[vladimir998]

You wrote:

“Obviously there were folks who managed to “convert”, but the greater part of the literature on the matter suggests that Jews couldn’t convert if they wanted to until the late 1400s.”

Jews converted in droves in the 13th and 14th centuries.

“The Crown issued an edict that told them to convert, and evidence is most Jews converted to Christianity, as did Moslems. There were remarkably few people expelled.”

Half converted and half left. See Henry Kamen, Spanish Inquisition (1998) pages 29-31.

[muawiyah]

That's a rough estimation. The problem is the absence of any good censuses in the period. Plus, nobody really knew how many Jews were there.

A Russian Jewish friend of mine once spent quite a bit of time reading through Jewish genealogies and family stories in Moscow that dated back to Spain.

He was quite astounded to find out how open all of this was ~ not at all like a really oppressed minority fleeing the ovens.

BTW, I doubt any almost any sort of estimations that involve the last half the 14th Century and the first half of the 15th Century. The plague definitely tipped a lot of scales.