[CA Conservative]

A little back of the envelope math tells me that Trump needs to get 81 delegates tomorrow to stay on the same track that he is currently on. Right now, he needs 54% of the remaining delegates to get to 1237; 81 delegates tomorrow would be 54% of those delegates, keeping him basically on his current track. If he gets less, then he will need a greater percentage of the delegates in future contests; more, and he needs a lower percentage of future contests.

If Trump gets both Florida and Ohio, it will be hard to stop him. If he gets one of the two, he still has a path to 1237, but it gets harder. If he loses both, we are probably going to an open convention.

[Thud]

Thanks for the calculation.

[Thud]

Trump won 47.3% of last night’s delegates (71 of 150) so he fell somewhat behind the mark he needs.