||600LV||Clinton 48, Trump 43|
|Iowa||Clinton 43.0, Trump 44.4|
|SurveyMonkey||10/25-10/31||980LV||Clinton 40, Trump 45||
Polls Only - Trump +1.4
Sample bias - Trump +2.6
Shy Voter bias - Trump +2.9
Late breaking - Trump +3.1
|UPI/CVoter||10/23-10/29||330LV||Clinton 48, Trump 48|
|Reuters/Ipsos||10/7-10/27||360LV||Clinton 44, Trump 42|
|*Quinnipiac||10/20-10/26||790LV||Clinton 44, Trump 44|
|*Des Moines Register||10/3-10/6||642LV||Clinton 39, Trump 43|
|Nevada||Clinton 44.0, Trump 43.4|
|*Alliance/ESA||10/27-10/31||530LV||Clinton 44, Trump 40||
Polls Only - Clinton +0.6
Sample bias - Trump +0.5
Shy Voter Bias - Trump +0.9
Late breaking - Trump +1.1
|Survey Monkey||10/25-10/31||1010LV||Clinton 43, Trump 42|
|Remington Research||10/30||790LV||Clinton 44, Trump 48|
|UPI/CVoter||10/23-10/29||310LV||Clinton 48, Trump 46|
|*Emerson College||10/26-10/27||550LV||Clinton 44, Trump 42|
|Reuters/Ipsos||10/7-10/27||290LV||Clinton 40, Trump 40|
|Gravis||10/25||880RV||Clinton 46, Trump 46|
|*Marist||10/20-10/24||710LV||Clinton 43, Trump 43|
|Arizona||Clinton 43.6, Trump 45.4|
|SurveyMonkey||10/25-10/31||1460LV||Clinton 43, Trump 44||
Polls Only - Trump +1.3
Adjusted - Trump +2.6
Shy Voter bias - Trump +2.8
Late breaking - Trump +3.3
|*Data Orbital||10/29-10/30||550LV||Clinton 41, Trump 45|
|UPI/CVoter||10/23-10/29||370LV||Clinton 43, Trump 51|
|*CBS/YouGov||10/26-10/28||990LV||Clinton 42, Trump 44|
|Reuters/Ipsos||10/14-10/27||550LV||Clinton 43, Trump 42|
|Saguaro Strategoes||10/22-10/24||2390LV||Clinton 48, Trump 46|
|*Monmouth||10/21-10/24||400LV||Clinton 45, Trump 46|
|Colorado||Clinton 44.0, Trump 41.3|
|SurveyMonkey||10/25-10/31||1530LV||Clinton 43, Trump 39||
Polls Only - Clinton +2.7
Sample bias - Clinton +1.9
Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.8
Late breaking - Trump +0.5
|Remington Research||10/30/||950LV||Clinton 45, Trump 44|
|Reuters/Ipsos||10/14-10/27||440LV||Clinton 46, Trump 43|
|*CBS/YouGov||10/26-10/28||1000LV||Clinton 42, Trump 39|
|Pennsylvania||Clinton 46.0, Trump 42.5|
|*The Franklin and Marshall poll showing an eleven point lead is excluded. It was taken from a voter list, so new voters are not included, has a 5.1 margin of error, and was completed almost entirely before James Comey's announcement on Friday. This is definitely not an eleven point race and this poll only serves to throw off the average.||
Polls Only - Clinton +3.5
Sample bias - Clinton +2.3
Shy Voter bias - Clinton +1.3
Late breaking - Clinton +0.2
|*Alliance/ESA||10/27-10/31||530LV||Clinton 43, Trump 44|
|SurveyMonkey||10/25-10/31||2260LV||Clinton 49, Trump 41|
|Google Consumer Surveys||10/25-10/31||1030LV||Clinton 37, Trump 39|
|Remington Research||10/30||1250LV||Clinton 45, Trump 43|
|Gravis||10/25-10/30||3220RV||Clinton 47, Trump 44|
|UPI/CVoter||10/23-10/29||370LV||Clinton 50, Trump 46|
|*CBS/YouGov||10/26-10/28||1090LV||Clinton 48, Trump 40|
|Reuters/Ipsos||10/21-10/27||450.LV||Clinton 48, Trump 46|
|*Emerson||10/25-10/26||550LV||Clinton 48, Trump 43|
|*Muhlenberg College||10/20-10/26||420LV||Clinton 45, Trump 39|
|New Hampshire||Clinton 45.6, Trump 42.3|
|*Alliance/ESA||10/27-10/31||530LV||Clinton 44, Trump 40||
Polls Only - Clinton +3.3
Sample bias - Clinton +1.6
Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.3
Late breaking - Trump +0.4
|*Univ. of New Hampshire||10/26-10/30||620LV||Clinton 46, Trump 39|
|UPI/CVoter||10/23-10/29||310LV||Clinton 50, Trump 47|
|Inside Sources||10/26-10/28||410LV||Clinton 43, Trump 45|
|Reuters/Ipsos||10/7-10/27||160LV||Clinton 44, Trump 40|
|*Emerson||10/23-10/25||600LV||Clinton 46, Trump 43|
|*Monmouth||10/22-10/25||400LV||Clinton 46, Trump 42|
It's a pity so many have voted early.
