A massive reduction? Let's examine the numbers, shall we?
The double pedestrian fencing in the San Diego sector was complete in 2005. So let's look directly at the Border Patrol apprehension data from 2005 to 2012, when the current surge began due to Obama's announcement of no deportation for minors.
| Year | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Bend | 10,536 | 7,520 | 5,536 | 5,391 | 6,360 | 5,288 | 4,036 | 3,964 |
| Del Rio | 68,506 | 42,636 | 22,920 | 20,761 | 17,082 | 14,694 | 16,144 | 21,720 |
| El Centro | 55,722 | 61,465 | 55,883 | 40,961 | 33,521 | 32,562 | 30,191 | 23,916 |
| El Paso | 122,679 | 122,256 | 75,464 | 30,312 | 14,999 | 12,251 | 10,345 | 9,678 |
| Laredo | 75,346 | 74,840 | 56,714 | 43,658 | 40,569 | 35,287 | 36,053 | 44,872 |
| Rio Grande Valley | 134,136 | 110,528 | 73,430 | 75,473 | 60,989 | 59,766 | 59,243 | 97,762 |
| San Diego | 126,904 | 142,104 | 152,460 | 162,390 | 118,721 | 68,565 | 42,447 | 28,461 |
| Tucson | 439,079 | 392,074 | 378,239 | 317,696 | 241,673 | 212,202 | 123,285 | 120,000 |
| Yuma | 138,438 | 118,549 | 37,992 | 8,363 | 6,951 | 7,116 | 5,833 | 6,500 |
As you can see, San Diego's apprehensions went up not down from 2005 to 2009. Nearly every other sector's apprehensions, the ones without double fencing or any fencing at all, went down.
From 2009 to 2011, San Diego's apprehensions went down significantly. So did nearly every other sector's apprehensions. Remember, those sectors don't have double fencing. Some have no fencing. So the double fence in San Diego had been there for four years. Did the fence suddenly become a substantial deterrent?
What happened in 2009 that caused such a drop in apprehensions, not just in San Diego, but all across the southern border? Well, from 2005 to 2009, we increased the number of Border Patrol agents from 11, 264 to 20,119, of whom 17,399 are deployed to the southern border. And we increased technological detection and enforcement capabilities, such as cameras, radar, sensors, and towers. (i.e. your dreaded "smart fencing")
Then, in 2012, apprehensions jumped all across the southern border when Obama announced he wouldn't bother with deporting minors.
In short, Norm, the attribution of apprehension reductions in San Diego to the double pedestrian fencing is a myth.
By the way, Rick Perry is not the only one who supports strategic fencing. Here's what The Heritage Foundation has to say about border fencing:
In some areas, erecting fences is the best way to tackle the illegal-entry problem. But the cost makes it important to use fencing only in areas with a low "melting point." The melting point is the time it takes for an individual to cross the border and "melt" into a landscape unnoticed. In urban border communities, spending money on physical barriers makes sense because individuals can easily cross the border and sneak quickly into the urban landscape (for example, one can hide in a building or steal a car and drive away). But in other areas, like the middle of the desert, the barren landscape makes it easy for Border Patrol agents to detect border crossers.
You’ve previously cited an April 2006 NPR article that quoted then Assistant Chief of Border Patrol, San Diego sector Jim Henry as saying that “apprehensions here are down 95 percent, from 100,000 a year to 5,000 a year, largely because the single strand of cable marking the border was replaced by double — and in some places, triple — fencing.”
But as you can see from the BP apprehension data in the table I posted up-thread, Mr. Henry’s figures are just not true. There were 142,104 apprehensions in the San Diego sector in 2006, the year he was quoted. He was off by about 135,000 from the 5000 he claimed. There were 18,361 apprehensions in the SD sector in the month of March 2006 alone and 14,736 in April.
Here’s an excerpt from an August 2014 NPR article:
“Fencing is not the end all, be all,” says the Border Patrol’s Robert Duff. “I started my career in San Diego and saw them construct the initial fence, and then two and three layers of fencing. They’ll go over it, they’ll go under it, they’ll go through it. A fence does not seal the border. It helps, but it’s not the solution.”
Just as important, Duff says, are agents on the ground, aircraft, boats, lights, cameras and other tactical equipment.
Perhaps expectations were too high. Perhaps people thought the wall was supposed to stop illegal traffic.
“They built an 18-foot wall, and people came with a 19-foot ladder and people just crossed right over the top. So I think a fence can only be so tall,” says Chris Cabrera, local spokesman for the National Border Patrol Council, the agents’ union.
You’ve been given factual apprehension and staffing numbers directly from Border Patrol. What will you do with them? Note that I did not attack your character or question your motivations while I refuted your claims.
“In short, Norm, the attribution of apprehension reductions in San Diego to the double pedestrian fencing is a myth.”
Except the guy in charge of the fence said in numerous articles reported by media and blogs alike that isn’t a myth and is in fact highly effective. And he provided official numbers not taken from LaRaza supporting sites. All of which are searchable and available at a mouse click. And were shown to you some time ago.
So should America believe him and the actual Border Patrol agents that supported his statements or someone claiming he spreads myth? I think that also addresses the cred thing. If you want to continue denying reality and spreading misinformation, I can only hope people search the facts themselves and draw their own conclusions.