Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

John Kerry Has an 85% Chance of WINNING!!!
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ ^

Posted on 09/29/2004 4:20:04 PM PDT by Maceman

It must be true. I saw it here.

The DUmmies are very excited.


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: kerry; landslide
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-46 next last
Have at it.
1 posted on 09/29/2004 4:20:05 PM PDT by Maceman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Maceman

85% chance? What color is the sky on their planet???


2 posted on 09/29/2004 4:21:45 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Maceman

This amateur's statistical model was debunked thoroughly on FR weeks ago.

I's suggest thare is an over 99% chance that the model is wrong. :-)


3 posted on 09/29/2004 4:22:12 PM PDT by HitmanLV (I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Maceman

Polls are at least as reliable as fortune cookies, global warming models and chicken entrails.


4 posted on 09/29/2004 4:22:27 PM PDT by T'wit (There is only one form of government -- too much)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Maceman

IN MASSACHUSETS! Or however you spell it!


5 posted on 09/29/2004 4:22:43 PM PDT by Arkie2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Maceman

That guy hasn't even a rudimentary understanding of statistics. But he does know how to use Excel.


6 posted on 09/29/2004 4:23:10 PM PDT by Petronski (DEMS: Kim tested, Osama approved.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Maceman
I have one word from the Monte Carlo simulation:

CRAP

7 posted on 09/29/2004 4:23:34 PM PDT by COURAGE (A charter member of the Grim FReeper Club)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Maceman

I don't believe it. Spin for the upcoming corruption at the voting booths.


8 posted on 09/29/2004 4:23:38 PM PDT by Raffus (Thanks to all Veterans for their service to our Country.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Maceman
I'd say his chances for a win are virtually 100%

(for the Peter-Pumpkin Look-alike contest!!)

9 posted on 09/29/2004 4:23:49 PM PDT by Joe 6-pack ("We deal in hard calibers and hot lead." - Roland Deschaines)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Maceman

You have to scroll far enough down through the mumbo-jumbo to get to where they factor in the dead voters, which apparently swings 3 states with 47 electoral votes from Bush to orange julius.


10 posted on 09/29/2004 4:23:53 PM PDT by Founding Father
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Maceman

"STATE MODEL
MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
5000 Election Trials"


I guess, if we had the same election 5000 times, maybe some of the time he would win.

But hopefully, we'll only have the election of Bush vs. Kerry ONCE and on that one, he is toast.


11 posted on 09/29/2004 4:24:00 PM PDT by QQQQQ (Defeat Kerry. Support the SwiftVets. Keep the ads on the air. http://www.swiftvets.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Petronski

"But he does know how to use Excel."

Excel with a Monte Carlo add in.


12 posted on 09/29/2004 4:24:19 PM PDT by Warlord
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

Comment #13 Removed by Moderator

To: Maceman
This is inane. The part where they break down the states, where did they get these polling numbers? Moveon.org? Actually, I would be happy if BC04 believes this, as they will fight harder and harder.
14 posted on 09/29/2004 4:25:37 PM PDT by Sthitch
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Comment #15 Removed by Moderator

To: Maceman

I go by the British Bookies odds, they have been favoring Bush. Haven't seen them lately. Anybody got new Bookie info?


16 posted on 09/29/2004 4:26:41 PM PDT by Lockbar (Worried about lead poisoning? Then stop eating the paint chips, Dummy!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Names Ash Housewares

You have to remember the fraud factor.


17 posted on 09/29/2004 4:27:49 PM PDT by rushmom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: HitmanNY

All models are wrong. Some models are useful. This model is not useful, except perhaps to hold down Valium intake amongst the liberals for another day.


18 posted on 09/29/2004 4:27:55 PM PDT by PeoplesRepublicOfWashington (Kerry/Edwards--When you're full of it you need two johns.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Maceman
Reminds me of an old Warner Brothers cartoon...Porky Pig hires a robot cat...his house ends up destroyed, but Porky thinks he's finally rid of that "darn old mouse"....

Mouse: "Shall I tell him?"

Shall we tell them?

19 posted on 09/29/2004 4:29:28 PM PDT by Rocko ("... for Kerry the new world war is just a wedge issue.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Maceman
John Kerry Has an 85% Chance of WINNING!!!

Where? France?

20 posted on 09/29/2004 4:29:39 PM PDT by Right_in_Virginia
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-46 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson