Posted on 02/01/2016 8:08:55 PM PST by jstaff
I don’t think so. :-)
I fear a Rubio surge. But with that comes the extra scrutiny. We’ll see how well he will withstand it.
After how he screwed the Gators, I would never vote for Cam.
[We’ll see if Rubio can stand up now to the media scrutiny that is going to come.]
If there is going to be any RUBIO scrutiny, it will have to come from FR. RUBIO is the MSM wonder boy.
Sounds reasonable.
Expect Rubio to get a lot of the Bush, Fiorina, Christie contingent to consolidate his position as the GOPe candidate.
I hope Cruz picks up some of the Carson and Paul voters.
We’ll see what happens with Trump.
Remember between Cruz, Trump Carson and Paul you are looking @ >2/3rd of the republican voters today.
Rubio will have to address
* arrest record and related gay rumors
* rumors of inappropriate party cc spending including lobbyist
* other infidelity rumors
* rumor of $300k casino bribe
* story of home foreclosure and relationship with alleged shady co-owner
* rumors his home was paid for with family drug money
* family drug issues
* and gang of 8 and voting record
Could prove interesting
The real story is what happens in South Carolina where Trump is not nearly as far ahead. Some tightening there could make that state a toss up.
And then theirs the Rubio story... if Rubio catches on... and especially if Bush drops out.... Florida might suddenly become a 3 way horse race for all the marbles.
I don’t think they will change quite that fast, but probably by Friday. And the danger for Trump is that instead of only having one challenger gaining support, he will probably have 2, both Cruz and Rubio. I still think Trump will win NH, but not by anywhere near what the polls are currently showing - probably by about 5%. And that plus Iowas will begin to hurt his aura of inevitability and make SC a real crapshoot. I have said before that I think we will get to March 1 with no more than about 10 delegates difference between Trump and Cruz.
Well we have seen once again how reliable the polls are when it actually comes time to vote. I think Trump will probably hold on, but the margin will be considerably narrower than the polls currently show.
No, but Cruz has been quietly building support among Republican and independent libertarians in NH, along with the evangelical vote. I don't think he will win NH, but then he was never planning on winning NH. That state is more likely to support a NE liberal like Trump. But the evangelical vote comes into play again in a big way in SC.
Here in SC, most people I talk to are Trump supporters. Even spoke with a few baptist ministers who are for Trump, so the Evangelical edge does not look like it will be in play here.
Also, we have a lot more minorities here than in Iowa. There are many that are crossovers from the Dem side.
We’ll see soon, won’t we?
I think your guesses are pretty close to the mark.
That is always an unreliable way to gauge support for a candidate. Chances are that you know and talk to a lot of people who happen to think like you do. It is like when Nixon won - a liberal in NY could understand how, because she didn't know anyone who voted for him.
And what happens in NH could have a big impact on the SC race. If Trump only wins by a point or two after leading by 28 points, that could shake up a lot of his support in later contests.
LOL!
I support Cruz 100%, but don’t fool yourself, the Christian vote carried Cruz and NH is full of pagans. They act like someone that prays is akin to putting people on the rack. You will here many times before Friday that we aren’t electing a pope. S Carolina could be a different story though. I pray Cruz goes right into the black churches and makes his pitch there. Most just give them up to Hitlery without a peep. If Cruz could get a measurable slice of the black vote in SC, he might carry it off.
“I pray Cruz goes right into the black churches and makes his pitch there. Most just give them up to Hitlery without a peep. If Cruz could get a measurable slice of the black vote in SC, he might carry it off.”
Ummmmm... do you not realize that Cruz just just majorly screwed over the black candidate? And you expect blacks to flock to him?
Here’s some nostalgia for you ( just two days ago before the Iowa caucus ):
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3391158/posts
If Trump Leads Cruz by 9 Points in Iowa on the Eve of the Caucuses – 34-25%
Donald Trump 34%
Ted Cruz 25%
Marco Rubio 14%
Ben Carson 7%
Jeb Bush 5%
Rand Paul 3%
John Kasich 3%
Chris Christie 1%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Other 2%
Undecided 3%
How did it turn out?
Cruz won Iowa due to outstanding organization. I don’t think he can repeat that in NH. Perhaps he can in South Carolina and other states. We will see...
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