Posted on 08/18/2013 10:38:44 AM PDT by ckilmer
Last quarter, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA ) delivered 5,150 cars, which was well above its expectations of 4,500 deliveries. The company did so by boosting its production rate by 25% to 500 per week. If everything goes according to plan, the company's deliveries for its award-winning Model S could reach an annualized rate of 40,000 by the end next year, which is nearly double this year's expected rate. That's simply stunning growth. However, it's only the tip of the iceberg for where this company plans to be in the future.
The company has a very long road ahead of it to reach its goal to produce 500,000 vehicles annually, which is the rate CEO Elon Musk believes it can eventually reach. To get there, the company needs to capture lightning in a bottle again and produce a car that can be a mass-market success. That will happen only if consumers can drive a car off the lot in the $35,000 range -- something Tesla believes will be possible in as little as four years. While that's a bold dream, if Tesla has taught us anything, it's that it's OK to dream. So let's dream together of a world were Tesla can sell half a million cars each year.
No more pain at the pump? Americans as a whole are driving less, but we still drive a lot. Last year alone, the average American drove 9,363 miles, which is 7.5% down from the peak in 2004. While there's no telling how much we'll be driving by the time Tesla takes 500,000 gas-guzzlers off the road, we could conservatively assume that each one of those cars would have driven 10,000 miles per year. Even with using 2025 CAFE standards of 54.5 MPG as the average gas mileage of the cars being taken off the road, that's 183.5 gallons of gas being saved per car.
Overall, that's a savings of nearly 92 million gallons of gas each year. For perspective, that's just about a quarter of the 367.08 million gallons of gas Americans use per day. Thought of another way, if gas was $4 per gallon, it would save Tesla owners a collective $367 million, or about $733.94 per year. Swapping in a more gas-guzzling car would certainly boost the savings, so just think of these numbers as ballpark figures.
In fact, let's just say that Tesla was able to replace 500,000 true gas-guzzlers and knock off one day's worth of America's annual fuel consumption, or roughly shave the demand for a million gallons of fuel per day. Let's take a look at those numbers. anImage
*Based on an average of 10,000 miles driven and $4 gasoline
How much of a pinch would that be for refiners such as Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX ) or Valero (NYSE: VLO ) ? In 2012, Phillips 66's refining and marketing segment produced $4.5 billion in earnings on $173.3 billion in revenue. Similarly, Valero's total revenue last year was $139.3 billion and its operating income was $4 billion. Clearly, the $1.47 billion in gasoline that Tesla could save each year won't put either out of business.
Oh, by the way Further, while taking a million gallons of gasoline per day out of the equation would still have some impact, odds are it would find somewhere else to disappear. In fact, just last quarter, Phillips 66 highlighted that it had increased its refined product exports to 181,000 barrels per day, or more than 760,000 gallons. By the end of this year it should have the capacity to export 370,000 barrels of refined product per day, or more than 1.5 million gallons. That additional capacity means Phillips 66 alone could easily export the amount of gasoline per day that 500,000 Teslas would save.
In fact, the U.S. has now become a net exporter of refined petroleum products because of lower U.S. demand and our competitive advantage in the marketplace. This situation is putting U.S. refiners with a strong Gulf Coast presence like Valero in a key competitive position to take advantage of future demand outside the United States. Tesla might actually be doing these companies a favor, as refined petroleum product exports are more valuable than those sold in the domestic marketplace.
Final Foolish thoughts Tesla's bold goal to sell 500,000 cars per year is a great dream, but it won't put gasoline refiners out of business anytime soon. Instead, these companies will simply have more gasoline available for the export market, which is a real positive for our economy. That's not to say half a million Teslas won't affect the energy markets, so tune in next week for a look at how that many Teslas could affect the electricity marketplace.
The only problem as far as investors are concerned is that Tesla is currently priced almost as richly as its Model S. That means investors looking to profit from the revolution in the energy markets need to look elsewhere
I am just thrilled that we finally have an automobile that is Amerinca made and a lot better than what they German, Japanese or the union shops can produced.
Today they are eating their competation alive with their currently limited production.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/13/autos/tesla-sales-bmw-mercedes-audi/index.html
I can agree with that. I just wish they had done it without government help. And it'll be a long, long time before I get another car with a $10,000 balloon payment when the battery dies in the AZ desert heat.
They took a loan from government, which should not even exist
Sorry it is not. The credit is essentially a discount, implemented as a rebate. The difference is, the taxpayers are paying for the rebate.
Do you think anyone considers an electric car without considering the tax credit?
