Heads UP - Serious Chatter

SERIOUS CHATTER INDICATES SOME HEAVY DUTY EVENTS ARE ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE IN OR RELATIVE TO IRAN.

Far bigger activity than Human Rights student demonstrations scheduled for Iran today. More when I get clearer details but it appears some serious political activity or plan has come into play.

As a side bar, note Iran has virtually stopped accepting Dollars for oil payments being made to it. This unlinking of the dollar from oil can create a worldwide disaster as the Dollar loses its underpinning - oil.

NOTE: the Dollar has already lost strength against other currencies in the past couple of weeks.

Central Banks would begin to lighten their Dollar holdings to minimize their losses as the value of the dollar declines, putting ever more pressure on the Dollar.

Even creating a run on it, similar to a run on a bank which becomes insolvent and depositors rushing to withdraw their money. Destabilizing the bank even further.

The downward spiral of the Dollar will soon drag down other currencies. One of the reasons we went into Iraq was to prevent this slippery slope. Russia, Saddam Hussein and a couple of other countries like Nigeria had put selling their oil mostly in Euros on the table.

Had OPEC been allowed to follow suit, the whole world, not just the USA would have suffered inconceivable economical dislocation.

Go to "Oil Story Revisited" via the Archive Details link in the left hand column. Far more dangerous than nuclear weapons, if the dollar crashes - and under some circumstances it will be hard, or impossible, to prevent this. The world economy crashes with it.

Because there was some vestige of sanity in the old Iranian Mullah leadership, till about a year ago, when Ahmadi-Nejad was "selected" President, mostly to protect their own enormous wealth, the Mullahs were careful not to destabilize the value of the Dollar.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was a destitute cleric at the time of the 1979 Khomeini revolution, fairly recently moved some two BILLION Dollars of personal assets from various holdings around the world into a couple of Moslem Asian countries like Malaysia, Brunei and also Singapore.

(Ahmadi-Nejad - on behalf of Iran, emptied Swiss bank vaults of gold bullion owned by Iran at around the same time).

Khamenei used to live in a two room dwelling in the poorest part of town feeding himself and his family through sporadic, tiny, charitable donations in the city of Mash'had in North-East Iran.

His only income came from joining (unsolicited) a multiple of other insignificant clerics at burials, following the casket or shroud to the grave and singing "dirges" hoping to receive a tip from the family and mourners.

By contrast, Ahmadi-Nejad, also coming from an impoverished family has lived frugally all his life, owns little or nothing and cannot imagine not being able to supply himself with the unleavened bread and Fetta cheese, tea and daily stew on which he lives. World crash or no world crash.

Interestingly, when "ayatollah" Khamenei was an indigent cleric, he was asked his philosophy about how he might operate were he to wake up and find himself the most powerful man in Iran. The allegory used was "find himself in the shoes of the Shah".

After protests he could not imagine himself in such a high position, he stated he would take the wealth of the nation and distribute it all among the populace, specially the poor, so nobody would have to face the misery and poverty he was enduring.

Look at the misery, torture, imprisonment and poverty he has inflicted since then on his erstwhile (beloved??) fellow citizens.

He showed the same mentality and ignorance of fiscal and economical requirements that Khomeini did when he arrived on scene in 1979. Both these ignorant clerics could recite the Koran but in all other subjects knew next to nothing - and I am not exaggerating. They resemble students who go to school forever but only study one subject - philosophy - to the exclusion of everything else.

Shortly after his return, Khomeini responded to a question about Iran's forthcoming budget, with "I have it on a piece of paper in my pocket!" Referring to what required several thick volumes (just as indexes) and suitcases in which to carry them to the Majliss (parliament) for ratification.

By the way, the self-righteous Ahmadi-Nejad, apparently is not as righteous as he pretends, reportedly passing sizeable contracts to his brother while mayor of Tehran and according to some sources lining his own pockets.

And the pockets of the representative of the Hojatieh spiritual leader, Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, attached his personal office/secretariat and "keeper of the gate" without whose approval nobody gets to see Ahmadi-Nejad.

