McGinty (PA) and Ross (NC) lead only by an average of one point. That includes the Ross +9 outlier in NC. Further, Heck (R) is leading polling for Reid’s seat in NV. Bayh’s lead in IN over Young (R) is shrinking.
More likely, the Dems will net a gain of +2.
The Dems won’t win a Senate seat here in PA this year.
Pennsylvanians roundly dislike the new D Governor Tom Wolfe who shows zero ability to negotiate even when in his best interest and the first D and first female Attorney General in PA history, Kathleen Kane, who was convicted on all felony counts earlier this year.
Both elected less than two years ago; and Wolfe’s personality flaws were immediately evident after taking office; and Kane was in legal trouble within months after taking office.
The backlash will keep Toomey in office. McGinty has the same liberal personality as Kane and the bad memories in PA are just too fresh of the mistake voters made just two years ago.
Might be just enough bad taste in everyone’s mouth to flip PA to Trump, too.
I’m not voting for McLame.
LA, which turned D for governor in 2015, could also turn D for Senate in 2016. Two Democrat candidates with pluralities could conceivably make the December runoff contest and leave four or five Republicans, who have the majority collectively, out of contention.