RUMINT suggest Assad and his family have bugged out of the country for either Iran or Russia.
Russian federal aviation administration warns Russian airlines to be extremely cautious while operating in the eastern Med.
4 Navy E-6B “dooms day” planes are currently airborne - not totally unusual, but timing is everything.
tons or RUMINT. Don’t take everything reported as set.
RUMINT - Al Jazera reporting US coalition aircraft over the Iraq/Syria border. Looking for independent verification.
RUMINT - other reports of jets over the Lebanon/Syria border
REMEMBER - its still dark over there so proper identification questionable
Last update for the night
Monitoring the rumored air activity. Nothing burger as I suspected. Rumors flying all over the place tonight - but I don’t expect any action until tomorrow afternoon (midnight syria). since it is pretty reasonable that russian/iran/syrian air assets have been moved to ‘safe’ bases, the only things left to bomb would be major infrastructure - chemical plants, power, perhaps even assad’s govt buildings. One guided missile frigate with 60 cruse missiles isn’t going to do much except perhaps distract syrian/russian/iranian forces.
worst case scenario is that Iran takes the opportunity to launch a major strike against israel during the muck and confusion if a strike does happen.
Evening approaching Syria
Reading today’s current tea leaves.
- Russian ambassador states not only will Russia shoot down any missiles but will TARGET the launch platforms as well.
- USS Truman task force departs this afternoon and it will take approximately 9 days (at 30 kts) to get into position for any operational action against Syria. Apr 20th timeframe.
- Israel is eyeing Iran VERY closely. As I noted yesterday, Iran may use the ‘cover’ of any strike by US aligned forces to target Israel. RUMINT (though the JPost is reporting it) consists of Israeli promise to destroy Damascus if Iran (and probably its proxies) do anything.
- Russian ruble value has fallen off a cliff after Trump’s tweet this morning.
- Russia has recalled its ambassador to Israel.
- Indications that Syrian air and ground units continue airports and bases in anticipation of attacks
I’m am not convinced the assets necessary for a strike are fully in place yet. Mattis is not one to go off half cocked and not fully ready. Given the lack of naval assets any attack at this stage will likely be manned aircraft with perhaps bombers firing cruse missiles. Very risky operation given the Russian threat to fire back. I further don’t think this will be a one time shot, but multi-day operation, with further risk.