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Nothing Changed Yesterday—And Trump Is Still Not on the Path to Nomination
National Review ^ | 04/20/2016 | Jeremy Carl

Posted on 04/21/2016 8:20:11 AM PDT by Responsibility2nd

Before we begin debunking, let’s start with the obvious: It was undoubtedly a good night for Trump and unsurprisingly so, as NR’s Henry Olsen predicted on election eve.

Trump looks to have taken 90 delegates and 60 percent of the vote, somewhat better than projections, although most election-eve forecasts had him taking at least 85 or so of New York’s 95 delegates (Olsen had him pegged for 87).

But despite his victory, Trump got only a very modest bump from New York last night. And despite the breathless TV and print commentary from our New York–centered media, he still faces huge obstacles if he wants to get a sufficient number of delegates to be nominated on the first ballot. And if he is not nominated on the first ballot, given Cruz’s wildly successful delegate strategy, it is unlikely he will be nominated at all.

In fact, according to the analysis of the widely-respected 538.com, Trump actually fell just short of the number of delegates he needed in New York to put himself on the path to the magic number of 1,237.

And, though he should have a good week next week when Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island vote, he will need a New York–level performance, not just a victory, if he wants to substantially improve his nomination odds.

New York and the five states voting next Tuesday are all part of the Democrats’ “blue wall.” Democrats have won all of these states in each of the last six elections. Only one of these states (Pennsylvania) has given more than 45 percent of its vote to the GOP candidate in any of the last six elections. New York and Rhode Island have never even given 40 percent to GOP candidates during this time.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Cheese, Moose, Sister
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2016gopprimary; connecticut; cruzisobama2; cruzstraitjacket; cuckservatives; delaware; election2016; hillary; howarddeanredux; ilovetowhine; lemonadestand; maryland; moosebitsister; nationalgopereview; nationalreview; newyork; nrsux; oprah; pennsylvania; rhodeisland; richlowry; tds; tdswindup; transsexual; trump; waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah
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To: Responsibility2nd

Input from The National Review.


Those 4 words say it all.


41 posted on 04/21/2016 8:42:46 AM PDT by samtheman (Trump For America.)
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To: Responsibility2nd

NR is in the tank against Trump.

But, if on Tuesday the 26th Trump picks up another 100 delegates (and I believe he will, if not more), then he is going to be closing in on 950+ delegates.

That will leave him about 280 short...with still 500 more to go. I believe he will get the 53% of those he needs.

He has the only path to the nomination before the convention, and at this stage, short of a major fumble, I believe he is on track to get it.

This is why I, as a Cruz supporter, wrote the following:

My Open Letter to Ted Cruz after the NY Primary
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3422900/posts

Although Ted now has no path to the nomination prior to the convention, Ted does have the power to unite the party and drive the stake through the GOPe’s heart.

I hope he will.


42 posted on 04/21/2016 8:43:17 AM PDT by Jeff Head (Semper Fidelis - Molon Labe - Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: Responsibility2nd

43 posted on 04/21/2016 8:43:21 AM PDT by moovova
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To: Responsibility2nd

No wonder Trump’s afraid to debate Cruz.

Can you imagine the hit he’d take if Cruz asked him, “So, Donald, should men use men’s bathrooms and women use women’s bathrooms?”

If Trump can’t get that right, how badly would he mangle the rest of it?


44 posted on 04/21/2016 8:45:10 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (You can't have a constitution without a country to go with it)
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To: Responsibility2nd

“The exits showed that Kasich dominated among the #NeverTrump crowd in New York. Among the 24 percent of voters who said they would not vote for Trump if he were the GOP nominee, Kasich won a staggering 72 percent of them, far better than he had ever previously done with this demographic.”


45 posted on 04/21/2016 8:46:12 AM PDT by ChessExpert (It is not compassion when you use government to give other people's money away.)
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To: Responsibility2nd

Running against 16 people, Trump as acquired 48.85% of the awarded delegates right now. That is pretty amazing.

