Posted on 10/17/2012 8:44:43 AM PDT by beebuster2000
I dont get it. Intrade saying Obama a prohibitive favorite. not even close. why?
Americans cannot legally use it. I’ve noticed that it more or less tracks Nate Silvers’ prediction percentages.
Bottom line is who cares.. They had Kerry at 90% on Election Day 2004.
What is “a prohibitive favorite”?
It was not struck down as unconstitutional. It was upheld as constitutional. The Court said congress did not have authority under the commerce clause to force people to buy insurance, but did have the power under the taxing clause to impose a penalty upon them for failure to do so.
Anyway, the purpose of my post was not to argue the merits of the Obamacare decision, but to illustrate as others have said that Intrade is not a good indicator of outcomes.
Your picking nits.
A Lefty is delusional and dumped a lot of cash into a bet.
If I put a billion dollars on the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the Super Bowl, they will be the odds on favorite in Vegas. Its that simple. Its all about money in the pot, that’s it.
But people still think he knows something. He basically correctly predicted Obama would win in 2008, in the easiest Presidential race to handicap since 1984, and somehow people think this makes him a genius.
But his model went UP on the same day that the Gallup poll showed Romney breaking 50% for the first time. A little secret sauce.
any consortium that can juice the Fed printing presses, rig an entire stock and energy market, at least try to tap the SPR to keep gas under $4 a gallon for another month, ask the Europeans to postpone a crash until after November, secretly conspire to open our borders by executive order, seize our wealth, cut MEDICARE by $700 BILLOON dollars an blame it on Paul Ryan, promise to pay off defense employers to break laws about layoff notices, and plan to unilaterally nuclear disarm the USA... all to further obamas chances of reelection....can rig an outfit like intrade
remember, for a fraud election to look plausible, it has to look like obama was going to win
This is a bookie operation
The stats go where the money it
It is easy to change this and people stupid enough to vote for Obama are also stupid enough to bet money on Intrade.
I think you could make a bundle this time
ya think?
Intrade is garbage illegal offshore betting pool used by
Foreigners and crooks .
It is illegal in the US.
It is Not legally bound to any rules and thus a
Shady Scam run out of Ireland to avoid
Any laws !
Do not even bother to look at it !
It means nothing !
Who are the gamblers? Dems?
If you follow WS do you really need an explanation?
Where in the world did so many people on this thread get the idea that it is illegal for Americans to use Intrade?? That’s entirely false. The majority of their customers are in the U.S. and they deal solely in American dollars. I use Intrade sometimes (and I lost a lot of money in 2008 too by the way by being foolishly optimistic). They do make Americans go through special hoops in order to comply with the law, but it’s fine for people in the U.S. to use if they submit the right documents and pay by check or bank transfer only.
That being said, there is nothing scientific about Intrade whatsoever, and I’ve noticed that they do typically tend to stray a little excessively and unjustifiably to the left. I wouldn’t worry about Intrade percentages at all. It means less than the +9% Dem skewed polls out there.
Nate Silver is another scam !
A former employee of the nutter website
Daily Koz is a far left wacko and nasty piece of work .
He and Axelrod have been attacking any pollster that does not follow their orders to use the 2008 turn out models !
He is an Obama scammer !
It’s called off shore betting and the IRS will be at your door pronto once they track you and now they do !
Isn’t Intrade based on European bettors? I want to know what the odds are in Las Vegas.
How so? He was saying Intrade was a bad indicator and giving a horrible analogy as to why.
what’s the over?
Very easily manupulated - and much cheaper than TV ads. Especially when one doesn’t have a record to stand on - they will use whatever they can to influence voters.
So why doesn’t the Romney camp play? Because that would start a bidding war where nobody wins except Intrade. And because they actually have a plan and a platform to run on. Look for the numbers to change a few days before the election.
Bottom line, as many have pointed out, is that it’s inconsequential.
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