I have thought about it. In 1976, for instance, one of the Muscle/luxury cars was the Olds Toronado which got a whopping 4 MPG in town. Otherwise, 16-17 MPG was considered good, in fact real good, and twenty miles to a gallon was reserved for little critters like Fiat 600s and Volkswagons, and on this side of the pond, the Vega and the Pinto. (I drove or rode in all 4 of those.) Now, though, after CAFE standards and revisions, and computerizing automobiles to the point where few shadetree mechanics can do much with them, 20 MPG is more the norm for a sedan, the new classes (compared to 1976) of Minivans and SUVs generally do as well or better than full sized cars used to (15-20 MPG), and a significant portion of the vehicle market has shifted to diesel (more on that in a minute).
So more vehicles are getting farther on less fuel.
Keep in mind, it isn't just the number of cars, but the miles they are being driven, and the Obama economy has an effect with far fewer people commuting to work.
In addition, those driving on diesel, are driving on a fuel more easily produced (before additives) than gasoline: diesel is a distillate, and a functional diesel fuel can be cooked out of crude oil with only a topping facility. There was a plan to build one of those in Western ND, send the light fraction of the crude one way (napthalenes), the heavy fraction in another direction, both as refinery and/or chemical plant feedstocks, and use the diesel locally. So diesel takes a fraction of the refinery plumbing and processes that gasoline does, fewer blends are needed, and less infrastructure. More diesel vehicles (especially light vehicles which get good mileage) means less gasoline to produce, too.
Another factor is that as much as 10% of the gasoline out there isn't gasoline, but ethanol, which is blended fairly close to point of sale because of its hygroscopic (water absorbing) nature, corrosion problems it would create in pipelines, etc.
Existing refineries have been expanded, which makes more sense than building separate new facilities as existing transportation hubs and infrastructure already go there. The bottleneck comes when there isn't enough capacity in the system as new sources of supply are found, which is why the Keystone pipeline was important, not only for Canadian producers, but for American ones, too, who would have been able t take advantage of some of the excess capacity.
Oh and do not tell me we need Mass transit, it will never work in America.
Don't worry, I live in North Dakota. There are places along coastal urban corridors where it might provide a means to move some of the population, house homeless, and nurture criminal activity, but not here. We do have Amtrack going through, but you can't get there from here, and require connecting changeovers to go someplace. I won't do the TSA grope thingy, and the nearest bus station is in another state. Fuhgeddaboutit.
We drive.
One thing you left out, though, is that pump prices have to support the refits refineries have had to undergo to remain compliant with ongoing moving-target EPA regulations. People who support those regulations and then complain that gas is "expensive" shot themselves in the foot. Unfortunately, we all have to suffer a bit for that.
Quick recap: Prices are the result of many factors, among them:
Multiple blends tailored toward specific areas.
Drilling costs on the rise which is reflected in refinery bid, and if it isn't, drilling will slow down and eventually stop (which will cause the price to go back up as supply drops).
Moving target regulatory standards imposed by the EPA.
Ethanol blending, and ethanol prices.
Transportation costs (the trucks and trains have to buy fuel, too).
Does anyone have information concerning the correlation between pump prices and refinery petroleum production vs the correlation between pump prices and oil production?
Thackney probably does, if anyone has those handy.
Seems to me the lack of refineries is actually a bigger problem than the lack of oil production. Am I wrong?
Believe it or not, we are exporting some refined products. Prices are set by bid in that market, too, like any of the other traded commodities. They then go down the wholesaler to retailer chain, and the retailer only makes enough from a load of gasoline to buy the next one, plus a very small profit. If it wasn't for the convenience store, or in (nowadays, more rarely) the service bays and towing, a lot of them would not be able to make it on just fuel sales.
Thanks, you both have done an admirable job of educating me on this sector.
I have a brother-in-law who is in ND working in the field right now. He runs the computer system that controls the fracking drill. He is a huge supporter of natural gas. I talk to him from time to time, and I have learned a lot about the way fracking works.
I don’t get much time to talk to him, because when he does get a chance to call he and my wife (his sister) will talk for an hour about family matters, but when I get a chance to talk to him I pump him for as much information as he can offer from his vantage point in the industry.
He has been in the field so much that he rarely has time to contact us. He was asked to move to ND, but he would rather stay in Wyoming and travel as needed. In his zeal to make as much as he can to hedge against future slowdowns that inevitably always happen, he hasn’t taken any vacation time in over two years. He will take someones shift in a heartbeat, so the overtime pay he makes is very good.
It helps that he’s a bachelor, so all his money he is raking in, he has been averaging well over $100.000 the last two years, belongs to him and him alone. It has enabled him to almost paid off the spread and home he purchased in Wyoming back a few years ago.
Well thanks again you two. I now know more than I did before, and that is always a good thing.