Putting all this into perspective, Ahmadi-Nejad has suddenly ratcheted up his threats to cover the whole Western civilization, not just Israel, disappearing from the face of the earth. He only has a half dozen nukes, so he is certainly referring to his oil/currency disruptive capability.

A far deadlier weapon than the subject of nuclear weapons, which has kept focus off the radar screen of the news media, tactical and strategic analysts, intel assessments and those in power.

Hopefully, the new Democrat Congress will get over their myopic Bush bashing and rise to the occasion and literally help save the world.

If they wish to be around long enough to enjoy their win. Not politically but in real life as millions of Americans lose jobs, incomes etc., which even the US government cannot help overcome with Welfare or soup kitchens.

This applies in Spades to the European Union that still has its head stuck deep in the sand, pretending it cannot happen, when it certainly will. Unless stopped just as drastically as the drastic consequences of not doing so.

Hitler will have been a walk in the park compared to what we are about to receive.

I ask this question of all readers: better destroy 400,000 Revolutionary Guards and all of their equipment (simply burying the entrances to nuclear facilities will suffice for now on that aspect), perhaps inflict somewhere in the region of 40,000 civilian deaths as collateral damage and thus open the way for a suddenly freed populace to rise up and destroy the Mullahs - or play nice and civilized (they do not) and suffer tens of millions, perhaps hundreds of millions of casualties around the globe, in death and suffering when the global economy crashes?

Inconceivable? Not if you follow the dotted lines and know your global economy and how fragile it really is. There is not enough money in the world to buy up suddenly available dollars to bolster the currency, even if every Central Bank decided to do that instead of divesting itself out of self-preservation.

Think carefully about being goody-goody two shoes in this clash of cultures led by an Islamic nutcase.

I believe Iran at best is rated fourth largest exporter of crude oil. As for your comments on the Russians. No problem whatsoever. One thing we have to consider is not all the OPEC countries will like what Iran is up to. The Saudis, and the other countries on the Arabian peninsula as well as Canada are not going to screw the US. Same goes for the African countries.
Will Malaysia, Indonesia, and others in the Pacific go along with Iran.
Iran is one of some fifty plus countries that drill and export crud oil. And this will not be the first time the US dollar fluctuates. It has many times before and recovered.
Our Economy is not dependent on Iranian crude, nor what the Iranians do with their money. They are a little fish in the world economy.
I do not see how Iran is going to break the back of the US econonmy. We continue exporting huge amounts of raw materials and finished goods world wide, as well as using things we grow, build and design, manufacture internally.
Iran if anything is a very fragil country. They have little to offer other then their oil/gas, rugs, specialty fruit/nuts.
We can break them long before they can break us.
However. If. All the countries you mention as well as a number more where to go along with their demand, then yes, we will see the dollar drop. I have no problem with that. But again. This has happened many times before within other senarios. And the US economy did not cave in, only weaken to yet again gain strength. To many variables are not being considered in this equation. Iran is but one element in how US dollars are used around the world.

1) "They would be willing to create a global bloodbath to achieve their aims. They might not be willing to provoke a bloodbath that would result in the eradication of Islam with the US left standing at the end."

2) "I'm assuming at least some rationality in the sense of them wanting to achieve their objective, rather than victory-less suicide"

1)

If the scenario of the currency change comes to pass, there will be parts, numerous smallish enclaves, of America that survive - perhaps in my estimate one third of the population might get by but sink to virtual hunter gatherer levels. Internal territorial squabbles over food supplies, raids against each other would bring us back to the time of the pilgrims and the Wild Wild West.

We would be too busy killing each other over food or possessions, somewhat per the gang warfare among Crips and Bloods or mindless, senseless intergang rivalry we read about today. And barely fathom or feel.

The USA would not survive in the terms you envisage, nor would the Islamic countries spread around the world perish the way you portray or infer.

