Free Republic

A dozen years ago, Democrat Al Gore drew 540,000 votes more than Republican George W. Bush but lost the presidency when Bush carried Florida and won 271 electoral votes. There is no reason that couldn’t happen again, with President Barack Obama winning a narrow popular vote victory and losing in the Electoral College. Most of the same states are in play as were in 2000, and any close popular vote outcome raises the possibility of a split decision, especially because Obama is likely to “waste” large numbers of votes in carrying a handful of populous states.

Republican strategist Karl Rove said Friday he believes North Carolina and Indiana are “gone” for President Barack Obama in November and that Wisconsin has become a “battleground” state. “I think North Carolina is gone just like Indiana is gone. Obama has no chance to win them,” Rove told Fox News host Bill O’Reilly. “I think Ohio and Florida are leaning today towards Romney. I think places like Iowa and Colorado are in danger of floating into the Republican column. And states like Nevada and Pennsylvania are moving from lean Democrat into toss-up category. And on June 5th, mark my words,...

If you think '08 was bad... you ain't seen nothin' yet Anybody who's ever read-up on Alinsky and the Cloward-Piven strategy can tell you that much of their technique for attacking the establishment involves 'overwhelming' public facilities, government institutions, and financial systems in order to bring bring them to a grinding halt. They then aim to get what they want through blackmail and/or a collapse of the target, inflicting wholesale changes upon the current status quo via civil disruption/force.  With a shaky, state-by-state patchwork being all there is to protect the sanctity of the democratic process in this country (and...

Straw polls, real polls, debates, caucuses and primaries — these comprise the public side of presidential campaigns 14 months before Election Day. But behind the scenes, strategists for President Obama and his major Republican opponents are already focused like a laser on the Electoral College. The emerging general election contest gives every sign of being highly competitive, unlike 2008. Of course, at this point in 1983 and 1995, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, respectively, were in trouble; and in 1991 George H.W. Bush still looked safe. Unexpectedly strong economic growth could make Obama’s reelection path much easier than it currently...

Like Poe’s purloined letter, the Republican plan to heist the 2012 presidential election sits before us in plain view. And going Poe one better, it is perfectly legal. The first part of the strategy has been unfolding for months. Since the 2010 elections brought Republicans to power in numerous swing states, officials in many of those states have made it harder for minority, poor and young voters to cast their ballots. GOP governments have been curtailing early voting (in Ohio and Florida) and requiring voters to produce official photo-identification cards (in Wisconsin). In South Carolina, the poll tax lives again:...

Popular-vote pact picks up steam A once-sleepy movement that would upend the Electoral College, reverse two centuries of constitutional practice and elect presidents by direct popular vote has quietly picked up momentum in recent days, with Republican Party leaders scrambling to stanch a steady stream of defections by GOP state lawmakers to the plan. *snip* Under the idea introduced in 2006 by Stanford University consulting professor John Koza, states that join the NPV compact pledge to give all of their electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the national popular vote - even if a majority of the state’s...

AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka said that the U.S. electoral process has been broken by the Supreme Court with its ruling in the Citizens United campaign finance case. Trumka, speaking at a National Press Club luncheon on Friday said the Supreme Court had helped to break the American electoral system by ruling that corporations were covered by the First Amendment. The Supreme Court’s 5-4 ruling in Citizens United vs. the FEC lifted restrictions on companies, unions, and other organizations, allowing them to make independent expenditures in political campaigns.

Just as every Christmas brings the same tired argument over nativity scenes, Christmas trees and Santa Claus, every election cycle brings forth a fresh attempt to ignore the Constitutional establishment of the Electoral College, and allow the city centers to run roughshod over rural Americans. The 2012 election is no different, but it does bring a fresh approach to the age old problem of a "popular vote" Presidential election... by having the state legislators pass a law, obligating their EC votes to the national popular vote winners. Under this scheme, state legislatures would pass legislation that would bind them to...

Migration from high-tax states to states with lower taxes and less government spending will dramatically alter the composition of future Congresses, according to a study by Americans for Tax Reform Eight states are projected to gain at least one congressional seat under reapportionment following the 2010 Census: Texas (four seats), Florida (two seats), Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington (one seat each). Their average top state personal income tax rate: 2.8 percent. By contrast, New York and Ohio are likely to lose two seats each, while Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania will be...

http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/

The Massachusetts Legislature has approved a new law intended to bypass the Electoral College system and ensure that the winner of the presidential election is determined by the national popular vote. "What we are submitting is the idea that the president should be selected by the majority of people in the United States of America," Senator James B. Eldridge, an Acton Democrat, said before the Senate voted to enact the bill. Under the new bill, he said, "Every vote will be of the same weight across the country." But Senate minority leader Richard Tisei said the state was meddling with...