Perhaps some Federal restrictions are needed on the length of time for early voting?
I personally prefer voting on one day with fingers dipped in dye...:^)
Newt Gingrich pointed out last night that in Minnesota, they polled 75000 schoolchildren and Trump beat Clinton..normally when little kids “vote” they are going by their parents beliefs..not that I think MN will go red this year(Too many Muslims in St. Paul) but hey anything is possible
We need PA. That’s it. NV and CO are concerning
Ref - Are you factoring in the differences in early voting?
For example, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire have essentially no early voting, so the election results in those states will presumably be more influenced by “late breaking voters.”
North Carolina, on the other hand, may have already collected 50% of their ballots.
I have a friend who lives in West Linn, OR, she says the area is pretty Conservative(She came here from Australia and raised her son to be Conservative..she hates Socialism since she lived it in Australia) she says once you get to Portland its nothing but hippy liberal freaks
I have New Hampshire going to Trump. Pennsylvania does have early voting but you can change your votes there. Pennsylvania could to Trump, I have him losing it by 0.2%. When margins are this close, momentum means so much, but PA is one tough nut to crack. I lived there when Bush ran in 2000 and remember Philly always providing what they need. It could happen. If Michigan really is tied, like a poll today shows, PA could go.
If you want to study voter fraud come to NH.
I lived in West Portland for 7 years.
I used to joke that all the people who thought Berkeley was too conservative moved to Portland and Eugene.
I enjoy my morning coffee while looking at the (biased) RCP average and seeing it go from H+15 to H+1.7 in two weeks.
RCP this year has been so obnoxious. They include obvious outliers intended to throw off their averages.
New poll Trump + 3 in Virginia!
I’d like to see reemergence of federalism. No 270 votes? Fine, send the election to the House of Reps and see if weak-kneed pubbies can find a backbone.
It isn’t reaching the old feminists. Trying very hard, without being obnoxious, to show a 78-year-old female the light. Nothing matters to her except having a female POTUS. She won’t accept any damaging information. A guy who calls himself Republican (68) has become tight lipped. He only accepts NYT/WSJ/Economist as fact. Nothing will make him vote for Trump. A Pinot Noir Progressive has become quiet and is pursuing dual citizenship based on legacy heritage in Lichtenstein. He’s wealthy, but not THAT wealthy, IMO.
Life is just fine for these folks. They do not want revolution. They “do not believe” Hillary will start WWIII, is a criminal, a crook or, especially, a murderer or accomplice to murder. Obamacare means nothing to them. Their children can afford the premiums or have employer-based insurance.
All three will vote for Hillary. They will not accept any negative information about her.
2014 map is Congressional results.
All of them are positioned for big jobs in a Hillary admin (gag).
For me, having to put up w/ hokey hillbilly Bill is a real downer.
Yesterday, he had Trump ahead in Florida, but had not updated his main map.
save for later
This looks very doable- no pie in the sky and he can still take Michigan and Pennsylvania because of Obamacare and a general lack of enthusiasm among Democrats.
(2) Could it be that LVs in most of these polls don't include completely new voters and voters who haven't voted in a long time, who tend to be enthusiastic for Trump? And what about Dem LV's being discouraged by the scandals surrounding their Witch and not voting in their usual numbers?
(3) Wisconsin: No reason for Trump to be discouraged there, given Scott Walker's three wins vs. intense 'Rat agitation.
(4) Could CT be in play for Trump? Recall last gubernatorial election there where the 'Rat incumbent won, but by narrow margin.
(5) What is a SURVEY MONKEY poll? Seems like it has more connection to DONKEYS - the Democrats who run it - than it does to monkeys. (LOL!)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.