Most of these are at third world level and have a much greater agricultural rather than agro-Industrial profile, certainly not industrial. Like Ahmadi-Nejad and his tea, cheese and daily stew, they will get by with their chickens and ducks. Much as they do now. (Just to encapsulate).

They are far more likely to survive in large numbers than the USA and European populations. Even if their countries sink into chaos and robber barons and tribal chieftains exact tolls and rule certain areas like times of old.

2)

You mis-state their objectives, which are not rational - nor were in the past even to revolution founder Ayatollah Khomeini,who banned the Hojatieh sect that now rules Iran through Ahmadi-Nejad and his mentor Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi.

Their sole objective is the return of their Messiah the 12th Imam. To achieve this they must destroy everything they can - THEMSELVES included - to create enough misery and suffering to get the attention of the 12th Imam and make it worthwile (in their fanatical minds) for him to bother with the world and return to redeem it.

NOTE: His return saves Islam and spreads it across the planet, so even if the USA were to survive, as you suggest, he would take care of that when he descends and turn everyone into Moslems. So why would that not be a TOTAL victory in their "unusual" minds?

You describe an objective that has logic and common sense as the basis. They have neither in their mix.

Remember, martyrdom is an honor and a sure path to eternal salvation in paradise. So why worry about being destroyed? Or in context care about destroying their fellow countrymen for the sake of their salvation? Voluntary or involuntary does not enter their minds. They are on a mission for Allah.

What makes you pause to even think they care? Because Ahmadi-Nejad does not rant and rave while foaming at the mouth on TV? He is not THAT kind of insane. He is the "cold-blooded", determined zealot, type of insane.

This is all so far removed from our culture, mind sets and beliefs that we fail to have a slightest concept of what goes on inside their heads. You have to have met them and lived among them. Or among similar ones. Usually small sects in distant parts of the world.

The closest you and most of us can come is to consider cults and our surface knowledge of them. But even then we do so at a distance, as spectators, never able to fathom their deepest thoughts and motivations.

You cannot do so using your Western mind - unless you can perform a wrenching shift from normal human patterns to those of an unfamiliar type of zealot you have never encountered and whom, until August 2005, you had no chance to observe, nor ever even heard about.

Anyone reading this has to shift mental gears when trying to assess what we face. For most of us it is beyond the range of our radar.

Valiant response but too many flaws. Some responses to your assumptions:

Once again it is NOT oil but currency that can/will sink us. This shift will crash the dollar and in very short time crash every other currency in the world. So who will buy our goods - as you state?

Every Arab country, on the Peninsula or not, even with the best intentions, cannot oppose a nuclear Iran. The risk of being attacked, even with conventional weapons by an almost one million man military and paramilitary force available to Iran with enough fairly decent equipment and armor, gives all the Persian Gulf countries pause, let alone if they suddenly have a nuclear aggressor.

Yes, the Asian countries, generally Moslem or with huge Moslem sectors in their populations will definitely back Iran's position - not the USA - specially if we back down in Iraq and the region as per the Baker proposals.

You are confusing a dollar "fluctuation" with a total and irreversible dollar crash. A probable drop in the region of 40% (according to far more knowledgeable economists than I could ever be) in a matter of weeks or at best months. That size of "fluctuation" is like a nose dive of an aircraft from which it cannot pull out.

Again, you miss the point. This has nothing to do with Iran's participation in our economy, nor even within the world at large. It is what the little fish can do to the dollar - and it only takes a little fish to ruin it - which will do the damage as described.

You mention "We continue exporting huge amounts of raw materials and finished goods world wide, as well as using things we grow, build and design, manufacture internally."

Some of the "Internal" part will help one third of our nation survive. Forget the export part. NO other country will have money to buy our exports or import anything from anywhere - not too long after a dollar crash. And the consequent crash of their own money.

It does not take all or many other countries for this to occur. Do read the "Oil Story Revisited" on http://www.antimullah.com by going there and clicking on the Archive Details link in the left hand column to find the Permalink. More details are given there, so I do not wish to reinvent the wheel.

