Posted on 01/26/2016 8:19:43 PM PST by ground_fog
Donald Trump says he won’t appear at the upcoming debate on FOX if Megyn Kelly is a moderator, and as of this writing, it appears she will be. Some of you asked me how this move by Trump could possibly be a smart thing.
On the 2D playing field, Trump appears petulant and whiney. Maybe narcissistic, fascist, and a little bit of Hitler too. And as FOX cleverly pointed out, negotiating with foreign leaders won’t be easier than Megyn Kelly’s questions.
So Trump loses badly in the second dimension.
Let’s shift to the third dimension and see if the view is different. For starters, tell me what you learned about all the other candidates today.
Nothing?
Trump sucked the oxygen out of the room. Again. And the issue – as always – is something we can jabber about forever. It is jabber-ready by design, so the media and the public will have no time and no brain cycles left to consider his competition.
Admit it – you already think the competition on the Republican side has narrowed to Trump versus Trump. If he stumbles, he loses. If he doesn’t, he wins. But the other candidates and all of their money will not change anything. The presidency is 100% in Trump’s hands to win or lose.
And he hasn’t stumbled (in the 3rd dimension of persuasion) in six months of continuous media attention.
Now keep in mind that one of Trump’s signature moves involves creating situations in which he has two or more paths to win, and no paths to lose. He wins AT THE START by picking his battles.
For example, when Trump warned Iran to return the American prisoners, he won no matter what happened. If Iran released the prisoners, Trump would say he influenced it. They did, and he did. If Iran had delayed, Trump would have used it as yet another reason you need a tough guy to deal with them. He had two paths to winning and no path to losing.
And it is intentional. I have a similar (but far worse) skill set, and I would have made that play as well.
So let’s game out the FOX scenario and see how many ways he can win and how many ways he can lose.
If FOX doesn’t budge, and Trump skips the debate, he will tweet the entire mess like it is Mystery Science Theater 3000.
The next day, the news will interject his tweets with their commentary about each participant. Obviously Trump’s tweets would include his usual eyebrow-raising insults and claims, and draw all attention his way. And unlike the people in the debate, he can “twitter-interrupt†them at any point with his counter-punches and clever insults. The media will insert his tweets in just the right place to make their stories compelling.
Interestingly, FOX might have good ratings in that scenario because people would be watching the combined debate plus The Trump Twitter Show to get it all synced up in real time. And people would want to see how FOX handles the lack of Trump. Empty podium?
At about halftime of the debate you might see Trump say it is too boring to watch and sign off for the night. That gives you a data point to see if viewership drops off around then. And it probably would, no matter what he tweets, simply because the novelty of him NOT being there will wear off. Then all you have is a real debate about the real issues. No one wants that. We have better things to do.
Now suppose Trump changes his mind and decides to join the debate even while Megyn Kelly remains. One of two things can happen. Either she asks questions that sound biased, and Trump rips her and FOX News apart on live television – and his poll number go up, or she asks only softball questions and Trump appears to have won that way.
You might be thinking that the real world is messier than that, and Trump is inviting a big risk. For example, Megyn Kelly might get in a zinger. But Trump dodges those with ease. Maybe the public will start siding with a biased TV host, but that seems unlikely. The media is unpopular in general.
Or perhaps a FOX competitor will offer Trump a show of his own for two hours, at the same time, just to be dicks to FOX. Anything can happen, but all paths seem to favor Trump.
Now let’s say you are Donald Trump, the scariest Republican that any Democrat has seen in ages. What is the one best thing he can do to separate himself from the Republican machine and show that he can be a deal-maker for everyone? Answer: Punch FOX News in the mouth. Right in front of you.
Democrats are watching. Trump is framing himself as an enemy of their enemy. (Democrats hate FOX News.)
Trump’s setup here is pure genius. He doesn’t know how it will end, but he is making sure he goes where the odds are deeply in his favor.
That’s a system, not a goal. Once you see the world that way, it makes a lot more sense. Coincidentally, I wrote a book on systems being better than goals.
—
People keep asking me to demonstrate my lack of bias by pointing out some of Trump’s mistakes. The problem is that Trump has a skill set that absorbs mistakes and turns them into whatever he wants them to be. That’s his system.
EVERY debate season preceding every presidential election. Why doesn't the GOP chairman stop this, why AGREE to it, why not DEMAND to be treated fairly? Why do we need "moderators" asking questions anyway?
