If Saddam was still the ruling dictator in Iraq, Mubarak does not get overthrown. Dictators in Libya (Gaddafi) and Syria (Bashar Assad) would also keep their power. These dictators have proven records of keeping Jihadi’s in check for decades. Which means Al Qaeda and the Jihadi’s have no foot hold in the middle-east oil rich countries.
Saddam was the first domino. Saddam was never a Jihadi.
Your history is flawed here.
Saddam was actively supporting and driving world terror and Gaddafi was doing the same and he also was very close to building a nuclear bomb.
One could say the Shah of Iran was the first domino.