And no, this has NEVER happened before, so that's a false element in your view of things and Iran does not have to be anything more than the little fish it is - as you describe it - wreak the havoc described.

Somewhat like the tiny, transparent box jellyfish, less than a half inch across, found in Australia, whose tiny tentacle venom can kill a human quite easily. Or cause excrutiating pain for quite a long period of time if it fails to terminate you.

That's Iran's role in this scenario. It's all it takes.

Project your mind and visualize. You'll see it.

Oh, please. For as long as the world has been in existence, there have been worry warts (sp?) who could not seem to go a day without predicting some sort of inevitable doom. Of course, if you are consistent and predict gloom and doom constantly, then eventually you may be partially right.

When I hear all this, it sounds so familiar to the same crud I have heard all my life. First thing I remember was the fear of a nuclear war with Russia. Then it moved into deficits and debt.Then terrorism. Now it is currency. It is always going to be something. And eventually, sure, something at some time will cause some economic catastrophe.

You say there are experts much smarter than you that agree with you. But I contend that there are plenty of experts much smarter than you that disagree, No one can predict the future. Anyone who tells you different is selling something.

Are you telling me that the Soviets were not a threat? Their nukes were not poised at us? Ever?

These threats failed to happen because some people changed the path sufficiently to dodge the bullet. Like Reagan and the Soviets. (The Soviets were logical compared to today's Islamic Iran, so don't equate the threats).

The Soviets falsely appear to have had greater destructive power because of their huge nuclear capability. The currency threat was not even on the horizon until the suicidal Islamic groups, in the form of suicidal countries like Islamic Iran, instead of individual suicide bombers, came into power. Hamas and Hezbollah verge on this "me too, martyrdom" scene too.

Had Carter won a second term, the deficits you mention with disdain would have happened the way the "gloomers" stated. Luckily someone else won. Happened to be Reagan, who also deflected the nukes events from the Soviets.

You and I have had the good fortune, sporadically, to have had some people in power who took action against these "doom and gloom scenarios" and made them go away or alleviated them.

Kennedy and Cuban missiles for instance. Or was that, too, just crying wolf? It wasn't and would have had dire consequences.

This does not mean the doom and gloom, like the warning I am shouting out as loudly as I can, is invalid. It needs action to remove it.

What's horrific now is that we have the most insane finger on the "destroy the world" button since Hitler, facing not Reagan but the most absolutely anti-American, appeasist group of Dems ever, like Pelosi, Leahy etc., who will self-destruct the USA to get Bush.

Like burning down your barn to get the rats. (Pun in there somewhere?)

You, like so many of us, have lived through good and bad times, where the bad has been "softened" to where it has been bearable. Only just in the 1930's. So you argue optimistically, based on good luck and some power plays by men like Bush - like going into Iraq and preventing oil disconnecting from the dollar to some other form of payment. Doesn't matter what that is as long as it is no longer the Dollar.

For the first time in my fairly long life, given the prevailing factors, I no longer believe we can achieve this with the givens we face.

Which we have NEVER had to face before. And around which we totally fail to wrap our minds.

Your optimism is laudable and a brave positive aspect of America but there is a time and place where whistling in the dark no longer suffices and we are not walking past a cemetary but past a bunch of lunatic murderers ready, willing and sadly now able to pounce and slit our throats.

Right now the only viable option, horrible as it may appear to be, is to do whatis outlined in "Iran, Final Justified Solution" on http://www.antimullah.com (check View Archive Details for exact link).

But first we have to realize the extent of what we face - with only Hitler as a "prior" and long forgotten indicator and dig deep to find the reolve to do what needs to be done.

The world is currently in a similar state to a patient with fairly advanced cancer, which the doctors either failed to spot or have avoided badly needed surgery. Now they can have second, third and thousandth opinions to avoid doing what MUST be done.

The result? Eventually send the patient home to die as the cancer will no longer be operable or thepatient dies due to their indecision and neglect.

You and I and every other American - and millions of other nationals around the world - are the patient.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.