Posted on 10/16/2018 12:48:33 PM PDT by gasport
Yesterday, we decided to not publish any results from the Florida Vote Projection Model because only 7,000 new votes were submitted by mail, making only minimal change in the model. However, with a haul of over 100,000 votes being submitted yesterday, we are starting the see a shift, ever so slightly, toward the Democrats. However, even with the shift, the Republicans still have the upper hand right now with ballots that have already been submitted.
Summary: Overall turnout in the state is now at 3.41%. Republican turnout is at 4.38%, while Democratic turnout is at 3.34%. NPA/Other turnout is at 2.24%. This leaves an Enthusiasm Gap of -10.83%, which still strongly favors the Republicans (but is a .33% swing toward the Democrats).
(Excerpt) Read more at thefloridasqueeze.com ...
But, how about voters who end up voting for other political parties other than the one that they are registered with?
does anyone know how this compares with prior years?
It appears they are measuring enthusiasm for a particular party. The choice of candidate is not part of the metric.
Generally speaking, and I am sure there are those far closer to the action who will correct me.. but it is my understanding if the Dems don’t bank big early voting numbers they lose... because the GOP almost always outperforms them on election day.
The the Hurricane hitting the Panhandle though, who knows... as that’s the red part of the state... will see how that plays out.
From what I remember, the dems usually come around late. The big thing is that the Republicans need to be ahead or close come election day.
I’ll wait till Nov 6 to vote. I’ll get picked up by a bus which will take me to several voting places to vote. So, like most Floridians, I will vote several times. So, these figures will change considerably on voting day. Of course I’m joking. But some little fishing villages in Florida with only about 300 registered voters always turn out about 8,000 votes. Voting more than once is a Florida tradition.
I have never voted early. Election Day is almost a liturgy for me.
I will this year in person to bulk the pre-election red #s and avoid vote suppression by The Reaper.
Probably from Rat strongholds in Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade.
I don’t buy this. I think R’s net gain here. At least 7 in the House. Maybe more.
A fair amount. No one really knows...
Dems love early voting but in FL with each election cycle, more and more voting is occurring even before early voting (VBM or absentee voting).
Explanation of methodology:
https://thefloridasqueeze.com/2018/10/11/2018-florida-vote-projection-model-day-1/
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.