After 30 years (nothing much changed), what you say is probably a very good conclusion.
IMHO petroleum inventories will rise through the winter, and world demand will decline. US imports have fallen since a year ago, so have US exports; US production has risen. Having inventories on the market, already pumped up, will build a cushion for whatever kind of war happens. If Iran guesses the same, it’ll start a war soon (maybe within the month), via proxies, against Israel.