I think you're completely off base. Bush's base is solid and he's not losing what he has. Flash polls have aleady shown that.
Secondly, the average American doesn't want to be finessed. He-of-the-manicured hand is definitely a finesser. Gore "won" the first debate, too -- but the people preferred Bush. That, in a nutshell, is how this is shaking out so far.
With due respect, you are SO wrong. Finess is what kept clinton in office for 8 years. Clinton was the beginning of our now Bachelor, Fear Factor, Apprentice society who only wants to experience the superficial parts of our society.
Bush is sincere, but his uh's and duh's and repeated general talking points are no match for a kerryclinonesque smooth talking style.
Americans no longer look at substance and results, they are enamored with sweet talk and promises and style. This is a fact.
I agree. Early reports say Kerry won on "style," Bush on content. Well, this is a post-9/11 world...style doesn't cut it anymore.