Posted on 03/16/2016 11:10:08 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
This is not an argument for what should happen or what I’d like to happen in the November presidential election, but about what would likely happen in a Donald Trump-Hillary Clinton race: Clinton would win, and probably by a wide margin.
I caution Trump supporters: You can’t just say that Trump will win. That claim must be based on evidence and recognized patterns of political behavior. Crowds at rallies and winning primary elections, especially with only a plurality of the vote, is not evidence that a candidate can win in a general election.
Even if you add up everyone who has attended a Trump rally, that’s only a tiny fraction of total voters in a presidential general election. In both 2008 and 2012, there were about 130 million voters in those presidential elections. And the difference between a turnout in a primary and general election is great. For example, Trump won both the South Carolina and Michigan primaries, but in the general election in those states there will likely be twice as many voters as the number that voted in the primary (counting both Republican and Democratic primary voters).
You could look at head-to-head polls to predict an outcome. Real Clear Politics has nearly 50 polls going back several months which polls a Trump-Clinton race, and Trump has small leads in only five of those polls. In the last month, Clinton’s advantage has been just over 6 points.
But months remain until the election, and there will be barrages of ads trashing candidates.
So how do people choose whom they are voting for? For those people who identify with a political party, party identification is the most important factor. For example, in the 2012 race, 92 percent of Democrats supported Obama and 93 percent of Republicans supported Romney. And in 2008 it was similar with 93 percent of Democrats supporting Obama and 93 percent of Republicans supporting McCain.
Obama and Romney in 2012 and Obama and McCain in 2008 came very close to splitting the independents in both of those elections. So what was the difference? There were more people who identified as a Democrat than as a Republican (according to Gallup). Right now, according to Gallup, Democrats have only a slight advantage when it comes to party identification, so that’s good news for the eventual Republican nominee.
So if party identification is a very important predictor of voter choice, then the way to victory is to get your party to vote for you, win half or more of the independents, and try to peel away some voters from the other party.
But can Trump get nearly all of those who identify as a Republican? I can’t think of any candidate in recent history who generates such strong dislike from some members of his party.
Trump and his supporters can claim that nearly all of the party will come around to support him in the fall, but that seems implausible. Still, assume that most Republicans would come around to support Trump. Even getting 80 percent of Republicans would put him in a difficult position to win.
But Trump claims that he’s drawing independents and Democrats. But the polling suggests it’s going to be very hard for him get enough independents and Democrats to win in the fall. A January poll from Gallup indicated that Trump had the worst favorability ratings among any Republican candidates among independents and Democrats. Trump was net -27 among independents (that is, his unfavorability rating was 27 points higher than his favorability rating) and -70 among Democrats. No other Republican was so far underwater with non-Republicans. It’s not enough to get some independents and Democrats. For Trump to win, he gets a majority of independents and at least 20 percent of Democrats.
Trump, the businessman, should understand you need a plan for winning. In presidential politics you need a plan for winning a majority of electoral votes because there’s only one winner. Attracting a dedicated minority of voters wins no prize.
The Trump campaign is like one of those outlandish business ideas, like personal travel to the moon, that has some potential customers, but it doesn’t have a winning business plan.
Where was this analysis for Romney, McCain, Dole, etc?
Worthless GOPe turds.
Just more Trump-bashing. Same old GOPe crap.
If Hillary or Bernie wins the general, then the country is toast.
Of course he cant. That’s why he alone gets more votes than the entire field did in some primaries in 2012.
OMG, maybe we should pick an establishment candidate who has a better chance of winning.....like Bob Dole....or McCain.....or Romney.......what’s the definition of insanity again?
The dimoKKKRATS are worried enough that they had a lot of voters vote for Kasich.
LOL, dream on, loser.
It will be Trump in a landslide.
Trump will beat her because she is an incompetent criminal who jeopardized our national security and allowed 4 heroes to languish and die in Benghazi and then lied about the cause. I can’t believe there is even any question. Trump has not even started on her yet, it will be scorched earth. She is also very sick.
Not only will Trump win, he will dominate.
Is this what we want for a President? (Trump starts on Hillary)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3410025/posts
Most ‘independents’ haven’t even started paying attention yet. They will when the Hillary vs Trump debates start - and I believe Trump will win the majority of them over to his side.
And lets face it - he is socially liberal on many issues. I can see a lot of cross-over voting in the general election.
Why not ask - could Hillary really win?
RE: because she is an incompetent criminal who jeopardized our national security and allowed 4 heroes to languish and die in Benghazi and then lied about the cause.
That my friend, is assuming that the majority of voters even CARE about this piece of 4 year old history. I’m afraid a lot of people have other priorities ... like — what am I personally going to get out of this.
Well that’s that. Polls show hitlary up, 9 months before the election.
We need to draft Jeb! to save us.
... or Jeb....or Rubio....or Kasich....or Christie....or Fiorina....or Huckabee....
No doubt any of the above could beat Hillary!
Republicans are going to prevent Trump from getting the nomination so they can......
Run Jeb....
You can’t just say he will lose. Based on the turn out number the hard voter data does not support these “polling” assumptions the Hate Trump Always squad throws around.
Clifton was suppose to win MI by 20 points. She lost. Bevin was suppose to lose the KY gov race. He won. The polling on any primary has been off, significnatly.
Polling is best guess based on a wide number of assumptions. It is not hard factual data.
RE: That’s why he alone gets more votes than the entire field did in some primaries in 2012.
The writer of the article concedes that, but then says — that’s only a tiny fraction of total voters in a presidential general election.
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