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Posted on 11/18/2011 7:45:00 AM PST by jhpigott
This is more about Russian counter to the possible Turkish intervention than it is about "the West".
The Caucasus/Black Sea area could surprise everyone as Russia and Turkey get their groove on.
Take out Tehran and both countries are likely to hurt themselves in their mad rush to swallow the Caucasus and "Greater Armenia".
Don't be surprised if Russia starts talking about the "rights of the long-suppressed Armenian People" as they begin to move south.
Both countries look forward to the vacuum of a fallen Iran.
>>>>>I think the author has it wrong.>>>>>
Yep. An idea if Russian policy is enabling Iran is just wrong.
Iran is now standing on the edge of the roof like a suicidal maniac and Russia does nothing but pushing it down.
The problem is Russia won’t benefit long term, let alone Turkey. It is a window of opportunity for China to get it’s way to ME. China already has a huge success in Central Asia while US and Russia clashing in zero sum games there.
KGB Putin invaded Georgia using standard communist tactics. And he did so to protect Iran.
I don’t think “the west” has any interest whatsoever in getting involved in any military activity in Syria.
According to Galrahn’s tweets, one of the Russian ships is a naval rescue ship. I think they might be concerned with protecting/extracting Russian military/civilian personel in Syria in the event of a full scale civil war. I don’t think they are worried about NATO getting involved.
Hard to predict what will happen there though, very different situation to Libya.
Hard to see how this one plays out. I think the Hezbollah-card is eroding the more Arab blood Assad sheds. Would he try to provoke an Israeli response to save his neck. An IRBM strike or Golan land grab to rally the flag.
Russian exercise with NATO in Mediterranean
The reports of a deployment of Russian Navy warships to Syria/Syrian waters appears to be sensationalist. The Smetlivy doesn't appear to have been diverted after exercising with NATO assets. The replacement for the Severomorsk for anti-piracy patrols came from the Pacific Fleet. The Severomorsk transited through Tartus, Syria on its way back during September.Any large scale movements of Russian Black Sea Fleet into the Mediterranean would be reported by Turkey and would be instant news. Turkey still has full control of the straits with naval transits monitored under treaty.
The Russians announced back in September that the aircraft carrier Kuznetsov and escorts were going to deploy to the Mediterranean from November.
Aircraft Carrier to exercise from November
The visits to the Mediterranean and Syrian waters by the carrier have been a regular occurence over the past couple of years. So far there have been no further reports of this planned winter deployment.
I think that too many people have taken the reports as fact without actually studying the situation? Unless the Frigate Smetlivy has been diverted from its passage back home then there are no Russian major assets currently in the Mediterranean. A sizeable deployment of the Black Sea Fleet would be instant news via Turkey.
What to do if we want to get rid of the Assad regime, but not want it to be replaced by a Saudi proxy based on wahhabism?
It is too late for a Bashar-Lite regime in Syria.
"In Tartus now there aren't any our ships. There is only our floating workshop and storage platform. A month ago also there came the Black Sea Fleet patrol ship "Smetlivy", but she has already returned to Sevastopol."
Russian Admiral reveals Russian Navy status currently in Mediterranean
The Smetlivy was exercising with NATO assets along with the rescue ship Epron. The Smetlivy was at the time the only Russian warship in the Mediterranean. Admiral Selivanov revealed that she has already returned to Sevastapol in the Black Sea. The whole story was bogus from the start!
Now a whole new bogus story has been generated around the Russian aircraft carrier Battle Group. News agencies in the Med are reporting it currently off Malta! The Kuznetsov is still located with the Northern Fleet in the Barents.
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