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Kofman appears to be wrong, based on reports coming out of Russia today.

A base is being built for Wagner fighters in Belarus. The first construction includes barracks for 8,000 troops.

Things are back to normal at Wagner’s base at Molkino. Wagner is not being disarmed, they still have all the equipment they had on their “march for justice” to Moscow.

There are claims an investigation for corruption has been started against Shoigu. Perhaps there will be a decent interval and then Shoigu and Gerasimov will be replaced. If they are replaced by Wagner allies like Dyumin and Surovikin then Prigozhin will have achieved what he claimed was his aim all along, which was not a coup but merely the ousting of Shoigu and Gerasimov.

It looks like Wagner’s new role will be as a palace guard for Lukashenko in Belarus.

There are free Belarus regiments forming in Ukraine planning to liberate Belarus from the dictator Lukashenko. The Belarus military itself is unreliable and rumors are that units who were ordered to join the invasion of Ukraine refused and were willing to stand on the border but go no further.

Wagner’s role will be to defend Lukashenko from any uprising or coup attempt until he dies or is no longer needed by the Kremlin. Then the Kremlin will terminate independent government in Minsk and convert Belarus into provinces of Russia.

This is a similar role for the new base in Belarus housing Russian tactical nukes. The Russian nukes are intended to deter Poland from helping liberate Belarus and the Russian forces guarding the nukes will be available together with Wagner to defeat any forces attempting to free Belarus from Lukashenko whether from outside from the Belarus liberation regiments or inside from a coup from the Belarus army or security forces.

If Prigozhin and Wagner play a key role in ending Belarusian independence and adding the territory of Belarus to Russia, then Prigozhin will become even more popular in Russia and will be positioned as the eventual successor to Putin.