The Death Of A Nation: Japanese Births Drop To Lowest Ever, Deaths Hit All Time High

Zero Hedge ^ | 01/03/2015 | Tyler Durden

[SeekAndFind]

Supporters and opponents of Abenomics may debate the metaphorical death of Japanese society as a result of the terminal hyper-Keynesian, hyper-monetarist policies implemented by Abe and Kuroda for the past 2 years until they are blue in the face, but when it comes to the literal death of Japan, there is no debate: as the FT succinctly puts it "deaths outnumbered births in Japan last year by the widest margin on
record, underscoring the scale of the challenge facing the government as
it tries to ensure a dwindling pool of workers can support growing
ranks of pensioners."

Indeed, while Japan may or may not surive the collapse in the Yen, which will send the Nikkei225 soaring although nobody will be able to enjoy this unprecedented paper wealth because nobody can afford to eat, drive or heat their house, and all Japanese companies will be long bankrupt, it now looks almost certain that the death of Japanese society will not be due to a runaway printer, but due to, well, death itself.

As the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare reported earlier this week, while Japan recorded 1.001 million births in 2014, or the lowest number in recorded history, this was offset by 1.27 million deaths: also the highest on record.

It's only downhill from here. More from the FT:

[T]he broader demographic problems remain. Last weekend, as the government fulfilled an election pledge to present an extra spending package, it outlined plans to arrest population falls outside the major cities, challenging local authorities to boost births via support to women aged 20 to 39, the group most critical to rebuilding the population.

 

If the current nationwide fertility rate of 1.4 stays unchanged, a task force warned in November, then Japan’s population of 127m would drop by almost a third by 2060 and by two-thirds by 2110.

 

Even if the fertility rate were to rapidly rise to the replacement level of 2.07 by 2030 and then stay there, the population would keep falling for another 50 years before stabilising at a little less than 100m.

 

Relaxing the nation’s relatively strict controls on immigration could provide some relief, but Mr Abe has made it clear that he is “flatly opposed to opening the door”, said Masatoshi Kikuchi, a strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

Not surprisingly, the finance ministry declined to comment on the reported figures, ahead of the release of the draft budget around the middle of January.

Because what is there to comment? The data says it all.

 

And whatever you do, don't use the Birinyni extrapolation ruler here.

Source

[Chickensoup]

It will take some very illiberal policies to reverse Japan’s fertility rate.

______________

What are you thinking? I don’t see many options/

[Hawthorn]

>> highly interventionist Fed monetary policy <<

That’s not the same as monetarism. You might want to brush up on your Friedman reading.

[Reaganez]

Abortion is technically illegal in Japan but with exceptions so broad it is widely practiced and accepted today. So start with banning abortions in practice.

Losing medical license for doctors all the way up to death penalty.

Re-impregnating women in the lab who have had abortions.Make getting an abortion pointless.

Banning birth control. Better to have children unwanted by their mother than no children at all.

Using the tax code to punitively tax the childless. You can’t lead a luxurious lifestyle INSTEAD of having and spending money on children.

Promotions at work only for those with 2 children or more. In other words, promotions only for patriots.

Reversing the Japanese fertility rate will require policies that will make Western governments go apeS%!t.

There are only two options for Japanese policymakers to reverse dramatic population declines: increase the birthrate or dramatically increase immigrations. 97%+ of Japanese are adamantly against large scale immigration.

They have largely run out of carrots to increase the birthrate. Free healthcare for kids,free childcare, child tax credits and ~$5k grant for baby supplies. The only unused tools in the arsenal are sticks.

Nothing is guaranteed to success. A wholesale societal revolt could happen. A society hellbent on committing suicide can’t be stopped.

[Chickensoup]

Of course they could always dump the burden of the elderly by making death of elderly patriotic

[Reaganez]

That solves half the problem.

A steady population of 60M could be just fine with a 2.03 fertility rate. The Japanese could be happy being an irrelevant outpost in the suburbs of Beijing kowtowing to the Han Emperor.

A population of 60M with a 1.4 fertility rate on a downward spiral is still a march to Japan’s suicide. A better lifestyle on the way to suicide without having to pay all that elderly care for sure.

[Chickensoup]

You don’t think the population would turn around if they young ones wouldn’t have the elderly to support?

[Ronaldus Magnus]

Population growth = economic growth is an eventual failed policy.

Really? History says the opposite is true. There can be no sustained economic growth without population growth, and population growth in free market democracies during peacetime has always resulted in economic growth in the long-term. There is nothing more valuable than people.

[Reaganez]

Not in a significant way.

It falls mostly to the middle aged,out of their prime kid making years, to take care of the elderly that can’t care for themselves.

The problem in Japan is that too many young people in their prime don’t want children. No matter their personal circumstances. Too many Japanese in their 20’s and early 30’s want to spend their time and money on travel,luxury goods,high end restaurants,concerts and electronic gadgets. Or living in some sub-culture rather than raising families.

Too many Japanese in the 20-35 age bracket, not unlike their Western counterparts, want to live in an extended adolescence but with more cash.The real problem does not seem to be time or money but rather the desire to have children and live in a family unit with adult responsibilities.

[MCH]

Population growth = economic growth is an eventual failed policy.

Really? History says the opposite is true. There can be no sustained economic growth without population growth, and population growth in free market democracies during peacetime has always resulted in economic growth in the long-term. There is nothing more valuable than people.

Yes, really. Note the qualifier "eventual." History is of no use here, since at no time in world history has the world population been 7 billion people. At what point does economic growth stop because there are just too many? 30 billion? 2 trillion? 50 trillion people?

My point is, earth's human population cannot grow indefinitely, unless we figure out how to colonize other planets or something. At some point we'll either run out of food, or run out of room. Thus, eventually the never ending growth strategy to maintain economic health HAS to come to an end based on pure logic. Granted not in our lifetime, but it's an inevitability at some point as long as we're earthbound.

[Jack Black]

Way its going—they will become a part of the Chinese Han Empire in the future—as they were in the past.

I don't believe Japan was ever a part of China. The Japanese empire did pay tribue to China, and many Japanese leaders sought to import aspects of China's culture, including the Buddhist religion and the Chinese system of writing. But that's short of being part of the Han Empire.

Perhaps I have missed something, I studied both the History of China and the History of Japan in college, but that was more than 30 years ago.

[Jack Black]

It's a trend in advanced societies. Woman stop wanting to have enough kids to replace themselves. Japan is the furthest along this curve, but most of Europe is in the same boat. Japan is unique in not wanting to import immigrants.

Pat Buchanan's "Death of the West" dealt with the implications, as did Mark Steyn's "America Alone".