You won’t hear about it in the mainstream media, but the Electoral College is on the verge of being eliminated. One important legislative vote could occur Thursday. Two others could occur in the upcoming days and weeks. A California-based group, National Popular Vote, is lobbying hard for a dangerous piece of anti-Electoral College legislation. My NRO article on the mechanics of the legislation is here. Five states have already approved NPV, but now three additional states are dangerously close to joining them: Delaware, Massachusetts, and New York. Another trio of state legislatures approved the scheme, but their governors vetoed the...

I heard something on the talk-radio news today, but could not hear it completely. It sounded as if someone in Congress is sending up a bill to eliminate the Electoral College process for presidential elections? I cannot find this anywhere yet. Does anyone know of this or similar story? I got really angry when I thought I heard they want to delete it and really are trying.

SARAH PALIN'S CERTAIN PATH TO ELECTION IN 2012 The McCain/Palin team were faced with almost every possible impediment to victory.Number one,and perhaps the key factor,was a media hugely,in fact obsessively in the can for Obama.Further,rather than as a corollary simply ignoring the GOP team the media embarked on a campaign of vilification perhaps unprecedented in recent electoral history-to the level in fact that any semblance of balance was destroyed. Secondly,the Republican team were shouldered with the burden of an extremely unpopular President,so unpopular that mechanisms were found to keep both Bush and Cheney from the nominating convention. Thirdly,and perhaps the...

President Certified After Objection Delay Thursday, January 06, 2005 WASHINGTON — A joint session of Congress resumed meeting Thursday evening and quickly finalized certification of President Bush's (search) 286 Electoral College votes to Democrat John Kerry's 251. A candidate needs 270 votes to win the presidential election. Kerry running mate John Edwards received one Electoral vote. The certification was delayed for several hours after Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., and Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones, D-Ohio, stopped the formal declaration of Bush's second term to protest voting irregularities. The joint session had met earlier in the day but quickly recessed per congressional...

Marblehead, Mass. (PRWEB) December 11, 2008 -- Dr. Mary Maxwell, political scientist, said today: "Obama's silence about his citizenship is indefensible and unworkable. Next Monday, the 538 members of the Electoral college meet and they are at risk, themselves, of violating state election laws if they participate in a fraud." "If a presidential candidate's claim that he meets the requirements are later found to be false," Maxwell said,"one or more of the 50 states could bring charges against him. But that would be a terrible thing if it comes after Inauguration Day. It would be better if a state would...

A lawyer playing a major part in a California lawsuit urging officials to prevent the state's 55 Electoral College votes from being recorded for Barack Obama until questions about his citizenship are resolved has written to county clerks around the state, seeking an investigation into a process that has allowed a dead woman to be listed as an official elector. According to Gary Kreep, executive director of the United States Justice Foundation, the clerks have been advised about the "irregularity" in the list of electors provided by the Democratic Party in California. "In the 28th Congressional District (Congressman Howard Berman),...

I’m pretty sure that I’ve never mentioned the birth certificate issue up until this point, even in the heat of the campaign.I have to confess that I have no idea what to make of the fact that, despite all of the lawsuits (most of which were thrown out due to lack of standing, which in turn makes one wonder, if a US citizen has no standing to challenge whether or not a presidential candidate is eligible to be president, who does?), the Obama campaign could easily put this to rest by simply unsealing the birth certificate, which (coincidentally with his...

The chasm between those who want President-elect Barack Obama to produce his birth certificate to verify his eligibility to hold the nation's highest office and those who simply support the Democrat is widening. "The Constitution means what we today decide it means," opined one participant on a new WND forum that offers readers an opportunity to express their opinion on the birth certificate dispute.

