Posted on 04/13/2015 1:37:36 PM PDT by Citizen Zed
GRANTS PASS, Ore. (AP) - About 5,500 more people could survive a major tsunami hitting the Pacific Northwest if they just walk a little faster to higher ground after roads are knocked out, a new study shows.
The report published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences looked at 73 communities along 700 miles of coastline in Oregon, Washington and Northern California. The area is considered most at risk from the next major earthquake and tsunami in the Cascadia Subduction Zone, where two plates of the Earth's crust come together miles off the coast.
Emergency preparedness experts generally agree that after the quake and tsunami, most roads will be too damaged for driving, so people will have to walk to safety.
Geographers estimated 21,562 residents would not make it to safety if they walk slowly - at about 2.5 mph. But if they walk faster, at about 3.5 mph, the death toll drops to 15,970. About 70 percent of them would be in Washington, nearly 30 percent in Oregon and only 4 percent in California.
The study said people working or staying at motels in the tsunami area also will be at risk, but it didn't say how many. It also noted where communities have dependent-care facilities, where residents might have trouble walking.
Lead author Nathan Wood, a geographer for the U.S. Geological Survey in Portland, Oregon, said the findings show tsunami risks are a public health issue as well as an emergency preparedness issue. Promoting healthy lifestyles that help people walk faster would save lives.
Wood added the study provides the most detailed look yet at tsunami risks, and should help in planning evacuation strategies and educating the public.
(Excerpt) Read more at whdh.com ...
If I get on the highway to evacuate in the time of impending doom, I'll be sure to drive no faster than 55MPH. After all, our gubmint told us that 55 saves lives.
Learn to fly. It would’ve saved lived on 9/11 and in the threat of earthquakes and tidal waves.
If you are a surfer looking for a killer wave, swim into it.
Duck and cover works, just as walking fast, or walking up hill at all works in this tsunami scenario, it will save many lives, but of course it won’t save those that it doesn’t, meaning those doomed in the 100% kill zone.
Duck and cover is not to save someone from being vaporized but to save the many from what happens if they stand there exposed. Many Japanese would have survived, and many would have avoided blindness and terrible injuries, if they had been trained to duck and cover.
Right, and they should factor in whether some of the people can actually CARRY some of the other people, what percentage of them will have on the appropriate shoes at the time the tsunami hits, whether bathroom breaks on their way to high ground will result in more victims, and an analysis of the education demographics for those who will survive and escape the tsunami vs those who will be victims.
The government will soon justify telling you where you may live because of perceived risks you pose to the safety of society.
“I recall videos of Japan’s tsunami where people were just strolling up the hill, then got washed away.”
And trying to carry a bunch of stuff too. As far as a “study”, I imagine that the study included where people lived, critical roads and bridges that need to be repaired/reinforced, etc. The “walking faster” was one little piece of the puzzle.
The hard part is keeping all of this stuff fresh in people’s minds. After the large EQ near Seattle in 2001 everyone afterwards was getting prepared, etc. If the large quake happened today, I would imagine it would take several moments for people to feel the shaking, recover, then look around at their damaged stuff and lamenting that mom’s antique figurine fell over and broke. “Well, it could have been worse....”
Talk about grabbing stuff, I had a pack near both the front door and the back door with stuff in it to grab and run if need be.
They are both buried in the garage somewhere now. With 15 year-old water bottles and energy bars. The “emergency” supplies in the cars got eaten years ago by the kids.
That’s gonna stain the heck out of the carpet right there.
The evidence that duck and cover would work in the WWII era is that some survivors were partially shielded and partially burned.
Up a hill in a tsunami works, up stairs or up a tree doesn’t work so well (even though it’s higher ground) when the wave hits if the tree or building do not survive (or the water in the building reaches the ceiling or the wave force knocks shelves down, knocks a person into a wall, etc.).
Ultimately when fleeing, you can only move as fast as those in front of you (and some do not have a good survival instinct) or if you can manage to get around them, somewhat faster but nowhere near “full speed”.
Common sense tells you to duck and cover rather than stand at the window looking at the blast and burning and getting blinded, and catching glass and 2X4s in your teeth, and it tells you to move to higher ground in a tsunami.
You are really over dramatizing everything and you even have people blocking you running from something and not being able to run “full speed”.
You don’t need to work so hard at whatever you are working at.
See 52
I’ve done it on several occasions on Oahu. With the lead times given several hours in advance you don’t even have to hurry. You can walk pretty leisurely to get to higher ground. Probably 30 minutes to get out of danger at a leisurely pace. Even if you’re out of shape, and with the advance warnings available, even an hour to get to higher ground is doable.
If you’re in your car, no chance. The traffic jams arrive early.
When the big wave hits, just jump up. Problem solved.
I got trapped in a 22 hour hellride going from Houston to Austin on 290 during the Hurricane Rita evacuation.
Don’t tell me about overdramatizing. That was a dry run for the horrible reality of what a critical sh!t hits the fan scenario is going to be like.
Police were absent (except to keep citizens from entering or buying gasoline in their own secured towns).
Don’t speak of doomsday scenarios you haven’t witnessed firsthand.
True, if you have no advance warning you probably can’t outrun a tsunami. But with today’s early warning systems you have several hours to get moving. I think the problem is that people don’t take the warnings seriously.
I guess you are screwed if use a walker......
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