Posted on 04/07/2022 9:42:49 AM PDT by blam
Researchers at Colorado State University are predicting a very active 2022 Atlantic season, with 19 named storms.
The average for named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 through November) is 14.4.
The initial forecast from the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project calls for nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes, classified as at least Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 111mph. Seasonal forecasts from CSU were started 39 years ago by meteorology professor William Gray, who died in 2016.
Of note, the CSU team puts a high probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. They said there is a 71% chance of a Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline. This chance is about 20 points higher than the average for the last century.
The probability of this type of storm hitting the East Coast or Gulf Coast of 47% and 46%, respectively, CSU said.
Another Active Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2022: AccuWeather
“One of the reasons for the above-average Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast from CSU is due to the likely lack of El Nino this summer/fall,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist and author of the forecast report, on Twitter. “El Nino generally increases vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes.”
Unusually warm seas temperatures currently present in the Atlantic and Caribbean are also favorable for storm formations.
There were 21 named storms in 2021, including Hurricane Ida, which made landfall as one of the strongest hurricanes ever with maximum sustained winds of 150mph. There were seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes in 2021. Seven named storms and two hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. The predetermined list of storm names have been exhausted for the last two years.
CSU issues a forecast update in June, July and August.
Another year, another forecast.
Which was again pulled out of somebody's ass.
This one should have a dash of ‘pootin’s fault’ tossed in for good measure. All those rockets and artillery causing temps to rise and stuff.
If only we had taxed ourselves trillions and trillions of dollars to combat “climate catastrophe.”
For all you people thinking of moving to or have just moved to Florida take note.
Those that are already here get a hurricane preparedness kit together if you haven’t already.
71% chance is 20% higher?
A 71% chance of at least a Cat 3 making landfall anywhere on the U.S. coast line in an entire year is what I have always known as "hurricane season."
.
Women and minorities hardest hit.
This may be the year in which the island of Florida capsizes.
(If only we had taxed ourselves trillions and trillions of dollars to combat “climate catastrophe”)
Now there’s the solution!
Can’t Greta just give the storm (when it comes) a stern look and scare it off?
Actually heard a woman say: “At least she’s doing something!”
It is the sacred principles of the U.N. to which Americans will henceforth pledge their trust.
Or something like that.
Hi.
Here’s my forecast...
If you are a Floridian, you already have a go bag and evac route ready.
If you are a Floridian, you already know a hurricane (s) will hit Florida.
If you are a Floridian, you already know that if the hurricane is between a Cat 3 and 5, you evacuate. If the hurricane is between a Cat 1 and 3, you get with friends and party.
PSA
5.56mm
So if “Climate Science” aka Climatology, which they won’t call it, is so called Settled Science, then why the 70%. If it’s settled then the predictions should be 100% accurate.
Can we see their record of forecast vs reality for the past decade?
Given the warm nature of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean among the Caribbean islands between June and November, the chances are good at least one Category 3 hurricane will make landfall in the USA this summer.
“19 Named Storms Predicted”
Remember when only actual hurricanes rated a name? Now they name every passing squall so they can say:
“We have more named storms in 2022 than we did in any year in the 20th Century!”
Propaganda. Rank propaganda.
The move to name storms below 75 miles an hour winds coincided with global warming advocates populating the weather bureaus of the country. Universities have goals! Scare the masses into submission.
Solar forcing caused by an ever weaking geomagnetic field has shifted the Bermuda-Azores high to the North and East.
See current location on Windy.com
See last years ‘predictions’ here - https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/weather/accuweather/what-is-the-bermuda-high-defined-defintion/507-b68965cb-a1a5-4ac8-8843-ee51e2273b28
Hells Bells, anyone can make predictions that loose.
you already know that running away is risky. Being stuck on I-75 as the unprepared panic and run is insufferable.
you already know the kinds of things to stock-up on in June to allow riding out the 2-4 weeks without electricity thing.
You already have hurricane shutters or high-impact windows.
Some who run away find that getting back can be very difficult. I would rather begin clearing out all the debris from my property the day after and then riding my bike to see if anyone needs help. It becomes a social event.
That’s not correct. Tropical depressions are often unnamed.
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