U.S. importing more oil for the first time since 2010

UPI ^ | 10/21/16 | Daniel J. Graeber

[panhandle67]

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said at a conference this year in North Dakota that he'd end U.S. oil imports from OPEC if elected in November.

[panhandle67]

By region, EIA said imports from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased by 504,000 barrels per day, making up the bulk of the new oil entering the U.S. economy. Declines from Mexico were offset by more imports from Canada, making the net gain from non-OPEC countries less than 24,000 bpd.

[Rashputin]

Now that oil exports are legal, how much did we export during that same time period?

And no, I don't care if it was this or that kind of oil, this article doesn't break it down that way so what kind is exported is irrelevant in this context.

[VTenigma]

Opec and the Saudi’s war on fracking seems to be paying off for them. Oh yeah, I can’t leave Obama, Hillary, and the moonbat let out of the equation.

[rockinqsranch]

I thought we’d fracked our way to almost if not independence from Ahab the Arab’s oil pool. This can only mean Obama, and crew with the approval to export OUR oil have opened us up to sending money to our enemies in the Middle East again.

Obviously I’m not into the tracking of the oil market, or I’d make better sense in my post, but I think the un Americans in our government have pulled off another coup.

[butlerweave]

Obama’s keeping OPEC afloat

[shanover]

A very quick turnaround from the fracking boom to bust; high exports now back to being slaves to the oil SOB’s in the Mideast. Obama and company are complete POS. Everything is calculated for ultimate gain for the left and as much pain and destruction for America. Pray for a President Trump or we are sooo doomed with the b*tch.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

There’s an echo in the oil patch...
It may not last.

[BeauBo]

This is because prices were so low.

The “Shale Band” is $45-$65 per barrel. As prices drop through that range, you can get oil cheaper from the mideast. The Saudis can profitably pump some of their oil at $10.

This year, prices dropped around $30, and has since crept back up to around $50. So frakking slowed down, and Middle-Easteners sold cheap oil to make up the difference. Frakking in the USA is now recovering slightly from that big drop in price.

The bottom line is that the shale band price is the new normal. Most OPEC (and major non-OPEC) producers can’t bear such low prices, so frakking has fundamentally changed the oil market.

Prices can still go way up or way down in the short term, but in the long term, frakking can ramp up production to meet demand and secure our energy independence.

[oincobx]

It’s probably oil coming from West Africa and going to East Coast refineries. It’s cheaper to bring it in by boat from Nigeria than by train from the Bakken.

[sphinx]

Re: the long term. I don't recall having seen a good estimate for the expected life cycle of the fracking boom. The resource is big, but how big? Are we talking ten years to peak production? 25? 100 or more? China and India are getting cars. That's what will drive the market. We are not the dominant player anymore.

In the end, shale oil is also a finite resource. Fracking buys time, which is a good thing to have, but we will still have to transition to a new fuel source sooner or later. As far as I know, the long term still looks like a race between electric vehicles (with the unsettled question of how to generate the electricity to begin with), fuel cells (pending cost affordable solutions to a couple of problems), and biofuels (if prices come down on converting third generation feedstocks).

[AZLiberty]

Saudi competition has forced the fracking folks to improve their technology even more, leading to one major producer saying they can produce oil at $2.50/bbl. High-quality, easy-to-refine oil.

[WENDLE]

SHUT THAT DOWN.. Bomb Saudi Arabia for attacking the World Trade Center and killing 3000 AMERICANS!!

[BeauBo]

“(What is the) estimate for the expected life cycle of the fracking boom. The resource is big, but how big?”

The USA has a few trillion barrels of shale oil deposits, and we have a track record of finding more than we pump (total reserves have grown over time). That is more than the rest of the world’s total proven reserves of conventional oil. So just our shale oil is about 50 years worth of current US demand for oil. We also have additional regular oil reserves, world class natural gas reserves, and hundreds of years worth of coal.

The main factor in the frakking boom is price. If the price is high enough to sell it profitably ($45-$65 per barrel), producers will bring it to market (assuming that the government does not restrain them). When price drops too low (like earlier this year) they will start pulling in their horns. Due to the nature of frakking, they can ramp up production relatively quickly, but the longer prices are low, the slower the rebound (skilled people move to new jobs, equipment gets sold, etc.).

Oil shale varies widely in how easy (cheap) it is to extract - it is generally more expensive to produce than conventional oil, but technology has gotten better quickly. “Proven reserve” is a very high standard - sign a contract for timed delivery. A lot of our shale oil deposits would be harder to pump, and would cost more per barrel - but there is a LOT more of it, and we are finding lots more when we look.

We are not the only ones with Shale oil and gas, but we (and the Canadians) are the big active shale producers. As the technology spreads, others will start to produce more shale oil and gas (when prices favor the investment). Russians have bought technology and have huge deposits. Israel has significant deposits (not the best quality, but they also have big offshore conventional gas fields approaching production). China and Argentina, as well as most conventional major oil producers also have large shale deposits.

So the frakking/horizontal drilling revolution has changed the oil market fundamentally. Oil is much less scarce, and OPEC has much less control over total production or prices (above the shale price band).

The bottom line is that scarcity will not drive us off conventional hydrocarbon fuels like oil, gas or coal for a few generations - if ever. Cheaper alternatives are quite likely in that timeframe though - some analysts argue that solar cell efficiency is already reaching parity with market costs for grid electricty. Political actions (corrupt sellouts, global warming concerns, environmental restrictions on frakking) could drive us off hydrocarbons at high cost. But there is no realistic hard constraint on energy availability on the horizon.

[Rashputin]

Now that they've found a way to turn CO2 into fuel, coal is back in the picture big time.

Burn the coal, capture the CO2, turn it to fuel. Probably far more efficient than any of the so called "green energy" alternatives because there's a century of experience with using coal byproducts just sitting on the shelf (many of which are far more efficient now than in the past) because it was easier to transition to oil than to use coal.