[daylilly]

I hope I got the author right on this one. It was the name on the post. This is from a blog.

Every election that happens, this problem will get worse if the author is correct about the lack of landlines and increasing cell phone useage. Will the pollsters be able to adapt, and if you try other methods of polling there might be new ways to abuse them.

I'm not an expert on polling, so I hope others will contribute their thoughts on this.

[the invisib1e hand]

Thoughts on growing cell phone use...

Once they get above about 3 pounds, I just can't use 'em anymore. Fortunately I have a slow-growing model.

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

It is a serious issue. However, there are some tried and (relatively) true ways to deal with the problem.

One way is to use a preselected panel to select interviewees from — rather than just randomly dialing the population at large. A panel comprises a large number of preselected volunteers, who agree to be surveyed on occasion (often in exchange for money or prizes). Since the location and demographics of a panel are known in advance, it’s not difficult to chose a “representative” sample for each poll. The panel would include a proportionate number of cell-phone users.

Another advantage of panels is that response rate is usually far better than it is for random dialing to the population at large. Response-rate bias is one of the most serious sources of error in polls & is not easy to quantify. Panels have a big edge in reducing response rate bias.

[cripplecreek]

I don’t answer any calls that show up on my caller ID as blocked or unavailable and I almost never get incoming calls on my cell.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

Time to eat crow. I told you in that one thread that these polls are worthless.

[muawiyah]

One technique currently being implemented for product marketing effectiveness sampling calls a gazillion folks at randomly selected numbers, then creates the sample cell descriptions after the calls.

Another technique solicits responses to a series of questions on the net. The secondary questions are analyzed to identify groups, then the data is recast according to other statistical evidence concerning the makeup of the group.

Neither technique relies on landline "only" folks.

So far I haven't seen any results for this approach but would imagine the first guy to figure it out is going to make hundreds of millions of dollars.

[Former War Criminal]

The only poll I care about will be taken on November 4, 2008 (11/5/2008 if you are from DU).

Does the name “Thomas Dewey” ring a bell?