Posted on 10/26/2008 6:42:41 PM PDT by Free ThinkerNY
All the hand-wringing about whether Obama can hold Pennsylvania - forget it, he’s got it. Virginia? McCain - no question. Interesting stuff from HillBuzz (who has really been getting the goods) via my buddy Clyde at My Aisling.
I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV. She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats.
She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia. She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.
Anyway, her companies conclusion is that the election will come down to Colorado, New Hampshire and the Republican leaning district in Maine, which in her opinion might very well decide the Presidency (apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table). She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm piss”.
So it comes down to Maine, huh? Ayuh.
PA? Think Fat Jack “the game changer.”
So in her opinion things are very close as it stands today. In a week a lot can happen and I hope it does in our favor.
If it is true, then I think McCain could still win PA... If it is true..
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2100203/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2115762/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2116058/posts
Helpful? Maybe, maybe not.
prayers up for McCain/Palin
interesting post
So, another way to put this:
McCain’s chances of winning PA are better than Obama’s chances of winning VA.
Please note carefully what is said here:
Obama has a 55% chance of winning PA and *not* he will get 55% of the vote in PA. That means JM has a fighting 45% chance.
And don’t forget the PUMAs whose general policy is to misleadingly tell posters they will vote for Obie
You know; I hear people talking about B. Hussein’s poll numbers suppressing the GOP voter turnout.
Folks, there is no way McCain supporters are going to stay home and not vote to keep the only Democrat they hate more than they ever hated the Clintons, out of the Oval Office. No way! Forget suppressing the GOP vote.
Now, the Obamaites might get overconfident and fiddle-fart away their time and vote. But, not the Obama haters; no way.
OOPS typo. ‘Pollsters’ not ‘posters’.
McCain should win PA and based on the FR discussion last night - McCain could and may win NM. If McCain did the same groundwork in CO he has done in NM then CO should go our way.
In addition, I think Palin met with Dobson in CO. Dobson was lukewarm on McCain but I think he is onboard because of Sarah.
I would be surpised if Obama wins NH. I think McCain takes NH.
obama will not win pa
I do know that finally, today, during football, I saw 4 McCain ads to 1 0bama ad on a Washington, DC TV station.
Perhaps McCain’s strategy is to blitz the last week and utilize the “Bush DUI” type strategy.
I like your “reasonings” but one point I need to make is Dobson came out for McCain weeks ago. This is no new development; he’s been “on board” for awhile.
The Phillies will win the World Series and McCain will win PA as well as the election!
Any ACORN folks in Maine?
I wouldn’t be too sure about PA.
I think so too.. If McCain takes NH and PA it is over for the Messiah..
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