Tet II: Will America Fall for the Same Trick Twice? How will we NOT?

9/13/040 | xm177e2

[xm177e2]

You all know what the Tet Offensive was and why it was so important, in Vietnam and in America.

The NLF and the NVA lost around 35,000 men killed, 60,000 wounded and 6,000 POWs for no military success. The US and ARVN dead totalled around 3,900 (1,100 US). But this was not the conflict as the US public saw it. US media reports of the battles shocked both the American public and its politicians. Apparently the depth of the US reaction surprised even the North Vietnamese leadership.

With the election upcoming, the Iraqi resistance would be absolutely stupid not to make a similar move. If they could knock Bush out of office and replace him with avowed defeatism Kerry, their work in Iraq would be much easier.

Bush says we will stay the course. If terrorists increase their ferocity, we will match them and defeat them. Kerry has hinted at and given the impression that he does not want to commit more American resources to Iraq. If the terrorists are on good behavior, he will support the occupation. But if the terrorists increase their fury, he will work to bring Americans home. In other words, he will reward the terrorists for causing chaos, and punish them for not attacking. This is a loser's outlook--you can't win a conflict if you aren't willing to fight for it.

Expect to see a major terrorist offensive just before our elections. Because the terrorists will be playing to an American audience rather than Iraqi, they won't care so much about civilian Iraqi casualties. They will try to kill as many American soldiers and Iraqi government/military people as possible. It will be very bloody. They will work as hard as they can to create the impression that there is chaos. They will in the process sacrifice many of their best fighters--it would be the insurgency's last big chance for victory.

Likewise, expect Bush/Allawi to go on the offensive before the election, NOT because it's good politics for Bush, but because it is necessary to counter the coming Iraqi attacks.

The American public must be reminded of all this ahead of time, so they are not suprised (though I think I'm not giving the public enough credit). Equally important, the public must consider the fact that Bush will probably need to launch an offensive. Any Democrat who criticizes the pre-election offensive as a political move should be attacked as unpatriotic.

[xm177e2]

If the public is expecting a major tet-like attack, I think it would lose its psychological punch.

And, as always, we should remember the soldiers in the field who will hae to absorb the real attacks.

Just my thoughts/worries...

[MEG33]

I think they are engaged in their"attack" as we type...I don't think the public is hanging on to every thought of the MSM as they did for Uncle Walter,The most trusted man in America."...

[Boundless]

We didn't have the NewMedia during the Vietnam war.

Plus, with Madrid, anyone capable of rational thought
knows what the cutthroat cult might attempt in order
to support their chosen candidate.

It's definitely worthwhile to discuss this, even with
any "progressive" friends and relatives you might have,
so that they can plan their response.