I'm still thinking anyone in the top 9 which is down to Tom Danielson has the potential to take this race. Danielson is on the Garmin squad that won the Team TT and Vaughters says he can hammer. He has stayed with the bunch through the mountains so far, so who knows what he might be able to do at Grenoble if he somehow gets away tomorrow and takes a bite out of his 7 minute deficit?
#9 - Danielson is already well known in the peloton, but it just might be that the guard will be down or an attack from him might not be recognized as quick as necessary. That happening is about a 500:1 shot. But, if lightning strikes he could gain some minutes and use the TT to end up on the podium. If he is in the main group at the base of Alpe D-Huez and I'm his team director, I'm telling him to go whenever he sees an opening. There is nothing to lose and no glory in being #9.
#8 - No one is going to let Sammy Sanchez get away even though he is 5:20 back, because he is also dangerous in the TT. A dangerous side effect of Sanchez is that neither he nor Contador have any teammates with gas left in their tanks, but they are both Spaniards and will work together. The question would be whether Sanchez would chase Contador if he were to get a bit of a jump. I think that since Contador is defending a title he would be compelled to chase down Sanchez. But, Sanchez knows that.
#7 Contador has a few options still on the table. He can climb and he can time trial. I don't think he can make up 4 minutes in the TT. So, he is going to have to look for an opportunity and that is going to be very hard with Frank on his wheel everywhere he goes. In addition to being shadowed, there is a psychological impact that comes with knowing a rider who is 3:00 minutes clear of him is on his wheel saving energy and just waiting for him to move.
#6 Ivan Basso - UH-oh. This guy can climb and TT. He is a talented rider with a lot of smarts. He will be in the mix of all that transpires, both as a spoiler and as a potential podium finisher. He has a minute to the good on Contador and is only two minutes down from Evans and Frank Schleck. He is an aggressive rider; ok, frequent trouble maker and will be waiting for a chance to surprise the group. He has a wild card in Damiano Cunego, an Italian countryman who came out of no where and sits at the same time at 3:46 back.
#5 Damiano Cunego is a threat to be an upsetter in several ways. He is a top level climber who can sprint and has been working hard on his TT capabilities. Though he is a countryman and possibly an instant ally for Basso, he is a wild child. When he was just a 22 yr old kid riding for Saeco, he won the tour of Italy in which he sprinted away from his team leader Gilberto Simoni to win the 18th stage after Simoni's solo breakaway faltered. He may have matured a bit, but if he gets a chance he will hold no loyalty to anyone in this bunch.
#4 Cadell Evans may have expended a lot of his reserves today. We'll soon find out. He may be sitting in the best position of all and may also be the odds on favorite at this point. If he can ride the wheels of the Schelcks, which he proved capable of this week, he has the luxury of doing just the in order to set himself up for the TT on Saturday.
#3 Frank
#2 Andy - what do we need to know at this point? Same team, brothers, climbers and podium contenders. They will be looking to break Voekler, take revenge on Contador for last year's attack during Andy's chain drop and get a gap on Evans before the TT. If I'm their director, I'm going to have them attack and counter attack multiple times. I don't think they can gamble the podium on Evans, and Voekler both showing up weak for the TT. They probably won't mess around until Alpe-D-Huez and if they do, or if Andy gets away it will have to be an all out effort. If he were to separate himself from Basso and Contador, but end up dragging Evans with him he will stop working and the decision will be up to Cadell on whether to ride another hard day climbing or go back to the pack and wait for the race of truth.
#1 Although Cadell looks poised to take yellow from where I sit, I think Tommy is also in a great place. If he can stay with the bunch like he did today he may be able to conserve some of his reserves and use all he has on Saturday.
If a couple of riders way down in the GC go away the group will have to let them go. Wasting themselves to chance a break isn't worth it with the podium two days away. Think of this; the whole bunch could stay together for most of the day while some lower placed guys go for the stage. This could be the hardest day any of these guys have spent this year only to accomplish nothing more than not going backwards.
Whatever happens tomorrow, I'll be watching and pacing the floor tomorrow come 5:30 AM PST!!!
bay:
door 2 please. schleks to lose
voelk has swum the ocean but sadly will die on the beach
cadel...hmmm..maybe but unless he kills it in TT, no.
These last 2 days have just about killed me. I DVR’d both but couldn’t watch until after 6 pm b/c I wanted to wait and watch with my husband. You can’t imagine how hard it is to stay away from this thread, facebook, twitter, the TdF site, etc all of which are spoilers.
I was so nervous as we watched today’s stage. Epic. There’s no other way to describe it. Three HC’s in. one. day. Inconceivable.
I think the reason that Cadel and the others didn’t chase Andy when he attacked was that it was sooo far from the end of the stage. There was a long descent and valley ride + the climb up the Col de Galbier. (= brutal) I think they thought there was no way he could stay away for 60.4 km and that they would waste their energy in chasing him.
It’s interesting but Tuesday Mark Steyn was subbing for Rush and he said that the British special forces have a motto which is “He who dares, wins”. MS was discussing politics but it could not be more true for today’s stage.
Andy who dared, won.
Just when everyone (Phil and Paul) had written him off. Just when everyone was saying Contador is back! It all changed. Andy won his first stage, Contador cracked, Voekler held on to yellow in a HEROIC effort, Frank breezed in , Cadel challenged but couldn’t match, Sanchez cracked, Cunigo looked strong.
Paul said “this is a great move! It is an iconic move! It is the sort of thing that is written about in the legends of the Tour de France!”
Tomorrow is a brand new day. Wouldn’t you just love to hear what was said at the dinner tables of all the teams tonight?
I think tomorrow, the Schleck brothers hit the field with the old 1-2 again. This time perhaps Frank wins but both can attack the peloton. Frank has won Alpes D’huez before so we shall see what the tactics are.
Cadel needs to regroup and stay strong if he is going to finish high this year. Contador is going to either be desperate or resigned. My guess is desperate. Ditto Sanchez. Basso is going to hang around and look for an opportunity.
I, for one, can’t wait! I told my husband that we may just have to watch it live starting at 6! ha! Forget about work! ;-)
ps. After the stage Phil predicted the 2 Schlecks and Cadel Evans on the podium this year. IN MY DREAMS!