NOW we finally have a candidate with the cajones, the only one in this bunch, only one in living memory, to refuse to participate unless the debate host network removes the HIGHLY PARTISAN, unqualified, proven Trump hater, transparently seeking to curry favor with her left wing friends and colleagues.
And NOW the Cruzers on FR who weren't even around for all these previous debates in history, knew or cared nothing about politics or were simply Democrats---NOW these people, to support their Establishment candidate, call Trump a COWARD, he's too afraid to face Megyn Kelly. Even Ted Goldman Sachs Cruz is saying it. That's pitiful, because THIS is EXACTLY what conservatives and republicans have wanted for years and years: to NOT let the host network get away with using moderators who are leftists intent upon embarrassing and trying to ruin our candidates, in this case Trump.
So Trump is THE one to set the precedent, to DO what everyone before just TALKED about, and the idiots who should be over on Commitment2Establishment so childishly say, Trump is afraid of Megyn Kelly! LOL!!!!!!!!!!
PS---Trump kicked ass in SIX DEBATES and no one laid a glove on him, and now the losers want another shot at the heavy weight champion. But they aren't in his class. So no rematch.
Scott Allen? Is that the 40 year old guy down the street, that lives with his mommy.
Politics is show biz.
Vote Trump
I made a similar argument earlier about how there’s no downside from Trump, so I’m happy to see the esteemed Scott Adams agrees ;-)
But seriously, Trump has said repeatedly that we’re getting our butts kicked all over the globe by people who are terrible negotiators. He wrote (literally) the book on how to negotiate, and let’s be fair, if Ted Cruz is to be regarded as a master debater, then Donald Trump has to be recognized as a master negotiator. After Fox News failed to give him what he wanted, he did what he tells others to do and walked away. He’s lost nothing by doing so, but Fox will be humiliated in the end, either by the “Tweetstorm” that will overpower their carefully Google-scripted analysis, or when the poor ratings news comes out. Trump had to pull out to show the American people what it’s like to be a winner and not eat whatever crap you are served by those who mistakenly think they can tell you what to do. It’s what Rush calls a “teachable moment”.
Well, after taking some shots at him tonight, i will agree that Trump has a method to his madness.
speaking of madness, i’m off FR till at least afternoon tomorrow before I go past the point of no return and stop eating, drinking, bathing and working and eventually waste away and die in front of my PC with FR staring back at me.
FTC
The genesis of the Trump/Kelly feud was not that debate question back in August. A few days earlier, Kelly ran on short notice with an un-vetted story about Trump’s first wife accusing him of rape. She irresponsibly ran with it instead of waiting to verify and indeed the story turned out to be garbage and Ivana Trump denied it completely. So Trump really did not like Kelly going into the debate and then she hits him with that hardball while giving everyone else softballs.
And btw, the genesis of Trump’s personal insults towards Rosie O’Donnell was Rosie saying some really nasty things about Trump’s family so he hit back.
Nobody remembers these things. So yeah, Megyn Kelly is full of sh*t.
Bad decision to cut her hair.
She is dumb as a box of rocks, like most show biz celebrities.
You mean Scott Adams? He created Dilbert.
A picture is worth 1000 words.
Yep, Trump will host an event that will be carried live by all the other networks while Jeb! debates the Mailman on Fox. Checkmate.
If Trump is nominate d, maybe he will refuse to debate the ‘Rat candidate at all.
If he — or any other Republican — does that, I’d be quite happy.
The “debates” are fraudulent anyway — the Crowley/Obama collaboration demonstrated that.
Exactly. He lays this all out in the Art of the Deal. He has literally published his script in his book and they get outwitted by him at every turn. I just finished reading it. Great book.
If Trump should get the nomination, and Hillary is his opponent, this could be the first time in history that there’s no Presidential Debate.
I was already expecting her to be the one to wriggle out if her opponent is Cruz
Awww poor Donald. Bad ass conservative woman like Michelle Malkin and Megyn Kelley won’t kiss your ring. Good for them. Hit the road you bully.
There is checkers....there is chess...and then there is Trump chess.
further, when a woman cuts her hair, it is often because she has been hurt by a man in the romance/feelz, and wants to attempt to re-assert control; or because she is getting bad advice from other womynz.
Face it, Megyn is 50 and not getting any younger. It must burn her up to know that The Donald's wife is younger and hotter than her.
(Teh Donald is still a better catch than Brit Hume...)
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