I think Rubio might actually play better in NH than Cruz.
Do the folks in New Hampshire really like New Yorkers?
Rubio, with all the Big Money he gets after tonight, will Cruise by Cruz in NH
NH was a big Trump lead at last check...not sure they’ll be swayed by Calgary Cruz tonight or hop aboard the Rubio bandwagon. They may hold the line for Trump
97.77% wrong
It depends on if Kasich and Bush fight to retain their viability.
Right now they sit between the 3 you mentioned and account for 21pct of the poll count.
I expect some bounce for Ted, but 8 might be a bit high.
Rubio will get some gloss from the media love fest.
I don’t know if Trump drops below 30, but the others have light years of work to catch him, he’s up 25.
Time will tell, it’s been a weird year so far.
I’m hoping Kasich makes a big push and keeps Rubio in 4th.
I don’t know if Jeb can hold a top 4 slot, but I’d root for him to hold his poll line just to keep Rubio in 5th.
Trump will still likely win by double digits with Rubio finishing second.
You are way off.
Trump might lose a few points, but it won’t move much. Cruz and Rubio both will pick up some support, but that just clarifies the fight for the second, third, and fourth slots.
There are three tickets coming out of Iowa. If you hold those tickets, you have to finish in the top four of New Hampshire to continue the ride.
Trump gets first place, probably at 31%. Cruz I think moves hard into second and will get around 14%. Rubio will move up and be in the 13% range. Who comes in fourth? Good question, and I think it will be Christie at about 11%. But he didn’t win a ticket in Iowa and without getting a win in New Hampshire, he won’t be able to last.
As long as none of the top three makes any huge blunders, I think New Hampshire is just an endurance test, and South Carolina will be more important.
Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson and Christie (maybe) will be in South Carolina, but only two make it out in good shape. If it is within 2% between 1st and 2nd, a third candidate might be able to challenge on Super Tuesday. But I am thinking by that time, we will know who the final two standing are.
Another big issue here is time. It’s not like N.H. is 3 weeks or a month away. It’s 7 days away, and in the middle will be Super Bowl weekend where nobody will be focusing on politics.
I don’t think there will be much movement away from Trump. He takes the state imho.
This will give Rubio a big boost.
I don’t think so. :-)
Sounds reasonable.
Expect Rubio to get a lot of the Bush, Fiorina, Christie contingent to consolidate his position as the GOPe candidate.
I hope Cruz picks up some of the Carson and Paul voters.
We’ll see what happens with Trump.
Remember between Cruz, Trump Carson and Paul you are looking @ >2/3rd of the republican voters today.
The real story is what happens in South Carolina where Trump is not nearly as far ahead. Some tightening there could make that state a toss up.
And then theirs the Rubio story... if Rubio catches on... and especially if Bush drops out.... Florida might suddenly become a 3 way horse race for all the marbles.
I don’t think they will change quite that fast, but probably by Friday. And the danger for Trump is that instead of only having one challenger gaining support, he will probably have 2, both Cruz and Rubio. I still think Trump will win NH, but not by anywhere near what the polls are currently showing - probably by about 5%. And that plus Iowas will begin to hurt his aura of inevitability and make SC a real crapshoot. I have said before that I think we will get to March 1 with no more than about 10 delegates difference between Trump and Cruz.
We’ll see soon, won’t we?
I think your guesses are pretty close to the mark.
I support Cruz 100%, but don’t fool yourself, the Christian vote carried Cruz and NH is full of pagans. They act like someone that prays is akin to putting people on the rack. You will here many times before Friday that we aren’t electing a pope. S Carolina could be a different story though. I pray Cruz goes right into the black churches and makes his pitch there. Most just give them up to Hitlery without a peep. If Cruz could get a measurable slice of the black vote in SC, he might carry it off.