From our backseat drivers position, we can all see that they would likely have been better off had they handled it in that manner, but from their perspective at that period of time, I have to conclude they made what seemed to be the best decisions they could under the circumstances.
The public information was that Lincoln had ordered an attack. If the Warships had done exactly what they had been ordered to do, everyone on the Confederate side would have been rebuked as "D@mn fools" for letting those ships and that fortress open up on their forces simultaneously.
People would have asked them "How could you have allowed this to happen? What is wrong with you that you did not see the danger of this and take steps to prevent it?"
It does not so much beggar the question why the Confederates did what they did, they believed themselves trapped in a no-win situation because they thought those ships were going to do what Lincoln ordered them to do.
As it is, Jefferson Davis does not even mention the Powhatan in his two volume published memoir and history of the Confederacy.
Why should he mention it? It didn't show up. He might not have known that it was the trigger for the attack which was never pulled. It was the dog that didn't bark.
He states the issue as being that the federal government had made clear that it would use force to resupply Fort Sumter.
They did make it clear. The Navy orders explicitly said that's what they were going to do.
My point is that the Confederate government was wrong and foolish to initiate hostilities -- and especially so after insisting that they wanted a peaceful separation.
You keep saying *THEY* initiated hostilities, when their efforts to peacefully eject unwanted "guests" were met with a flotilla of warships with orders to attack them.
I will also point out that when the Powhatan left New York, it had been disguised so it couldn't be recognized by people who knew it well. It's name was painted out, and the ship flew British Colors as it sneaked past the flotilla of ships waiting at Charleston harbor to begin their attack.
From whom was Lincoln hiding the ship? He was hiding it from everybody. He didn't want the Union ships to know that their biggest cannon platform was sailing away from the potential conflict, because the word would have gotten out that the whole thing was a feint.
He didn't want the Confederates to realize one of the Ships that was the main part of the flotilla was not going to lend it's guns to the attack, because the Confederates would immediately realize something was amiss and they therefore might not do anything foolish.
This business of deliberately disguising the Powhatan and having it fly a British flag while it was sailing around the other ships makes it clear that Lincoln was making a calculated play. This was no accident. Lincoln wanted a war, and he wanted it to look like the Confederates started it, and he engaged in machinations to make it happen.
Which it did.
And why did he do this? Money and power.
Davis could and should have avoided hostilities by ordering that a peaceful resupply of Fort Sumter be permitted. Union warships need not even have been allowed into Charleston harbor. Resupply could have been permitted via inspected merchant ships, or by harbor boats, or by allowing the garrison to purchase supplies in Charleston, as they had formerly done.
Instead, Davis ordered that the fort be fired upon and reduced. This touched off the Civil War through the beginning of hostilities, Lincoln's call for troops, and the final wave of secessions that completed the Confederacy. Notably, these events also relieved the pressure on Davis to do more to realize the plans of the secessionists. With Virginia hanging back before Sumter, Davis had clear political reasons at the time to have the Confederacy fire first.
The Powhatan's flying of false British colors at Pensacola has no bearing on Ft. Sumter. In keeping with the rules and practices of the era, the Confederate and Union navies both flew false flags during the Civil War. Indeed, even today, false flags are permitted at sea by international law, even though not on land.