Coronavirus Live Thread. No 12

3/8/2020

[Vermont Lt]

Continuation of the thread.

[SheepWhisperer]

(+)

[ETCM]

What scientific worst case scenarios?

I don't know exactly what they are thinking, but my opinion is that the only way to get to the "worst case scenario" is to effectively allow the virus to spread without significant intervention from public health organizations. Like I have posted on several threads, the more dangerous a virus is, the more people will do to avoid it. Worst case scenarios are not going to happen because people don't actually want themselves or their loved ones to die.

By every single reference I have seen, this virus is more contagious (higher R₀) than any influenza, so if left completely unchecked, it would infect as many or more than the flu. But it will not go unchecked. Our public health efforts might not be as effective as Singapore's, but they will be better than zero. Even people taking personal precautions like social distancing and hand washing will greatly slow the spread, not to mention the efforts in treatment, cancelling public gatherings, reducing travel, etc.

[bgill]

The demonrats are super quiet on Pence et al.

[Solson]

My county. I traveled to Europe in early Feb. Thank God I got out when I did.

[Fury]

Re: 342 - Thanks - great points.

[justa-hairyape]

Yes it will take work and vigilance. Maybe we should learn from the Chinese ?

[blueplum]

where they might have been infected in flight ***

thanks for mentioning that. I was just wondering, why we don’t have more stews sick? Still trying to figure out how soon an infected person starts shedding....If a person was infected say, 3 or 5 days before flying, and the stew isn’t sick, what does that mean re: shedding ? All we know is if the symptoms are full-blown, they’re highly contagious, as shown by nurses and doctors getting infected.

[cgbg]

The problem is that virus spread is probably several weeks ahead of the reporting in all countries.

So, by the time a country is determined to have a problem, there will already have been lots of flights from there.

Take a look at the current numbers from countries like France, Germany, Spain etc. here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Look at how fast there are increasing in just one day!

Flights from those countries should have been banned a week ago—we are always a day late and a dollar short.

[ncalburt]

They know the fall guy strategy here and are ready to pounce .
Its gonna get ugly now .

[Fury]

Yes it will take work and vigilance. Maybe we should learn from the Chinese ?

Maybe. I'm not sure that the equivalent of martial law in the manner they do will fly. But if people break quarantine (like the idiot in NH), there needs to be some consequence.

[Fury]

Had friends go to England, Italy, and Germany on a trip starting 12/09 and back on 12/26. Thank goodness they got back when they did.

[blueplum]

oh noooooooos not the distillery! :)

[LilFarmer]

GERMANY Updated demographics from Germany:

Of the 902 laboratory-confirmed cases, so far 447 cases from 14 states have been electronically reported to the Robert Koch Institute (see fig. 1). Among these cases, 249 are male (56%) and 198 female (43%). The age range is from 2 to 80 years, including 10 children under the age of 5, 10 children aged 5-14 and 373 persons in the age groups 15 to 59 years and 51 persons 60 years and older (see Figure 2). The age of 3 notified cases is unknown. The median age is 40 years.

Clinical information is available for 297 reported cases; Of these, 12 were reported to have none significant symptoms existed for COVID-19. The most common symptoms mentioned were cough (172 of 297, 58%), fever (130 out of 297, 44%), and runny nose (100 out of 297, 34%). Pneumonia occurred in 6 cases reported (2%). In addition, general symptoms such as headache, back pain, muscle pain, Joint pain, loss of appetite and weight, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, conjunctivitis, rash, Called lymph node swelling and apathy.

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-03-08-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

[nascarnation]

https://www.wthr.com/article/noblesville-schools-says-parent-children-are-self-quarantined-after-attending-out-state

[ncalburt]

We need to test all oversea arrival flights .
Its a petri dish .
An obvious point of infection .
Crew may be asymptomatic carriers .
The virus is so complicated why are letting people roll off snd go home to infect .

[mrsmith]

YES! WE'RE DOOMED!

In economic news...
" China Beige Book‏ @ChinaBeigeBook
e "Tech industry carries 3-12 wks of #inventory, while #autos has 2-10 wks...& >70% of global #smartphone output capacity is in #China. "If current situation continues into 2H March, we'll start seeing a massive impact on inventories"

[Jane Long]

Probably best.

[dynachrome]

My folks were always worried about flu/cold, so they had sanitizer to hand all the time and wore masks when they flew up until a few years ago.

[BusterDog]

“ This thing is going to be coming and going for at least the next three years.”

It’s too infectious for that. It may constantly mutate and be around for three decades, though.

I guess you are no longer holding to the 10% infected tops in US estimate?

[Mariner]

“But if people break quarantine (like the idiot in NH), there needs to be some consequence. “

Every state in the union has a law against breaking an ordered quarantine. And no state in the union prosecutes for it.

And worse, now most quarantine is voluntary/advisory. The county health official doesn’t even bother to issue a formal order.

Criminal negligence, at least.