Here are his numbers. Notice how they change over the next week.

date
delegates awarded
his delegate count
his percentage of delegates obtained of those awarded
his percentage of delegates he must have
delegates he still needs
percentage of remaining delegates he must obtain

04/19: 1798, 0846, 48.85% 68.39% 391 58.01%
04/26: 1970, 0981, 51.17% 79.30% 256 51.00%

Notice how his delegates obtained percentage falls in line with his delegates needed percentage.

It moves from 48.85% / 58.01% to 51.17% / 51.00%.

After 04/26 Trump will need to get 51.00% of the remaining delegates.

Up until 04/26 he will have gotten 51.17% of awarded delegates.

If he continues to perform as he has, he will get 1237.


46 posted on 04/21/2016 8:47:08 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Hey Ted, why are you taking one for the RNC/GOPe team, and not ours? Not that we don't know.)
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To: Pirate Ragnar
Trumpheads just cannot tolerate any opinion that challenges their emotional investment in a non-conservative.
Well I guess we'll see you on the other side...


...or not
47 posted on 04/21/2016 8:50:02 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (The GOPe deserve nothing more than a middle finger)
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To: ChessExpert

Trump won 61% of the whole pie.

Kasich won 72% of a slice of the pie.

24% vs 61%. Poor Kasich...

Even poorer Cruz...


48 posted on 04/21/2016 8:50:05 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Hey Ted, why are you taking one for the RNC/GOPe team, and not ours? Not that we don't know.)
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To: Responsibility2nd

Don’t these idiots hope it. Trump cannot be stopped for the 1237 or more.

Trump for President.


49 posted on 04/21/2016 8:51:34 AM PDT by Logical me
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To: Responsibility2nd

Wow, just wow. Donald Trump is dead in the water. He’s out of it. Finished. Kaput. Destroyed. Contested Convention here we come. Ted Cruz is the ONLY candidate who will win because of his vaunted ground game in deciding states like .... Utah. How did I not see this before? Oh, wait, yes that’s it. I’m part of a cult because I support Trump. /sarc


50 posted on 04/21/2016 8:51:41 AM PDT by navymom1
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To: moovova

Hilarious!


51 posted on 04/21/2016 8:51:56 AM PDT by mac_truck (aide toi et dieu t'aidea)
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To: pgkdan

No, what they are doing is a “circle mental self gratification.” Then again the result is no more substantial.


52 posted on 04/21/2016 8:52:24 AM PDT by DuhYup (The Bill of Rights is a package deal!)
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To: Responsibility2nd
Hope springs eternal at the National Review.
53 posted on 04/21/2016 8:53:10 AM PDT by Will88
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To: RightLady

Can you show me the documentation of his plan to raise taxes on the wealthy as you state? Thanks.


54 posted on 04/21/2016 8:54:08 AM PDT by navymom1
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To: Cobra64
What’s a Trumper?

Sort of like a Cruzealot ... only sane (as the primary results continue to roll in.)

55 posted on 04/21/2016 8:54:19 AM PDT by glennaro
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To: Responsibility2nd
Ah the National Review....

The Baghdad Bob of the 2016 Republican Primary Season...

56 posted on 04/21/2016 8:55:20 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Responsibility2nd

Whistling past the graveyard


57 posted on 04/21/2016 8:55:34 AM PDT by jneesy (I want my country back and Trump is gonna give it to me)
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To: Cyberman

Oh my gosh, I love, love this picture. I had this with the same man throughout history from the Trojan Horse to the Barbarians at the Gate. Too funny.


58 posted on 04/21/2016 8:56:18 AM PDT by navymom1
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To: Responsibility2nd

How in the world do “so called Blue” states have any
input in republican primaries? That may matter in the
general but doesn’t mean a thing right now.

Trump has these establishment flaks running scared,
from both parties too.


59 posted on 04/21/2016 8:57:25 AM PDT by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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To: Yashcheritsiy

So now you love Jesus and America?


60 posted on 04/21/2016 8:57:54 AM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No peace - No Islam, Know Peace)
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