Good question. There's no way to tell. There really are not that many on eBay (under 1500) . . . and the scalping Chinese smugglers that tried to hit Apple on the release of the iPhone 6 is obviated by the fact that Apple opened pre-orders on the Apple Watch in China on the same day. . . so there's no arbitrage to be made in smuggling Apple Watches into China, either. There might be some in countries where Apple did not offer it yet, but they are not rich markets like China.