Posted on 11/04/2022 8:57:47 AM PDT by cotton1706
With days to go before the date of both houses of Congress and the Biden agenda are decided, national Pollster Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group took some time out of his busy schedule to field some questions about what’s likely to happen on November 8th and why.
Cahaly covers the reason for the sudden big shift in the national polls, the impact of former President Trump in the mid-terms, the odds of the GOP taking the US Senate and a number of other matters related to Tuesday’s election.
MB: A few months ago things were not looking particularly promising for the GOP in the midterms with only modest gains in the House and possibly losing seats in the US Senate projected. What led to this sudden shift in the past few weeks?
RC: I don’t accept the premise of that question. Polls have one of two purposes: they are to reflect the electorate or they are designed to effect the electorate. And I think a lot of the early polling we saw in late July through early September were designed by Democratic sympathetic media and left leaning universities to pump up the Democrats to raise money in Hollywood, Wall Street, and Silicon Valley. Those polls artificially elevated where the Democrats were and they never were really doing that well. I don’t buy that there was this late massive swing.
Those pollsters over estimated how much the public cared about the Dobbs Decision (overturning Roe v Wade) and January 6th. They completely read it wrong and they wanted to believe it. They were doing little tricks like including all registered voters instead of likely voters. And when you are polling all registered voters you are suggesting that more people who voted in 2020 will be voting in 2022.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehayride.com ...
Solid analysis—my only quibble is that I think inflation is much much more important than any other issue.
Nobody likes inflation—and even folks who don’t totally blame the Democrats for it consider them at least partially responsible.
Attempts to focus on other issues were always doomed to failure imho.
Trafalger has been very accurate the last 3-4 cycles. Correctly called Trump in 2016. Nailed the VA Governor race last year, only being off .3, and had NJ dem governor by 4 (it ended up being 3), when everyone else had the Dem winning double digits.
His final PA Senate poll has Oz by 2.2%, and Governor tighened to about 4.
Cahaly gets it. Thanks for posting.
The NJ governor’s race was blatant after midnight theft—I don’t how you poll for that.
;-)
Yeah, good, straightforward analysis.
The only flaw in Trafalgar’s analysis is the ASSUMPTION that cheating will not be massive.
RE: His final PA Senate poll has Oz by 2.2%, and Governor tighened to about 4.
PA’s officials have already warned that because of mail-in voting, it will take days, perhaps over a week to count everything. DELAYS are expected!
I would have asked Trafalgar if they took into account the 240,000 UNVERIFIED ballots that were sent out. See here:
The reality is that Republicans also have some responsibility for inflation. It was irresponsible to keep interest rates this low for this long. A lot of that was under obama, but not all of it.
If congress controlled interest rates, the dems would not let the Feds finish off the economy until after the election with these rate hikes. Low interest rates are ALWAYS good. Greenspan was and is a moron. Money is not wealth and the freer the flow of money the greater potential for growth. Taxing the flow of money is never a good thing. No matter how many economists, investment bankers, politicians, professors or analysts like to act like the smartest people in the room by saying perpetual low interest rates are bad does not make it so. You don’t tax the flow of capital in a free/capitalist society.Never!
Mail in ballots are a scam that open the door for cheating. I believe the Pennsylvania ballot will be rigged and the Fetterman will eventually be declared the winner, which will be a major scandal.
He’s one of the better ones.
Good analysis. Particularly interesting in his explaining just how the media fixes their pools by polling registered voters rather than likely voters in early election cycle because numbers skew more Dem when polling registered voters and fix it late in the game to avoid embarrassment by just not polling if they determine the Rep candidate is really leading or polling likely voters the last few days after mail in votes are in to get on the right side of the election result.
Good analysis. Particularly interesting in his explaining just how the media fixes their pools by polling registered voters rather than likely voters in early election cycle because numbers skew more Dem when polling registered voters and fix it late in the game to avoid embarrassment by just not polling if they determine the Rep candidate is really leading or polling likely voters the last few days after mail in votes are in to get on the right side of the election result.
Trafalger has Ryan over Vance by 5.
Pray they’re wrong.
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