Posted on 02/01/2016 8:08:55 PM PST by jstaff
So, how far will the polls flip in NH, in the next 48 hours. I say Trump drops 8-10, Cruz up 6-8, Rubio up 4-6. How far off am I?
I think Rubio might actually play better in NH than Cruz.
Do the folks in New Hampshire really like New Yorkers?
Rubio, with all the Big Money he gets after tonight, will Cruise by Cruz in NH
No, the people in the Live, Freeze and Die state hate people from New York.
NH was a big Trump lead at last check...not sure they’ll be swayed by Calgary Cruz tonight or hop aboard the Rubio bandwagon. They may hold the line for Trump
97.77% wrong
It depends on if Kasich and Bush fight to retain their viability.
Right now they sit between the 3 you mentioned and account for 21pct of the poll count.
I expect some bounce for Ted, but 8 might be a bit high.
Rubio will get some gloss from the media love fest.
I don’t know if Trump drops below 30, but the others have light years of work to catch him, he’s up 25.
Time will tell, it’s been a weird year so far.
I’m hoping Kasich makes a big push and keeps Rubio in 4th.
I don’t know if Jeb can hold a top 4 slot, but I’d root for him to hold his poll line just to keep Rubio in 5th.
Trump will still likely win by double digits with Rubio finishing second.
You are way off.
Trump might lose a few points, but it won’t move much. Cruz and Rubio both will pick up some support, but that just clarifies the fight for the second, third, and fourth slots.
There are three tickets coming out of Iowa. If you hold those tickets, you have to finish in the top four of New Hampshire to continue the ride.
Trump gets first place, probably at 31%. Cruz I think moves hard into second and will get around 14%. Rubio will move up and be in the 13% range. Who comes in fourth? Good question, and I think it will be Christie at about 11%. But he didn’t win a ticket in Iowa and without getting a win in New Hampshire, he won’t be able to last.
As long as none of the top three makes any huge blunders, I think New Hampshire is just an endurance test, and South Carolina will be more important.
Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson and Christie (maybe) will be in South Carolina, but only two make it out in good shape. If it is within 2% between 1st and 2nd, a third candidate might be able to challenge on Super Tuesday. But I am thinking by that time, we will know who the final two standing are.
The Evangelicals that Cruz relied on won’t be there for him in New Hampshire.
However will this become a trend now with Trump underperforming his poll numbers?
We’ll see if Rubio can stand up now to the media scrutiny that is going to come. Carson and Fiorina had their surges that ended just as fast once they were exposed to the light.
Another big issue here is time. It’s not like N.H. is 3 weeks or a month away. It’s 7 days away, and in the middle will be Super Bowl weekend where nobody will be focusing on politics.
I don’t think there will be much movement away from Trump. He takes the state imho.
Trump gave a good speech and may go up
This will give Rubio a big boost.
N.H. is a last stand for Christie and it won’t be enough.
Trump needs to go up and shore up his support. The lead is big enough to that he shouldn’t lose it but he can’t be so sure.
I agree he will likely take the state, I don’t think he will win by a lot. And I think Cam Newton will make a good VP for whoever is the candidate. But I used to live in CO and now I live in NC, so I am a little biased.
As long if it's not no arm Peyton Manning
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