Posted on 06/25/2006 8:03:00 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Once burned, twice shy: That’s simply another way of saying that I’m more cautious about handicapping the Montana Senate race than I am other Senate contests.
Just days before the 2000 elections, my newsletter moved GOP Sen. Conrad Burns from “Toss-up” to “Lean Takeover.” That rating change was based on information I had gathered about late polling data showing Burns well under 50 percent in his bid for a third term and Democratic challenger Brian Schweitzer pulling even with Burns.
From that evidence, I concluded that the Senator was likely to lose to Schweitzer, a likable, energetic Democrat who had run an effective campaign that took advantage of the Republican’s gaffes and used the issue of prescription drugs effectively.
Burns won that race with 50.6 percent of the vote (to Schweitzer’s 47.2 percent) at the same time that four GOP Senators — Bill Roth (Del.), Rod Grams (Minn.), Slade Gorton (Wash.) and Spencer Abraham (Mich.) — were defeated.
I haven’t forgotten Burns’ victory that cycle. It taught me something about the Senator’s appeal and the state’s political bent, and I have kept it in mind ever since when I have been asked about Burns’ standing back home.
Burns is clearly in trouble once again, and even Republican operatives worry that he may not be able to swim against the strong Democratic tide this November. The Senator’s easy 1994 victory is misleading given the GOP wave that year. His 1988 and 2000 victories were narrow, and polling this cycle strongly suggests that he is now fighting for his political life.
(Excerpt) Read more at rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com ...
Speaking for myself, I am not enthusiastic about this race. I wish that Conrad Burns would drop out.
What Burns needs to tell the people of Montana is the a vote for Tester is a vote for Kenedy and Pelosi. It is a vote for the Senate amnesty bill and for big government.
He can win this but he's got to drop the homespun commercials and take the fight to Tester in plain and simple language. We can't afford another Max Baccus.
Disagree. While I didn't vote for him, Montana voters chose him to represent the GOP in November. So be it. That said, I will support Conrad Burns because I refuse to vote for a democrat.
http://www.gopsenators.com/newsdesk/audiovideo/tester.aspx
The NRSC is now running that somewhat amusing ad in Montana.
http://www.gopsenators.com/newsdesk/audiovideo/tester.aspx
Have you see that ad running any?
No, I've heard it on the radio though. It comes across better with the video.
Conditioning people to think liberal values when they see that haircut is pretty clever.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.