What if Electoral College Elects Sarah Palin to Presidency? Satire By John LillpopWhat if Barack Obama is declared a non-citizen and ineligible to serve as U.S. President?That is most improbable, right? Perhaps, but not impossible.In fact, a challenge to Obama's citizenship is scheduled to be the subject of a "conference" at the U.S. Supreme Court on December 5, 2008. A conference is a meeting of the Supreme Court Justices where cases are reviewed and the court decides which ones to accept for formal review. *The formal election of Barack Obama by the Electoral College is scheduled for December 15,...

Over the last 8 years, did George W. Bush help or hurt our party? We did see 2 electoral wins, and the first majority win since his dad trounced Dukakis. He helped keep a Democrat out of the White House for 8 years, and stave off out and out John Kerry liberalism, who is probably more liberal than Barack Hussein Obama. however, we got trounced pretty badly on November 4, all across the board, even in Governor's mansions, where Dems managed to do well in 2002. The Dems ranks grew over the '90's, going from 43% of the vote steadily...

the silence is deafening. it was a big issue in '00 and '04. hhhhmmmmmm!????

Its pretty simple. Assuming McCain wins the states he is currently in the lead or tied in according to RCP averages of state polls, then theses are the states he would have to carry to defeat Obama: State Obama (D) McCain (R) RCP Average RCP Status 2004 2000 Florida (27) 48.5 46.0 Obama +2.5 Toss Up Bush +5.0 Bush +0.1 Virginia (13) 50.0 45.8 Obama +4.2 Toss Up Bush +8.2 Bush +8.1 Ohio (20) 48.3 44.7 Obama +3.6 Toss Up Bush +2.1 Bush +3.5 Colorado (9) 50.5 45.0 Obama +5.5 Leaning Bush +4.7 Bush +8.4 This would make it a...

As the dynamic race between the McCain-Palin ticket and the Obama-Biden ticket hurtles toward Election Day, many respected private analysts have predicted that there is a very strong possibility that McCain-Palin will win an Electoral College victory despite the fact that Obama-Biden will win the popular vote nationwide. The Founders’ vision was of a body of electors that would protect the Republic from masters of the political arts who would not best serve the nation. If the Electoral College defeats the popular vote, then in this case, it is doing its job. In six weeks, America will elect a new...

Yahoo's current top story features a map that I think is a fair starting point for any electoral analysis. Barring anything huge in the final week, the electoral votes that are basically already decided look like this: Obama 234, McCain 163, Undecided 141.Obama thus needs to add only 36 EV's. The 11 unclaimed states are:FL 27PA 21OH 20NC 15VA 13IN 11MO 11CO 9NM 5NV 5NH 4If Obama takes only CO and FL (36 total EV), it's over. If he fails in six of the biggest seven prizes here, he still wins (with NH, NV, NM, CO, and VA, totalling exactly...

McCain's (Long) Road to Electoral Win 1. Abandon Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa. 2) Attack New Hampshire and New Mexico. 3) Defend Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio and North Carolina.

...The system is a relic of the early days of the republic when electors were supposed to be independent agents exercising their judgment in choosing a presidential candidate from a list of several contenders. Today, electors are party loyalists who almost always vote for their party’s nominee. On Friday, a group of legal scholars, political scientists, and systems specialists gathered at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology for a conference on the Electoral College. Their focus? How to better engineer the system...

This is looking uglier & uglier: Obama/Biden 353 McCain/Palin 185

Key Obama Blue 234 McCain Red 179 Too close to call Purple 125

What changed recently, other than McCain doing very well in Florida, for RealClear to move Florida back to toss-up? Obama now ahead in electoral map. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

McCain expands lead with slight shift in polls.

Might want to pin this post high and save it in your bookmarks. As most junkies know, the # McCain must reach is 270 out of 538 available votes. However, for those new to politics, many don't know this. As such, I thought I would give a "guide" as to how to get there. In the coming days you'll see a lot of "map analysis", the best of which is probably provided by John King of CNN. You'll see some optimistic McCain maps and some optimistic Obama maps. It should be noted that despite that, much has remained the same...

There are no nonpartisan state polls today for anything. PPP (D) released a poll of Ohio showing it tied at 45% each. Ohio is no doubt going to be a huge battleground again. In Gallup's national tracking poll, Obama and McCain are tied at 45% each. In Rassmusen's tracking poll, Obama is barely ahead, 47% to 45%.A quirk of the schedule this year may benefit the Republicans. Normally each candidate gets a bounce in the polls after his convention. However, the Democratic convention is followed immediately by John McCain's birthday, which will put him back in the spotlight and then...