Even Tesla admits as much, as someone else posted from their web site:
"At the base price of $62,400, including the $7,500 Federal Tax Credit"
That $62,400 price less the credit is the market price of the vehicle. That is the price Tesla's marketing and business folks came up with that would maximize gross profit of the vehicles. But for every vehicle they sell at an effective price of $62,400, they take in $69,900 from the buyer, and the buyer gets a refund from the taxpayer of $7,500. If the tax credit did not exist, Tesla would have to lower their price.
"Are you against lower taxes?"
This is not "lower taxes". Lower income taxes are contingent on lowering the taxes on the same income for anyone making the same money, either through a lower rate or a deduction or credit available to anyone making the same amount of income.
This is laundering taxpayer money to a man in return for contributing triple digit dollars to Obama.
As for paying back the loan, why didn't Musk go to a bank or a VC or a PE fund? The taxpayers are not a bank or a private equity fund, nor should they be.
Loaning money to for someone to make very expensive vanity cars is nuts. Teslas are not vehicles ordinary people can consider. People buy Teslas instead of Jaguars, BMW 7-Series, or Range Rovers.
Government subsidizing any goods can be debated. Subsidizing luxury goods is insane.
If Teslas were so great, they would not need any subsidy.
Jay Leno says he loves his electric but calls it a rich man’s toy. He said he drives it 30 miles to the studio and plugs it in for 12 hours and drives it home to plug it in again.
He called it an outlet to outlet racer.
“How will the government make up for the expected loss of gasoline tax revenue?”
Well, you know that little black box that your insurance company has become so interested in lately? Your government has its eye on it too. What’s going to happen is; in the not so distant future we will pay road tax based upon miles driven. And there will be all sorts of variable in the formula such as weight, axles, design. Oh, almost forgot; if you should be poor, transgender, or some sort of disadvantaged person you will be given a tax credit and thereby probably make money if you drive enough miles. Conversely, if you are one of those who work hard and have a little success you will be taxed so that you “pay your fair share”. Opp’s, almost forgo, union members and government employees of course will be exempted from this tax. So, there you have it, our road tax future - dont you just love it....
As I stated earlier, they are selling below demand and they did increase their price recently. The tax credit exists for all auto companies, not just Tesla and will phase out after 200,00 cars. I do not see this as an unusual favor for one company.
This is laundering taxpayer money to a man in return for contributing triple digit dollars to Obama.
This tax credit is open for all auto manufactures. So I do not see why you think that it only favors Tesla?
As for paying back the loan, why didn't Musk go to a bank or a VC or a PE fund?
Well, the tax payer decided to be the bank during the liquidity crisis of 2008. It was available to all car makers. If Tesla did not borrow from the lowest cost of capital source during that period, then it would be bad business decision, just like you optimize your tax at the end of the year, weather you agree with a favorable tax break or not.
You maybe right that the loan should not exist. But once it is made available to everyone, it would be bad to not use it.
As soon as the government lives within its means. Any day now.
Yes - It will be available in 10 to 15 years. Hopefully you are not expecting a new car company to produce a 10 - 15 year old car.
Being able to track millions of citizens as they go about their business is a wet dream for Big Brother Obama. This just gets their foot in the door. They will eventually expand this to put a tracking device in EVERY car.
100% correct. A point I've made a few times on this thread. The Tesla has not taken/will never take a single "gas-guzzler off the road." Not one, because people who drive the low-fuel efficient vehicles are not the same people who buy Jags & Beemers. Yet, that's what the story is boasting. We've gotten dragged off onto a tangent about cost effectiveness, which is arguable. Someone who buys a $75k auto is not likely to care about a $12,000 battery in 10 years.
I do care. I have a $35k vehicle that's going to cost >$10k when the battery dies out of warranty. It bugs me when somebody calls that balloon payment "minimal maintenance costs."
They are pretty cars
But
I never liked the band
............
I heard Tesla himself was a genius. Great inventor but not such a good business man.
They are pretty cars
But
I never liked the band
............
I heard Tesla himself was a genius. Great inventor but not such a good business man.
Wow, now that is one seriously desperate strawman.
Come back when you’ve got a better script.
Right. Like welfare, it would be bad not to use what is available.
If I had the money for a car, and I don’t, I don’t think Tesla would even cross my mind to tell the truth.
No, and who cares? Tesla is not after that segment of the auto market. They are out to make a profit. They want to capture a significant portion of the high performance, luxury market and ultimately a significant share the middle range of market (30 to 40K). I think it would be a great story if they are successful. Why root against an American Car Company??
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.